{"id":204679,"date":"2025-05-12T10:58:50","date_gmt":"2025-05-12T14:58:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/chart-advisor-check-in-on-seasonality\/"},"modified":"2025-05-14T15:34:27","modified_gmt":"2025-05-14T15:34:27","slug":"chart-advisor-check-in-on-seasonality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-check-in-on-seasonality\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Check in on Seasonality"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Ryan Redfern, CMT, ChFC<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Check in on Seasonality<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ RRG \u2013 Watching the “Ducks\u201d <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ NAAIM Sentiment vs. Me<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s great to be back writing the Chart Advisor again all this week!  A lot has changed since my week in October, and it will be fun to continue on this journey.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Check in on Seasonality<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of my favorite ways to start the week is to check in on Seasonality.  The chart below illustrates the S&P 500’s performance over the past 25 years, specifically during the first year of the presidential cycle, for the seven most recent US presidents.  While that\u2019s not a huge sample size, a wide range of scenarios and economic backdrops have tended to act somewhat similarly.  And so far, 2025 is following this playbook remarkably well.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seasonality looks at the average movement of an index, stock, etc., on a given day over the last X number of periods.  For this example, I\u2019m looking at the last 7 years of the S&P 500 Index, but only during the first year of a US presidential term. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I find that when seasonality and trend agree, good things can happen.  It\u2019s worth a look now and then. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

RRG \u2013 Watching the “Ducks\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next up is a look at how the sectors of the S&P 500 are acting relative to T-Bills using RRG (Relative Rotation Graphs) created by Julius de Kempenaer.\u00a0 I like to refer to this as watching the \u201cducks go around the pond,\u201d as the sectors will tend to rotate in a clockwise circle around the graph.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0
\u00a0
As of Friday, most sectors of the broad index have moved well into the Green (Leading) box.\u00a0 And that\u2019s great!\u00a0 A few weeks ago, they were all clustered in the Red (Lagging) box, which is where market rallies tend to start.\u00a0 But now, the sectors are looking tired: the arrows are starting to point downward towards the Yellow (Weakening) box.\u00a0
\u00a0
But for now, we still have to watch and wait.\u00a0 We\u2019ll revisit this a couple of times this week to watch it play out.\u00a0
\u00a0
XLP (Consumer Staples) is already heading towards the exit, and XLV (Healthcare) appears as if it will skip the Green box and go straight back into Red.\u00a0 And way up in the top right \u2013 XLK (Technology) is turning over faster than many other sectors.\u00a0 That tends to lead the way in both rallies and pullbacks.\u00a0 So keep an eye on that one.\u00a0
\u00a0
I post these on Twitter each Friday so you can watch the \u201cducks\u201d swim their laps.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0
https:\/\/x.com\/RyanRedfernCMT\/status\/1921331884052943146<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

NAAIM Sentiment vs. Me<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve been a long-time contributor to the NAAIM Exposure Index and find it helpful to compare my view of the market to that of other financial professionals.  It indicates to me how much relative conviction I have vs. other active managers in showing how much equity exposure is allocated to the market at a given time.  It can also be helpful as a contrarian indicator in some instances.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Exposure Index had a big rebound, back up above 80 \u2013 a typical reading for an up-trending market.  Recently, this index has been lagging behind in catching up to the market rebound.  But hey, don\u2019t look at me; I\u2019ve been reporting numbers just over 100 during the past couple of weeks, far exceeding the consensus of this community. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I also always appreciate Rob Hanna\u2019s work (Quantifiable Edges), which shows that a NAAIM Index pullback into the 40 area can correspond to a short-term rebound rally over the following week or two.  But again, it is not a signal, but a condition.  Follow your setups and trade accordingly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To sum up the situation going into this week: Seasonality suggests caution and the potential for a brief speed bump ahead. Most S&P 500 sectors seem to agree that this event could happen sometime this week.  On the other hand, general sentiment does seem to be improving, and it\u2019s good to see other managers finally catch up on this trend. I\u2019m optimistic but cautious going into this week, as ultimately, the market still does whatever it wants. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stay safe out there! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 12th May 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Ryan Redfern, CMT, ChFC 1\/ Check in on Seasonality 2\/ RRG \u2013 Watching the “Ducks\u201d  3\/ NAAIM Sentiment vs. Me Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":204689,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[335,14,146,147,8,12,153,22,148,7],"tags":[1250,1330,1333,3384,2330,957,958,959,961,962,964,965,966,967],"contributors-categories":[503],"class_list":{"0":"post-204679","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-fixed-income","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-technical-analysis","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-rrg","18":"tag-sp-500","19":"tag-seasonality","20":"tag-t-bills","21":"tag-technology-select-sector-spdr-fund-xlk","22":"tag-xlb","23":"tag-xlc","24":"tag-xle","25":"tag-xli","26":"tag-xlk","27":"tag-xlre","28":"tag-xlu","29":"tag-xlv","30":"tag-xly","31":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart 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