{"id":202866,"date":"2025-03-10T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-10T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/beware-the-ides-of-march\/"},"modified":"2025-03-13T18:03:21","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T18:03:21","slug":"beware-the-ides-of-march","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/beware-the-ides-of-march\/","title":{"rendered":"Beware the Ides of March"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I am hardly a Shakespeare afficionado, but many with just a passing knowledge of the Bard\u2019s work are familiar with the soothsayer\u2019s admonition in \u201cJulius Caesar<\/a>\u201d: \u201cBeware the Ides of March.\u201d  It forebodes Caesar\u2019s actual assassination on March 15th<\/sup>, 44 BCE.  Recent market history \u2013 the peak of the internet bubble and the Covid crash — and a looming government shutdown deadline continue to make that apocryphal phrase relevant. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of this writing, there is a distinct possibility that the US government could run out of funding by the end of the day on Friday<\/a>, March 14th<\/sup>, meaning that the government could shut down on the 15th<\/sup> \u2013 the Ides of March.  As of now, there is still a general belief that a shutdown could be averted \u2013 they usually are \u2013 but the fractious political environment could make this a more challenging negotiation than usual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Helpfully, you can track the odds \u2013 and assert your own estimates \u2013 using IBKR\u2019s Forecast Trader<\/a>.  The current probability for a shutdown is 44%.  It dipped overnight, when traders apparently factored in the negotiations that appear to have House Republicans united<\/a> around a plan to advance a funding bill, but that still needs to pass through a procedural vote today and a floor vote tomorrow.  Even if those hurdles are met, the bill would need to find a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate before it reaches the President\u2019s desk.  It is understandable why a fair degree of uncertainty is attached to its prospects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Will<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: <\/em>Interactive Brokers ForecastEx<\/em><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The political peregrinations are best left to pundits of a different stripe, but the market implications of a shutdown are not great.  Equity markets are already reeling from concerns that budgetary cutbacks and tariff concerns have proven to be bigger early priorities for the new administration than the easier regulatory climate and tax cuts that were initially priced in.  Markets don\u2019t enjoy uncertainty, and both aforementioned priorities have none nothing to quell concerned investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In markets, uncertainty is reflected as volatility, and the most popular measure of that is the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX).  VIX continues to trade at relatively elevated levels, and while it is tempting to assert that VIX is now reflecting investors\u2019 fear, a more rational explanation is rooted in both perceptions about potential moves over the coming month and high levels of correlations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Remember our opinion that \u201cVIX is not a fear gauge<\/a>, it just plays one on TV.\u201d  Heck, I even said that on TV on Thursday<\/a>.  Remember, VIX is constructed to measure the market\u2019s best estimate of S&P 500 (SPX) volatility over the coming 30 days<\/a>, not sentiment.  Of course, there is a well-known relationship between nervous markets and higher VIX, but once markets become volatile traders often expect that volatility to persist.  In a week that includes CPI and PPI reports as well as shutdown drama and stagflationary concerns, is it wrong for the traders to price in roughly 1.5% daily moves over the coming days?[i]<\/a>  Also, when market correlations, as measured by the Cboe\u2019s COR1M index, are at currently elevated levels, we also see elevated VIX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1-Year Chart, VIX (red\/green daily candles), COR1M (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"1-Year<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, a quick word about eerie historical precedents.  During the late \u201890\u2019s-2000 internet bubble, SPX\u2019s peak closing high was on March 14th<\/sup>, 2000. It was a Friday, so that counts as the Ides of March from a market viewpoint.  To be fair, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) was the main recipient of the frenzy, and its closing high was not reached for another 13 days.  But I\u2019ll assert that March 27th<\/sup> is not too far outside the \u201cIdes of March\u201d realm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1998-2001, SPX (white, right scale), NDX (blue, left scale)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"1998-2001,<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a more positive note, the massive Covid selloff culminated during late March 2020.  The closing low for NDX was on Friday, March 20, 2020, and the closing low for SPX followed on Monday the 23rd<\/sup>.  Unfortunately, while we were closed on the 15th<\/sup> of that year, the 16th<\/sup> was truly ugly, with SPX and NDX each diving about -13% that day.  Beware the Ides of March indeed!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

July 2019-June 2020, SPX (white, right scale), NDX (blue, left scale)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"July<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

[1] Remember the \u201cRule of 16\u201d<\/a>.  Even though VIX is expressed in terms of annualized volatility, it is more useful for short-term traders to think in daily volatility terms.  In general, that conversion is done by dividing the annualized number by the square root of business days in a year, which is conveniently close to 16.  Although the VIX computation makes it an imperfect comparison, it is fair to say that a 24 VIX is roughly equivalent to 1.5% daily volatility.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I am hardly a Shakespeare afficionado, but many with just a passing knowledge of the Bard\u2019s work are familiar with the soothsayer\u2019s admonition in \u201cJulius Caesar\u201d: \u201cBeware the Ides of March.\u201d\u00a0 It forebodes Caesar\u2019s actual assassination on March 15th, 44 BCE.\u00a0 Recent market history \u2013 the peak of the internet bubble and the Covid crash — and a looming government shutdown deadline continue to make that apocryphal phrase relevant.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":202867,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[145,146,147,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[696,2762,365,2763,2685],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":["post-202866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-government-shutdown","tag-ides-of-march","tag-market-volatility","tag-spx-trends","tag-vix-index","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBeware the Ides of March | Traders' Insight<\/title>\n<meta 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Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/roman-people-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/202866","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=202866"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/202866\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/202867"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=202866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=202866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=202866"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=202866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}