{"id":205448,"date":"2025-06-05T09:26:34","date_gmt":"2025-06-05T13:26:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/chart-advisor-dollars-rates-risk-and-2002\/"},"modified":"2025-06-10T14:26:08","modified_gmt":"2025-06-10T14:26:08","slug":"chart-advisor-dollars-rates-risk-and-2002","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-dollars-rates-risk-and-2002\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Dollars, Rates, Risk, and 2002"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Brendan McCarty, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Following Up on the Greenback<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ While Liquidity Impacts the USD, 10s watch<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Looking Back to 2002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ But Models Don\u2019t Always Align<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Following Up on the Greenback<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday, I noted that the USD appeared poised to move lower\u2014potentially back toward the bottom of its pre-pandemic range around 96. Part of the basis for that view comes from the chart below, which is a long-term model I use to track dollar trends. As shown, the three lines clustered between 99 and 101 suggest a key pivot or equilibrium zone for the Dollar Index, and the dollar has moved below that range so far this month. Another notable aspect of this chart\u2014and one that suggests the world remains flush with liquidity\u2014is the continued rise in liquidity (i.e., more dollars), which has done little to stem the climb in the USD since the Global Financial Crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In short, as liquidity levels rise, one might expect the USD to decline due to the sheer increase in the supply of dollars. However, demand for USD-denominated assets has been so strong that it has instead driven the dollar higher. Now, with the dollar starting to slide, is the greenback finally responding to the massive liquidity in the U.S. financial system and the growing imbalance between federal revenue and debt? That\u2019s a question without a clear answer\u2014but certainly food for thought this Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While Liquidity Impacts the USD, 10s watch<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2022, the USD peaked, as shown in the previous chart. That same year, the 10-year yield resumed its climb from the 2020 pandemic lows, as the economy stabilized and inflationary pressures intensified. The Fed\u2014having waited too long\u2014began its rate-hiking campaign in the spring. It also started tightening liquidity through various measures, which reduced available demand for assets, leading the S&P to tumble while long-term rates rose. When liquidity bottomed in 2022, the 10-year yield fell as demand for risk assets increased. This rise in asset prices spurred greater retail spending, pushing inflation pressures further higher and reinforcing upward momentum across markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since late 2022 and into 2023\u2014following the start of the rally that carried through the end of 2024\u201410-year yields have remained largely range-bound, with the 13-month moving average essentially flat since early last year. The recent rise in liquidity, which helped fuel the equity market rebound, has likely kept a lid on selling in 10-year notes. But what happens if dollar weakness accelerates and liquidity levels stop rising? That scenario could very well push yields through the top of the range at 4.70%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Looking Back to 2002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While researching for this note, I was struck by the similarities between the USD in 2002 and today. After the tech bubble burst in 2000, the dollar rallied for two years before collapsing over the next eight. That period of capital flight and wealth destruction across the economy contributed to numerous side effects\u2014most notably, the Global Financial Crisis. But before that crisis unfolded, the dollar\u2019s collapse from the 120s to the low 70s was followed by significant outperformance in foreign markets relative to the U.S. and a massive commodity rally, particularly in gold (as shown below). Gold, which bottomed at $256 in 2001, rallied to $1,030 by 2008 (and even further into 2011) before beginning a decline. Does this suggest that the $2,500 level we recently saw in gold\u2014and current levels\u2014are just the beginning of another long-term run?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Honestly, I’m not a gold trader, so I can’t say for certain\u2014but the similarities between the two periods are notable. The CRB Index also bottomed in 2002 and moved higher for the following nine years. If this is indeed the beginning of a downtrend in the greenback, perhaps the 2002\u20132011 playbook will come back into focus. Also, if the CRB happens to climb like it did during that period, the inflation story will very much move to the forefront once again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

But Models Don\u2019t Always Align<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While I can speculate on 2002, breakouts in rates, or breakdowns in the USD, let\u2019s take a step back and examine the current conditions in the equity markets\u2014which may be more revealing at the moment in relation to the USD and the 10-year yield. The chart here shows three variables: the S&P, my proprietary risk index, and a market conditions model I developed years ago. Risk flatlined heading into year-end and began to decline before the equity market crash this spring. Market conditions followed a similar path. Although initial signs were noticed, selling began well before \u201cliberation day\u201d in April. While the S&P has rebounded sharply over the past month, both risk and market conditions have tightened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This serves as a \u201cflag on the field,\u201d so to speak, for the equity trend. As long as this persists, the S&P becomes increasingly vulnerable to a pullback\u2014and given the elevated level of chatter in global markets today, developments like this could quickly upend sentiment. With that in mind, perhaps the move in gold reflects a hedge against such risks, while the buying in 10-year Treasuries\u2014despite flat liquidity\u2014represents a flight to safety. Similarly, risk assets may be positioning for another leg down in the USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s a lot of noise in the markets right now. More on that in the days ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 05th June 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Brendan McCarty, CMT 1\/ Following Up on the Greenback 2\/ While Liquidity Impacts the USD, 10s watch 3\/ Looking Back to 2002 4\/ But Models Don\u2019t Always Align Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1558,"featured_media":205468,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[144,335,1150,14,15,146,147,8,12,153,22,148,7],"tags":[2668,1155,311,222,1330,398,956],"contributors-categories":[503],"class_list":["post-205448","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-commodities","category-etfs","category-etps","category-fixed-income","category-forex","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-technical-analysis","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-crb-index","tag-dxy","tag-fed","tag-gold","tag-sp-500","tag-spx","tag-usd","contributors-categories-investopedia"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart 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