{"id":206323,"date":"2025-07-14T12:51:55","date_gmt":"2025-07-14T16:51:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/looking-forward-to-a-big-week\/"},"modified":"2025-07-16T13:00:46","modified_gmt":"2025-07-16T13:00:46","slug":"looking-forward-to-a-big-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/looking-forward-to-a-big-week\/","title":{"rendered":"Looking Forward to a Big Week"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Today continues the recent streak of relatively data-free trading days.  There were literally no economic releases scheduled for this morning, which was the case last Monday; and while there were few of consequence last week, there are several potential market movers in the coming days.  Stocks don\u2019t seem particularly concerned, of course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The parade of tariff news continued apace over the weekend, with the announcement of 30% levies on goods from Mexico and the EU effective August 1st<\/sup>.\u00a0 Stocks barely sold off on Friday after learning of a similar announcement regarding Canada and the threat of a 50% tariff on Brazil, and today, rather than simply shrugging off the worst of the overnight selling \u2013 which was relatively muted to begin with \u2013 stocks moved into positive territory by late morning.\u00a0 It\u2019s quite clear that when it comes to tariffs, the \u201chalf-life\u201d of dips continues to shrink<\/a>.\u00a0 Might we get to a point where bad news is simply ignored or even gets greeted as good news simply to avoid a buyable dip?\u00a0 On the tariff front at least, it appears that \u201cso you\u2019re telling me there\u2019s a<\/a> <\/a>chance<\/a>\u201d remains the mantra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s not quite so clear that stocks are as immune from economic data as they are about tariff threats.\u00a0 After a dearth of meaningful reports, we get two key inflation measures in rapid succession tomorrow (CPI) and Wednesday (PPI).\u00a0 The good news is that those two measures have been relatively tame in recent months, with Core CPI and PPI both rising at less than 2% annualized rates on three- and four-month bases.\u00a0 Unfortunately, both measures are expected to rise this week, with Core CPI heading to 0.3% and Core PPI moving up to 0.2% on a monthly basis after both rose 0.1% on that basis in May.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, we learn about the Fed\u2019s Beige Book on Wednesday, Retail Sales on Thursday, and University of Michigan Sentiment on Friday, among other reports.\u00a0 Economists will be busy<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So will industry analysts, particularly those who cover financial stocks.\u00a0 The unofficial start to earnings season is tomorrow, when JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), and others report, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) and more on Wednesday.\u00a0 I\u2019ve never been a fan<\/a> of the fact that large banks typically kick off the festivities, since they are uniquely dependent upon the shape of the yield curve and trading results, among other idiosyncrasies.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, the commentary from their managements can be quite illuminating, since they are able to shed light upon the behavior of their customers large and small.  Frankly, it provides a better guide to the results from other corporations than whether a particular bank had a good quarter in, say, commodities trading.  Other big names reporting later this week are Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) on Wednesday, and Abbott Laboratories (ABT) on Thursday.  Most of the largest tech stocks are several days away, though Netflix (NFLX) kicks off that sector after Thursday\u2019s close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, we would be remiss if we didn\u2019t make note of \u201ccrypto week\u201d, the convergence of three bills making their way through Congress<\/a>.  There is stablecoin regulation, a regulatory framework for cryptos, and a ban on Federal Reserve banks issuing digital currencies to individuals.  While the original enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies was based upon their relative anarchy, they now benefit when greater regulatory clarity seems nearer.  That has certainly been the case over the past week, where bitcoin had risen more than 10% over recent days.  We learned this morning that the bump was abetted by Strategy\u2019s (MSTR) purchase of about $472 million worth of bitcoin last week<\/a>, after it took an unexpected respite from purchases in the prior week.  It will be up to Congress to keep up the enthusiasm \u2013 an interesting bet for the crypto faithful. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today continues the recent streak of relatively data-free trading days. There were literally no economic releases scheduled for this morning, which was the case last Monday; and while there were few of consequence last week, there are several potential market movers in the coming days. 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