{"id":206199,"date":"2025-07-08T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-08T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/high-uncertainty-does-not-mean-indefinite-fed-inaction\/"},"modified":"2025-07-08T10:45:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-08T14:45:00","slug":"high-uncertainty-does-not-mean-indefinite-fed-inaction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/high-uncertainty-does-not-mean-indefinite-fed-inaction\/","title":{"rendered":"High uncertainty doesn\u2019t mean indefinite Fed inaction"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Current macro and geopolitical uncertainty make high-confidence forecasting extremely difficult right now. Nevertheless, the case for multiple Fed rate cuts sooner rather than later remains compelling because:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Inflation risks are manageable<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Labor market erosion is intensifying<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Policy is tight \u2014 and in some ways getting tighter, as the delayed impact of earlier tightening means some borrowing costs continue to rise even as the Fed cuts<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-fed-should-focus-on-the-labor-market-cut-three-times\">The Fed should focus on the labor market, cut three times<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The June summary of economic projections (SEP) maintained a median expectation of two Fed rate cuts this year. However, just a single \u201cdot\u201d now divides the two- versus one-cut scenarios, not to mention that seven of 19 FOMC members anticipate no cuts at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The new SEP shows higher inflation and lower growth \u2014 and a whole lot more uncertainty about which of these risks should be prioritized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite tariffs and the evolving Middle East situation, we think the Federal Reserve (Fed) should pay more attention to the deteriorating labor market. Because policy works with such long lags, delaying the cuts at this stage would unnecessarily exacerbate recession risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We therefore retain our long-standing call for 75 basis points of cuts this year for the following three reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-inflation-risks-are-manageable\">Inflation risks are manageable<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>When the Fed last lowered interest rates in December 2024, headline PCE (personal consumption expenditure) inflation was 2.6% y\/y and core PCE inflation was 2.9% y\/y. By May 2025, the two measures had eased to 2.1% and 2.6% y\/y, respectively. In other words, despite inflationary tariff developments, notable further inflation progress has been achieved in the interim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, inflation will rise in coming months as tariff effects eventually bleed into the data, but the uptick should be modest given offsetting disinflationary forces elsewhere, particularly in shelter, insurance, and discretionary services. With the marginal exception of two months in 2023, the FHFA data shows home price inflation now running at the lowest level since 2012. Various rent inflation metrics suggest some further moderation in this space. Hence, we project core PCE inflation at 2.8% y\/y in Q4, below the latest SEP median forecast of 3.1% y\/y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"550\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/figure-1-us-inflation-we-1100x550.png\" alt=\"us inflation well behaved as shelter offers tariff offset\" class=\"wp-image-206207 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/figure-1-us-inflation-we-1100x550.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/figure-1-us-inflation-we-700x350.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/figure-1-us-inflation-we-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/figure-1-us-inflation-we-768x384.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/figure-1-us-inflation-we-1536x768.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/figure-1-us-inflation-we.png 1800w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/550;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Figure 2: US labor market is loosening visibly<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.ssga.com\/library-content\/assets\/images\/global\/macroeconomics\/2025\/us-labor-market-is-loosening-visibly.png\" alt=\"US labor market is loosening visibly \" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Labor market erosion is intensifying<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The US unemployment rate has been remarkably stable over the past year, oscillating within an extremely narrow 0.2 percentage point range. It stood at 4.2% from March to May, precisely at the Fed\u2019s presumed equilibrium or NAIRU level (non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But with every other labor market indicator out there suggesting broadening erosion, it seems only a matter of time before the unemployment rate starts rising (Figures 2 and 3). In fact, had it not been for an unusually large decline in the labor force participation rate in May, we might have already seen an increase. Why? Because the pace of hiring is slowing and there is some evidence that layoffs are starting to broaden beyond the government sector, where DOGE actions triggered a severe spike in layoffs in February and March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the past four months, we\u2019ve recorded three of the four highest private sector layoffs since 2012. It is incredibly important for the Fed to stem this increase if we are to preserve the soft landing and avoid a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We feel strongly that some rate cuts now\/soon would not make a difference to the inflation trajectory given inflationary pressures stem from tariffs, not from an accommodative monetary policy. But they could make a big difference in fending off a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"550\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/figure-3-us-labor-market-1100x550.png\" alt=\"us labor market more vulnerable now\" class=\"wp-image-206205 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/figure-3-us-labor-market-1100x550.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/figure-3-us-labor-market-700x350.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/figure-3-us-labor-market-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/figure-3-us-labor-market-768x384.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/figure-3-us-labor-market-1536x768.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/figure-3-us-labor-market.png 1800w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/550;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssga.com\/us\/en\/individual\/insights\/high-uncertainty-does-not-mean-indefinite-fed-inaction\">READ MORE HERE<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted on July 8, 2025 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssga.com\/us\/en\/individual\/insights\/high-uncertainty-does-not-mean-indefinite-fed-inaction\">High uncertainty doesn\u2019t mean indefinite Fed inaction<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Current macro and geopolitical uncertainty make high-confidence forecasting extremely difficult right now. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":173,"featured_media":8499,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[462],"class_list":{"0":"post-206199","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-state-street-global-advisors"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>High uncertainty doesn\u2019t mean indefinite Fed inaction<\/title>\n<meta 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