{"id":203837,"date":"2025-04-10T16:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-10T16:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/volatility-begets-volatility\/"},"modified":"2025-04-11T15:48:58","modified_gmt":"2025-04-11T15:48:58","slug":"volatility-begets-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/volatility-begets-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"Volatility Begets Volatility"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>If you told me last month that people would be taking a -4% drop and a 40 VIX in relative stride, I would have thought you were delusional.&nbsp; Yet this is what happens when volatility that once seemed eye-watering becomes normalized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today\u2019s activity (at least so far) is not quite as crazy as yesterday\u2019s, or for that matter, most of the last few sessions.&nbsp; That is why people are not overtly freaking out.&nbsp; The time for that has passed.&nbsp; That said, because it can take a while for liquidity to return to normal after a period of outsized moves, it is important to remember that volatility begets volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are many takeaways from this week\u2019s drama.&nbsp; Here are a few:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>If yesterday\u2019s announcement wasn\u2019t indeed the \u201cTrump Put\u201d, it seemed an awful lot like one.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>We need to pay attention to Truth Social.\u00a0 I\u2019d imagine that news-reading algorithms are being programmed to do that right now, if they weren\u2019t already.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bond market really does rule.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>FOMO continues to reign supreme.\u00a0 No one wants to miss THE rally.\u00a0 That\u2019s why bear market rallies are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/bear-market-rallies-are-short-sharp-and-ferocious\/?query=bear%20market%20rallies&amp;query_id=FXkEaUQaTAahG64whQ-xNg&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=FXkEaUQaTAahG64whQ-xNg\">short, sharp, and ferocious<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Remember that volatility works in both directions.\u00a0 When we go down, it\u2019s scary and abnormal, but when we go up it\u2019s \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/socially-acceptable-volatility\/?query=socially%20acceptable%20volatility&amp;query_id=axpSiLblSzuFhGPqAxK9WA&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=axpSiLblSzuFhGPqAxK9WA\">socially acceptable volatility<\/a>.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Regarding the so-called \u201cTrump Put\u201d: we have to wonder if its effects have a lasting effect.&nbsp; The President\u2019s comments about a tariff pause for most of the world certainly reversed the market\u2019s mood yesterday, and did so quite abruptly.&nbsp; But as I type this, most of those gains are in the process of being erased.&nbsp; If that was the Trump Put being exercised, it appears that the benefits are fleeting.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/was-this-the-trump-put\/\">On March 24<sup>th<\/sup><\/a>, we wondered whether some conciliatory comments about tariffs in the prior trading session represented that \u201cput\u201d in action.&nbsp; We offered two pieces of evidence that it might have been interpreted as such but said that there was no proof to that effect.&nbsp; With hindsight, it seems as though it was indeed a bona fide effort to ease the market\u2019s mindset, but bear in mind that the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was about 10% higher then than now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for the bond market: it was clear from the President\u2019s and Treasury Secretary\u2019s comments that concerns about the bond market were an important impetus for yesterday\u2019s policy adjustment.&nbsp; A stock market decline is never pleasant, but stocks can fall without causing systemic damage.&nbsp; That is why we once again offered the reminder that the \u201cFed Put\u201d is about financial soundness and liquidity, NOT the stock market.&nbsp; If the bond market got bad enough that it threatened banks and disrupted the market for Treasury securities, that could have forced the Fed to react.&nbsp; A selloff in stocks that threatens neither the broader financial system nor economic output will not cause that piece of the cavalry to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-cavalry-is-not-riding-to-the-rescue\/\">ride to the rescue<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;And as for \u201csocially acceptable volatility\u201d, keep this in mind: if markets had instead fallen by the amount of yesterday\u2019s rally they would have triggered <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nyse.com\/publicdocs\/nyse\/NYSE_MWCB_FAQ.pdf\">market-wide circuit breakers<\/a>. &nbsp;The first one is triggered by a -7% fall in SPX.&nbsp; Yesterday we rose +9.5%.&nbsp; The financial system understandably prefers when markets rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As I type this, we now have SPX about -6% lower and VIX at 50.&nbsp; The change that we saw in the past couple of hours would alone have caused no shortage of handwringing.&nbsp; But for now, we recognize that volatility begets volatility.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you told me last month that people would be taking a -4% drop and a 40 VIX in relative stride, I would have thought you were delusional.\u00a0 Yet this is what happens when volatility that once seemed eye-watering becomes normalized.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":194226,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[3101,747,365,3102,2973],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-203837","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-bond-market","15":"tag-fomo","16":"tag-market-volatility","17":"tag-socially-acceptable-volatility","18":"tag-trump-put","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO 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Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/volatility-ahead-newspaper-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203837","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=203837"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203837\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/194226"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=203837"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=203837"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=203837"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=203837"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}