{"id":204601,"date":"2025-05-08T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-08T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/forget-rate-cuts-this-year-bank-of-america-warns-after-powells-hawkish-tone\/"},"modified":"2025-05-09T09:04:46","modified_gmt":"2025-05-09T09:04:46","slug":"forget-rate-cuts-this-year-bank-of-america-warns-after-powells-hawkish-tone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/forget-rate-cuts-this-year-bank-of-america-warns-after-powells-hawkish-tone\/","title":{"rendered":"Forget Rate Cuts This Year, Bank Of America Warns After Powell&#8217;s Hawkish Tone"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-zinger-key-points\">Zinger Key Points<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bank of America sees no rate cuts in 2025 as inflation and unemployment risks rise.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Powell\u2019s hawkish tone lifts the bar for rate cuts, with June odds dropping to just 16%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bank of America is doubling down on its call that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in 2025, underscoring the central bank&#8217;s growing discomfort with a dual threat of rising inflation and unemployment revealed at&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/topic\/federal-reserve\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">this week&#8217;s policy meeting.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a note shared Thursday, BofA economist&nbsp;<strong>Aditya Bhave<\/strong>&nbsp;said the key takeaway from the May Federal Open Market Committee meeting was &#8220;an upgrade to the Fed\u2019s assessment of economic uncertainty.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bhave referred to two new lines in the Fed&#8217;s statement: first, that uncertainty &#8220;has increased further,&#8221; and second, &#8220;risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Hawkish Tilt As Fed Acknowledges Stagflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the Fed kept rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, Chair Jerome Powell&#8217;s press conference took a cautious, hawkish tone compared to March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Powell repeatedly emphasized the central bank&#8217;s comfort with staying on hold and made clear that the Fed would not act preemptively\u2014unlike in 2019 when it delivered three rate cuts as inflation was running well below target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That&#8217;s not the case today. Core inflation has exceeded the Fed&#8217;s 2% target for four straight years, giving policymakers far less room to maneuver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bhave said Powell&#8217;s message was clear: &#8220;Uncertainty is high, and the Fed is comfortable staying on hold until there is greater clarity.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Higher Bar For Cuts, Markets Start To Adjust<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to Bhave, this approach means the hurdle for a June cut is now significantly higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Market expectations have already begun to reflect that shift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a June rate cut tumbled to 16% on Thursday \u2013 down from 28% before Powell&#8217;s remarks. The chances of a July move are 65%, down from 92% a week ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">BofA&#8217;s base case assumes a steady labor market paired with renewed inflationary pressures\u2014conditions that effectively rule out any Fed rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;If our base case of a steady labor market and rising inflation is correct, we don\u2019t see a path to cuts in 2025,&#8221; Bhave said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Implications For Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">BofA rate strategist&nbsp;<strong>Mark Cabana<\/strong>&nbsp;said front-end Treasury yields could move higher as investors increasingly price out near-term rate cuts. He also recommends staying underweight in longer-dated Treasuries, where issuance\u2014particularly in the 30-year tenor\u2014continues to exceed demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">BofA maintains a broadly bearish stance on the U.S. dollar despite adopting a more hawkish-than-consensus view on the rate outlook. Cabana said the dollar remains &#8220;notably dislocated from short-term rate differentials,&#8221; and that this misalignment is unlikely to correct through subtle shifts in Fed language alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;We remain broadly dollar-bearish, and negative sentiment more broadly has increased over the past month, with many re-thinking broader allocations to U.S. assets and\/or FX hedges,&#8221; the investment bank said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The U.S. dollar index has fallen 8% year-to-date, on track for its worst year since 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted May 8, 2025 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/economics\/macro-economic-events\/25\/05\/45285797\/forget-rate-cuts-this-year-bank-of-america-warns-after-powells-hawkish-tone\">Forget Rate Cuts This Year, Bank Of America Warns After Powell&#8217;s Hawkish Tone<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bank of America is doubling down on its call that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in 2025, underscoring the central bank&#8217;s growing discomfort with a dual threat of rising inflation and unemployment revealed at this week&#8217;s policy meeting.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1128,"featured_media":11479,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[407],"class_list":["post-204601","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-benzinga"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forget Rate Cuts This Year, Bank Of America Warns After Powell&#8217;s Hawkish Tone<\/title>\n<meta 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