{"id":206024,"date":"2025-06-30T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-30T14:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-june-30-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-07-08T20:03:33","modified_gmt":"2025-07-08T20:03:33","slug":"weekly-market-recap-week-of-june-30-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-june-30-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: Week of June 30, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Markit Composite PMI fell to 52.8 in June<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer confidence fell to 93.0 in June<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline PCE rose 0.1% m\/m and 2.3% y\/y<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Jolts \/ job report<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ISM PMIs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The budget reconciliation bill, currently winding its way to the president\u2019s desk, includes many provisions that will have significant impacts on the economy for years to come. Central to the bill is the extension of personal tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that were due to expire at the end of this year. The administration hopes to partially offset revenue losses from these and new tax cuts with environmental tax credit reforms and tariff revenues. However, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the House version of the bill passed in May would increase the federal deficit over the next 10 years by ~$2.8 trillion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the chart of the week, the federal deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected out to 2032 using these estimates but also adding in the impact of tariff revenues and an assumption that the new tax cuts (like the old ones) are not actually allowed to expire. On tariffs, we assume increases in the effective tariff rate of 4% for fiscal 2025 and 10% thereafter, relative to the baseline, and assume that nominal goods imports increase at a 3% annual rate throughout the forecast. This results in a deficit\/GDP ratio of between 6% and 7% from fiscal 2026 on, which would push the federal debt as a share of GDP to over 120% by 2032, from 98.2% at the end of fiscal 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For investors, this rising level of debt means more Treasury issuance, boosting yields but limiting the potential for a Treasury rally to offset some future stock market slump. This underscores the need for broader sources of diversification, including alternatives, as the U.S. fiscal situation continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1011\" height=\"405\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-06-30-104530.png\" alt=\"Federal deficit as a share of GDP\" class=\"wp-image-206025 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-06-30-104530.png 1011w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-06-30-104530-700x280.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-06-30-104530-300x120.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-06-30-104530-768x308.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1011px) 100vw, 1011px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1011px; aspect-ratio: 1011\/405;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart of the Week: Source: Census Bureau, Congressional Budget<br>Office, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The extended provisions<br>assume that certain tax provisions set to expire in FY28 are made<br>permanent. Years shown are fiscal years.<br>Thought of the week: Source: Census Bureau, Congressional Budget<br>Office, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted June 30, 2025 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2025 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., June 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of June 30, 2025 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights the budget bill&#8217;s impact, pushing federal debt over 120% of GDP by 2032, with a deficit\/GDP ratio of 6-7% by 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":206025,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[3662,3663,3664,3665,3666,3667],"contributors-categories":[429],"class_list":{"0":"post-206024","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-budget-bill-impact","14":"tag-fiscal-outlook","15":"tag-june-30-2025","16":"tag-pmi-and-pce-data","17":"tag-treasury-market-dynamics","18":"tag-weekly-recap","19":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast 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