{"id":203465,"date":"2025-03-31T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-31T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/weekly-market-recap-march-31-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-04-01T08:58:20","modified_gmt":"2025-04-01T08:58:20","slug":"weekly-market-recap-march-31-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-march-31-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: March 31, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>PCE fell to 0.3% m\/m (2.5% y\/y) in February<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer confidence fell to 92.9 in March<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PMI composite rose to 53.5 in March<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>JOLTS \/ Jobs report<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ISM PMIs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Known for its notoriously strict borrowing laws, Germany&#8217;s new fiscal spending package has the potential to transform both the country and the broader European Union in the coming decade. The package was proposed as a response to the uncertain future of the long-standing implicit security blanket from the U.S., featuring over \u20ac1 trillion in new defense and infrastructure spending. If enacted, it would be the largest fiscal stimulus the country has seen since post-Cold War reunification.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Specifically, the plan includes: (i) reforms to the country\u2019s \u201cdebt brake\u201d with all defense spending above 1% of GDP excluded from the debt limit calculation; (ii) the creation of a \u20ac500 billion fund to invest in Germany\u2019s ailing infrastructure over 10 years; (iii) and an extension of the 0.35% debt brake limit to state budgets. Not only does this package have the potential to kick start Germany\u2019s economy out of a two-year recession, but it also shows a commitment to rearming its military after years of lackluster investment. While structural changes to Germany\u2019s tax code and regulatory body may still be necessary, the benefits are likely to spread throughout the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For investors, this package has substantial implications for European markets, particularly if other countries decide to loosen their fiscal policies. If appropriated wisely, these large increases in government spending can lead to positive long-term growth effects. While bonds could underperform in the face of increased debt issuances and higher borrowing costs, European equities are well positioned to reap the rewards. Already up 16+% this year, with notable outperformance in defense and industrial stocks, the rise in European equities could be a longer-term trend in this new environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1010\" height=\"405\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-03-31-102206.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-203466 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1010px; aspect-ratio: 1010\/405;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart of the Week: Source: Congressional Budget Office, Goldman<br>Sachs Global Investment Research, HM Treasury, Stockholm<br>International Peace Research Institute, J.P. Morgan Asset<br>Management.<br>Thought of the week: Source: Reuters, Wall Street Journal, J.P.<br>Morgan Asset Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted March 17, 2025 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2024 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., March 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of March 31, 2025 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights Germany&#8217;s rising defense spending, with a fiscal package set to transform its economy and the EU.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":203466,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[429],"class_list":{"0":"post-203465","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: March 31, 2025 | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta 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