{"id":205746,"date":"2025-06-13T13:09:51","date_gmt":"2025-06-13T17:09:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/middle-east-conflict-may-deter-the-fed-from-cutting-at-all-this-year\/"},"modified":"2025-07-08T20:07:20","modified_gmt":"2025-07-08T20:07:20","slug":"middle-east-conflict-may-deter-the-fed-from-cutting-at-all-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-economic-landscape\/middle-east-conflict-may-deter-the-fed-from-cutting-at-all-this-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Middle East Conflict May Deter the Fed From Cutting at All This Year: June 13, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
A heightening of Middle Eastern tensions has investors running for cover this morning following Israeli attacks against Iran. The conflict is propelling inflation expectations via the cost of crude oil, which advanced as much as 12% in a single session, on worries that supplies could be disrupted in the region. The sharp gain is especially problematic for a marketplace that was cheerful due to back-to-back lighter-than-projected price pressure reports this week that bolstered rate cut hopes and widened the path for additional upside in stocks. Furthermore, a pivotal focus of the Trump administration is subdued gasoline costs through expanded production levels as a way to hedge the potential for tariff-sparked charge forces. The geopolitical violence has traders ignoring today\u2019s much better-than-anticipated consumer sentiment print, as they unload equities in all sectors ex energy, Treasuries across the curve, bitcoins and the copper and silver commodities. But folks are increasing their exposures to volatility protection instruments, the greenback, forecast contracts and the energy, lumber and gold commodities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
US Consumer Sentiment Rebounds<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
A comeback in the stock market and softer-than-feared Trump tariffs drove a significant increase in the University of Michigan\u2019s consumer sentiment print this morning. It was the first gain in six months and the 60.5 level reported in June was much better than the 53.5 median estimate and the 52.2 from May. The sub-indices for current conditions and future projections rose from 58.9 and 47.9 to 63.7 and 58.4, well above the estimated 59.4 and 49. The short- and long-run inflation expectations segments declined to 4.1% and 5.1% over 1- and 5-years, below the prior month\u2019s 4.2% and 6.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Can\u2019t Afford Spiking Energy Prices<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
A potential spike in energy prices would be a significant problem for the economy and markets. A prolonged conflict during which oil supplies are reduced and costs surge above $85 per barrel could threaten a return to a 3-handle on the Consumer Price Index; it almost reached $78 last night. That kind of increase would certainly deter the Federal Reserve from reducing short-term yields and may push central banks around the world to begin raising rates. Furthermore, heavier stickers for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel would likely pressure corporate margins since shoppers have been balking at loftier charges lately amidst a decelerating labor market and ongoing budgetary stress. What stocks and Treasuries need for resumed upside is a quick de-escalation because without it, risk premiums, volatility and inflation expectations will march higher, hurting equities and fixed-income assets simultaneously while benefiting gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
International Roundup<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Europe\u2019s Industrial Production Slows<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Industrial production in the euro area sank 2.4% month (m\/m) in April, significantly below the -1.7% median forecast and the preceding month\u2019s 2.4% gain. The metric was up only 0.8% year over year (y\/y) with economists expecting a 1.4% jump following the last reporting period\u2019s 3.7% boost. Also in April, the region\u2019s trade surplus shrank from $37.3 billion to $9.9 billion, well below the expectation for $18.2 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Japan\u2019s industrial production retreated 1.1% m\/m in April, slightly better than the prediction of -0.9% but a reversal from the 0.2% increase in March. The Tertiary Industry Activity Index, a measurement of services, descended 10.90 points after increasing 14.90 in March. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Cold Weather Heats Up Canada\u2019s Capacity Utilization<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Canada\u2019s industrial sector utilized 80.1% of its capacity during the first three months of this year compared to 79.7% during the final quarter of 2024, according to Statistics Canada. Economists predicted an increase to 79.8%. Below normal temperatures heated up activity in the electric power generation, transmission and distribution sector with the portion of capacity operating in the first quarter climbing from 83.2% to 86.1%. In a related matter, the mining, quarrying and oil gas extraction sector rate moved north by 0.7 percentage points to 76.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Conversely, manufacturing weakened with activity relative to capacity falling 0.2 percentage points to 77.9%. Within this category, the petroleum and coal product manufacturing segment and the fabricated metal group fell 6.9 and 3.1 percentage points, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Canada Wholesale and Manufacturing Sales Volumes Retreat<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
US tariffs appear to have hit Canada\u2019s wholesale and manufacturing sales in April. Sales on the wholesale level dipped 2.3% m\/m, worse than the forecast for -0.9% and March\u2019s 0.2% result. Meanwhile, manufacturing sales sank 2.8% compared to the estimate of -2 % and March\u2019s -1.4% result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A heightening of Middle Eastern tensions has investors running for cover this morning following Israeli attacks against Iran. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":203756,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[58,146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[2239,2655,3668,3562,830],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":{"0":"post-205746","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-federal-reserve-policy","15":"tag-geopolitical-uncertainty","16":"tag-inflation-risks","17":"tag-middle-east-conflict","18":"tag-oil-prices","19":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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