{"id":204838,"date":"2025-05-19T09:37:58","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T13:37:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/chart-advisor-the-tariff-crash-acwx-and-a-vwap\/"},"modified":"2025-05-20T09:14:13","modified_gmt":"2025-05-20T09:14:13","slug":"chart-advisor-the-tariff-crash-acwx-and-a-vwap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-the-tariff-crash-acwx-and-a-vwap\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: The Tariff Crash, ACWX, and A-VWAP"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>By&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/links.investopedia.com\/u\/click?_t=36ba8fa8372241d58b3bfc06997a4332&amp;_m=0c5a7a12b84a4c1daf7c673dfc460271&amp;_e=TS_rcz_3N_pIBhynYbBMD7Sc0WNJVobzcespY0t-jxNp33zZObSOiRGPc8hc3Kqv7Fh0SLirhM0ol9vODar-hB_Z_sAr7098GzHYhThZ3mnDn2ctCqvoGiotAZwrIUv_1UXNT7tUaHtRIwhZWXaPWHHufhdJzgAiJlxURde-TnEz4WiRLeMNQrqr6B79PXuA9dMsbDVKO0Wi-N3HnFogbhTnUD_NFBRlMK7bOh-oNfkVZEYlmKe0kVOEUcn4wVAN3zyN3Oz_eMeaVBo7ZLFLK-ucWlsewKRSCyh04uhplfnHnTyXTEpl2Sd2TJG7xA2XxDcncVP82ypFs25Cro47Cvq60xODJIjGu4BRVAND6DIYi48c5ksYadWwRzsW78vZh5TClMOeyUwNw4bnr2adv971qFQk71sLc49c8_hfoBd69WT_W5qVJqBokdY8OswC9M3l4m4h1tkDtPFy28kk8g%3D%3D\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Adam Koos, CFP, CMT, CEPA<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1\/ The Tariff Crash<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2\/ All-Country World Index Ex-U.S. (ACWX) vs. the S&amp;P500<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3\/&nbsp;<strong>Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (A-VWAP)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. &nbsp;The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1\">1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Tariff Crash<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets (and the emotional reaction to markets) never cease to amaze me.&nbsp; I\u2019ve been doing this for almost 24 years now, I\u2019ve been through four major bear markets, 2 catastrophic market crashes, and countless corrections and pullbacks \u2013 but one thing never seems to change\u2026 the emotional and behavioral reaction to the markets by investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sentiment indicators during the bottom of the Tariff Crash were suggesting investors were more fearful than they were during the COVID crash.&nbsp; Let\u2019s say that again, but differently\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the bottom of the Tariff Crash, investors were more fearful than they were during a 100-year pandemic that forced people to stay in their homes, businesses to close for weeks, and many companies never, ever re-opened.&nbsp; Does that make any sense at all?!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alright \u2013 I digress\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My point is, the Tariff Crash was an emotional, news-driven market correction, and crashes like these tend to produce V-bottoms.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In fact, I\u2019ve marked the bottom of the two-day decline in April that ranked as the 5th-worst drop in the stock market since 1950. Since that day (not the closing low of the tariff crash \u2013 but the closing bottom of the 2-day record move), the S&amp;P500 is up around 17.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While it\u2019s entirely possible that we see a re-test of those lows this summer, the likelihood of such a drop is getting smaller and smaller with each passing day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"632\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/SPX-Emotional-News-Driven-Tariff-Crash-1100x632.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-204858 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/SPX-Emotional-News-Driven-Tariff-Crash-1100x632.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/SPX-Emotional-News-Driven-Tariff-Crash-700x402.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/SPX-Emotional-News-Driven-Tariff-Crash-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/SPX-Emotional-News-Driven-Tariff-Crash-768x441.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/SPX-Emotional-News-Driven-Tariff-Crash-1536x882.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/SPX-Emotional-News-Driven-Tariff-Crash.png 1920w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/632;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2\">2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>All-Country World Index Ex-U.S. (ACWX) vs. the S&amp;P500<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is still a lot of talk about international markets outpacing the U.S., and if you have a&nbsp;<em>short-term<\/em>&nbsp;timeframe, you\u2019d be correct.&nbsp; For me, however, I manage portfolios for our clients using an intermediate-term timeframe, and I need more time to pass before a longer-term trend takes hold \u2013 or said another way, I need this out-performance of international stocks to \u201cprove itself.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you take a look at the chart below, I\u2019ve plotted the All-Country World Index Ex-U.S. (ACWX) vs. the S&amp;P500, along with a 150-day moving average in blue.&nbsp; When price (and the moving average) are trending up, international stocks are in favor&#8230; and when it\u2019s trending down, domestic stocks are in favor.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s pretty clear to me that international stocks have been under-performing the U.S. for quite some time.&nbsp; This is the 7th time since the bottom of The Great Recession that the 150-day moving average on the RS chart can be seen significantly trending upward, but each and every time (at least so far), it\u2019s only failed and headed lower again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>(Nerds Note: One could argue that, in spring of 2015, the 150MA sloped upward, but it was so slight and for such a short period of time, I decided to omit the occurrence).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"598\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/ACWX-vs-SPX-1100x598.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-204844 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/ACWX-vs-SPX-1100x598.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/ACWX-vs-SPX-700x381.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/ACWX-vs-SPX-300x163.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/ACWX-vs-SPX-768x418.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/ACWX-vs-SPX-1536x835.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/ACWX-vs-SPX.png 1920w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/598;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3\">3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (A-VWAP)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/ask\/answers\/031115\/what-common-strategy-traders-implement-when-using-volume-weighted-average-price-vwap.asp?hid=6b90736a47d32dc744900798ce540f3858c66c03&amp;did=17758487-20250519&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=051925\">Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price<\/a>&nbsp;(A-VWAP) is the average price, weighted by volume, paid by market participants since a selected point \/ date in the past.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Invented and made famous by my friend and fellow Chartered Market Technician, Brian Shannon, when plotted correctly on a chart, it can provide interesting and actionable potential floors of support and ceilings of resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the levels I was watching during the last few months was the A-VWAP from the December 2021 market highs:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It acted as a ceiling of resistance throughout the 2022 bear market,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A floor of support during the fall 2023 correction, and<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P500 tapped the same level, intra-day, at the bottom of the Tariff Crash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Technical analysis is truly incredible\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"604\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/SPX-A-VWAP-1100x604.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-204839 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/SPX-A-VWAP-1100x604.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/SPX-A-VWAP-700x384.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/SPX-A-VWAP-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/SPX-A-VWAP-768x422.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/SPX-A-VWAP-1536x843.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/05\/SPX-A-VWAP.png 1920w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/604;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p> Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally posted 19th May 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By&nbsp;Adam Koos, CFP, CMT, CEPA 1\/ The Tariff Crash 2\/ All-Country World Index Ex-U.S. (ACWX) vs. the S&amp;P500 3\/&nbsp;Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (A-VWAP) Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. &nbsp;The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":204858,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[151,152,146,147,8,12,156,153,22,148,7],"tags":[3319,3407,398],"contributors-categories":[503],"class_list":{"0":"post-204838","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-south-america","14":"category-stocks","15":"category-technical-analysis","16":"category-text-articles","17":"category-traders-insight","18":"tag-acwx","19":"tag-avwap","20":"tag-spx","21":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is 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