{"id":205043,"date":"2025-05-22T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-22T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/its-all-about-bonds-for-now\/"},"modified":"2025-05-23T09:55:03","modified_gmt":"2025-05-23T09:55:03","slug":"its-all-about-bonds-for-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/its-all-about-bonds-for-now\/","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s All About Bonds For Now"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>This morning, the markets decided that the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/7287722\/trump-big-beautiful-bill-house-rules-committee-floor-vote-republicans\/\">big beautiful bill<\/a>\u201d is kind of homely.&nbsp; Bond markets around the world have been a bit shaky, particularly for long-duration paper, and the last thing they wanted was a piece of legislation that risks creating larger budget deficits in the world\u2019s largest economy.&nbsp;&nbsp; As I write this around noon EDT, however, bond traders have decided to buy the dip in their market, allowing stocks to edge higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pre-market futures were a bit directionless early this morning but fell immediately after the news that the budget legislation had passed the House of Representatives.\u00a0 The drawdown, though swift, abated <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/money\/markets\/feds-waller-sees-path-to-rate-cuts-later-this-year-fox-business-reports\/ar-AA1FhxWz?ocid=BingNewsVerp\">after some comments<\/a> from Federal Reserve Governor Waller that opened the door to potential rate cuts in the second half of the year.\u00a0 I\u2019m not sure that the door wasn\u2019t already open for cuts later in the year \u2013 even the conservative comments from various Fed leadership that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/talking-fed-heads-tap-the-brakes\/\">we discussed earlier this week<\/a> acknowledged the possibility, if not the likelihood of one or two cuts \u2013 but Waller\u2019s commentary was what traders wanted to hear at that moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All that said, we learned the hard way yesterday that the bond market has enough sway over equity pricing to disrupt even the most resolute traders.&nbsp; A sloppy 20-year auction led to a rapid -1.6% selloff in the S&amp;P 500 yesterday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Quite frankly, I didn\u2019t have yesterday\u2019s 20-year auction on my <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/sell-in-may-or-dull-tape\/\">meager list of potential catalysts<\/a> for the week.\u00a0 It\u2019s not an auction that\u2019s on most people\u2019s radar.\u00a0 It wasn\u2019t on mine.\u00a0 My concern for not shorting a dull tape proved to be quite misplaced just an hour after finishing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/sell-in-may-or-dull-tape\/\">yesterday\u2019s piece<\/a>.\u00a0 In hindsight, the complacency that was pervading the market was in fact the reason for the unexpected shock. Complacent markets are often more easily stunned than wary ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After the initial dip in the bond market this morning, we see bond prices clawing back all of this morning\u2019s and some of yesterday\u2019s losses.\u00a0 This is reminiscent of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/not-so-downbeat-after-a-downgrade\/\">what we saw on Monday<\/a>, when bonds initially sold off, then recovered.\u00a0 Stocks followed bonds, with equity traders seemingly deciding that if bond traders weren\u2019t perturbed by a debt downgrade, why should they?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today\u2019s gyrations aside, global bond markets should be giving pause to equity investors.&nbsp; We\u2019ve seen long rates creep higher in the US, Germany, Japan and elsewhere.&nbsp;&nbsp; A concerted lack of fiscal discipline, along with the potential for global price pressures, have made bond investors more cautious.&nbsp; This caution has not yet spread into global equities in a meaningful way, but it certainly would if the rate increases persist.&nbsp; Remember, a stock\u2019s current price is supposed to reflect the present value of its future earnings and\/or cash flows.&nbsp; The higher the interest rate, the lower the present value of those flows.&nbsp; And if we think that highflying tech stocks would be immune from such concerns, stocks with higher P\/E multiples can in fact be more susceptible to higher rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All this bears close scrutiny.&nbsp; But for now, US traders once again seem more concerned about their plans for the long weekend and the unofficial start of summer than yields on global long-duration bonds.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This morning, the markets decided that the \u201cbig beautiful bill\u201d is kind of homely.  Bond markets around the world have been a bit shaky, particularly for long-duration paper, and the last thing they wanted was a piece of legislation that risks creating larger budget deficits in the world\u2019s largest economy.   As I write this around noon EDT, however, bond traders have decided to buy the dip in their market, allowing stocks to edge higher.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":205044,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,145,146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-205043","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fixed-income","8":"category-ibkr-market-insights","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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