{"id":205923,"date":"2025-06-23T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/the-fed-and-robotaxis-outweighing-geopolitics\/"},"modified":"2025-06-24T16:57:29","modified_gmt":"2025-06-24T16:57:29","slug":"the-fed-and-robotaxis-outweighing-geopolitics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-fed-and-robotaxis-outweighing-geopolitics\/","title":{"rendered":"The Fed and Robotaxis Outweighing Geopolitics"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Ten days ago, after Israeli warplanes first attacked Iranian installations, we wrote a piece about how a major geopolitical event was once again greeted with a relative yawn from the market<\/a>.\u00a0 On Saturday night, US warplanes upped the stakes, but stocks recovered after a relatively rocky overnight session and turned higher when US markets opened this morning.\u00a0 Quite frankly, if oil traders aren\u2019t too concerned about events involving Iran, it is difficult for their equity counterparts to maintain a major case of nerves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have frequently asserted that commodity and Treasury markets \u2013 not stocks<\/a> — are the bellwethers for interpreting economic risk when geopolitical events occur.  Commodities prices are laser-focused on supply and demand, while Treasuries are the beneficiary of \u201cflight to safety\u201d trades.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the Middle East dominates global energy production, I was primarily focused upon oil futures last night.  The initial jump of about 5% seemed proportionate with the incremental risk that Iran might harass or otherwise impede tankers using the Strait of Hormuz.  Treasury yields declined modestly as well, reinforcing the notion of risk aversion.  But stocks never really cracked, with ES futures falling by about \u00bd%, but not much further.  As the night wore on, without any overt action from Iran to disrupt oil markets, most financial markets returned to relative normalcy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s why: Saturday night\u2019s news was highly meaningful geopolitically, but far less so from a market viewpoint.\u00a0 The reaction once again fit with what we recently wrote<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have always contended<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0that when push comes to shove, in contrast to commodities and bond investors, equity investors are not particularly concerned with geopolitics. We\u2019re good at assessing how specific events might affect the variables that directly influence stock valuations \u2013 revenues, earnings, and cash flows \u2013 but far less so when it comes to relatively nebulous events.\u00a0 A conflict between Israel and Iran could metastasize in all sorts of nasty ways, but quite frankly, the Israeli economy is too small to affect many multinationals\u2019 bottom lines, and Iran has been isolated from the global economy for decades.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We noted then that unless the Iran situation offered a meaningful reason why those events might adversely affect stock prices \u2013 and little outside of an oil shock would do that \u2013 then there is little need for investors to change their views on stocks in the short term.  That said, it would be na\u00efve to expect no response from Iran (cyberattacks and terrorism are threats outside of the relatively extreme option of disrupting global oil supplies).  The incremental risk is why we see VIX remain relatively elevated even as stocks are generally higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, with no overt rationale for an immediate \u201cfreak out\u201d, stock traders focused on the positives.  The rollout of robotaxis in Austin, TX was good for a 10% bounce in Tesla (TSLA) stock, in turn giving a lift to the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) indices.  It is nigh impossible to expect that the initial tests will be profitable, considering that the starting price is $4.20 per ride (ok, we get it) and Waymo is yet to turn a profit in its more extensive operations, but traders are understandably hopeful that this development is a concrete step toward validating the futurism that is baked into TSLA\u2019s lofty valuation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

More importantly from a macro viewpoint was this morning\u2019s softer rate stance from Fed governor Michelle Bowman.\u00a0 In a speech this morning, she implied that she would be open to supporting a rate cut<\/a> as early as July.\u00a0 Coming on the heels of similar comments on Friday<\/a> from Fed governor Christopher Waller, it is understandable why markets would respond favorably \u2013 especially considering that Ms. Bowman was the only dissenter<\/a> when the Fed cut rates last September.\u00a0 In response, short-term interest rates fell sharply, with 2-year notes rates diving by about 10 basis points during the morning.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crucially, this was not a flight to safety, but instead a reassessment of the likelihood of rate cuts.\u00a0 On Wednesday, Fed Funds futures were pricing in a roughly 71% chance of a rate cut in September and just under two cuts by December.\u00a0 There is now a full cut priced in for September and a 30% chance of an additional cut by December.\u00a0 (July odds have risen only from about 10% to about 22%, however).\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One thing to keep in mind \u2013 things can change quickly.  Concerns about Qatar\u2019s airspace and the potential for an Iranian assault on the US base in that country have risen while I was typing this piece.  We\u2019ll also get two days of Congressional testimony from Chair Powell tomorrow and Wednesday to learn whether he agrees with his colleagues.  Stay tuned to the news!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ten days ago, after Israeli warplanes first attacked Iranian installations, we wrote a piece about how a major geopolitical event was once again greeted with a relative yawn from the market. On Saturday night, US warplanes upped the stakes, but stocks recovered after a relatively rocky overnight session and turned higher when US markets opened this morning. Quite frankly, if oil traders aren\u2019t too concerned about events involving Iran, it is difficult for their equity counterparts to maintain a major case of nerves.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":205924,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,146,147,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[695,311,810,3592,3593,3594,688,3595,936,367,745],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-205923","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-equities","16":"tag-fed","17":"tag-geopolitics","18":"tag-iran","19":"tag-israel","20":"tag-oil-markets","21":"tag-rate-cuts","22":"tag-robotaxis","23":"tag-tesla","24":"tag-treasury-yields","25":"tag-vix","26":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Fed and Robotaxis Outweighing Geopolitics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ten days ago, after Israeli warplanes first attacked Iranian installations, we wrote a piece about how a major geopolitical event was once again greeted...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205923\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Fed and Robotaxis Outweighing Geopolitics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ten days ago, after Israeli warplanes first attacked Iranian installations, we wrote a piece about how a major geopolitical event was once again greeted with a relative yawn from the market. 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Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/06\/usa-taxi-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205923","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=205923"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205923\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/205924"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=205923"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=205923"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=205923"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=205923"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}