{"id":205961,"date":"2025-06-25T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-25T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/blue-line-futures-research-6-25-25\/"},"modified":"2025-06-26T14:26:33","modified_gmt":"2025-06-26T14:26:33","slug":"blue-line-futures-research-6-25-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/futures\/blue-line-futures-research-6-25-25\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Line Futures Research 6.25.25"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

MORNING EXPRESS: E-mini S&P (September) \/ E-mini NQ (September)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

S&P, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 6146.25, up 69.25
NQ, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 22,412.75, up 339.25<\/p>\n\n\n\n

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures closed within 2% of a record high. That said, the QQQ ETF is on the one-inch line of its record, set on February 19th. Better-than-expected PMIs on Monday, semiconductor tailwinds, and the Iran-Israel ceasefire have all been a tailwind from Monday\u2019s intraday low. Yesterday\u2019s tape was certainly interesting, and we have often seen some give-back intraday after such a strong overnight. Although this may have been the case on Fed Chair Powell\u2019s hawkish prepared speech for his Congressional Testimony, he hinted at flexibility during his questioning. The CME\u2019s FedWatch Tool only shows a 20.7% probability of a 25bps cut at the July meeting, up from 12.5% one week ago when the Chair was direct and spoke of being cautious and patient in the timing of a policy adjustment at his FOMC press conference. He testifies before Congress again today, beginning at 9:00 am CT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Build Permits are due at 7:30 am CT, New Home Sales at 9:00 am CT, and a 5-year Note auction at noon CT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ENERGY UPDATE: <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WTI Crude Oil Futures (August Futures)
Yesterday\u2019s Settlement: 64.37, -4.14 [-6.04%]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crude futures fell sharply once again yesterday as the conflict between Iran and Israel, in the opinion of markets, reached its conclusion. President Trump declared a ceasefire and threatened Israel if it didn\u2019t comply, but an official truce between Iran and Israel has not been signed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Trump commented yesterday that China was \u201cfree to buy Iranian oil,\u201d which aided in the sell-off. Markets took this as a sign that tighter sanctions on Iran\u2019s crude oil exports would not be imposed, alongside general confusion, as Iranian oil has been sanctioned for years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shortly after crude\u2019s settlement, the NYT and CNN reported that the majority of Iran\u2019s nuclear enrichment capabilities had not been destroyed in US strikes. This caused a slight bump to crude futures through the latter hours of the US session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Trump and his team denied these reports, insisting Iran\u2019s nuclear program is \u201ccompletely destroyed\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, +0.43 [+0.67%] to 64.80<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The macro environment is trading mixed, with the Dollar stronger, equities higher \/ flat, and treasuries nearly unchanged. The commodity complex is generally weaker on the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stories surrounding Iran\u2019s nuclear program, which may not have been \u201ccompletely destroyed,\u201d are buoying CL prices alongside another bullish API report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Data Releases:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last night\u2019s API release was as follows [thousand bbls]:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crude: -4,280
Gasoline: +764
Distillates: -1,030
Estimates for today\u2019s EIA report are as follows [thousand bbls]:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crude: -1,100 estimate
Gasoline: +500 estimate
Distillates: +1,000 estimate
Refinery Utilization: +0.70% estimate<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the API trending bullish, traders will be on the lookout for another bullish EIA report. Last week\u2019s EIA figures showed a sharp drawdown in Crude inventories.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted June 25, 2025 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Crude futures fell sharply once again yesterday as the conflict between Iran and Israel, in the opinion of markets, reached its conclusion. 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