{"id":202560,"date":"2025-02-28T13:00:21","date_gmt":"2025-02-28T18:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/sixty-percent-of-the-time-it-works-every-time\/"},"modified":"2025-03-17T20:52:00","modified_gmt":"2025-03-17T20:52:00","slug":"sixty-percent-of-the-time-it-works-every-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/sixty-percent-of-the-time-it-works-every-time\/","title":{"rendered":"Sixty Percent of the Time, It Works Every Time"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The past few weeks have brought a dramatic change in investor sentiment.&nbsp; After months, if not years, when risk assumption far outweighed risk aversion, that equilibrium has shifted dramatically in recent weeks, threatening the increasingly popular strategies of buying dips and chasing momentum.&nbsp; While they remain time-tested trading techniques, traders have gotten an unwelcome reminder that no strategy is foolproof.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is not an indictment of dip-buying, per se.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/buy-the-dip-gets-a-stiff-test\/\">As we wrote on Monday<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Let\u2019s be clear \u2013 there is absolutely nothing wrong with buying on dips.&nbsp; It certainly fits with the concept of \u201cbuy low, sell high\u201d.&nbsp; I imagine that there were speculators in Mesopotamia or ancient Greece who bought grain or other commodities when prices fell; why shouldn\u2019t modern traders do the same?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That piece was entitled \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/buy-the-dip-gets-a-stiff-test\/\"><em>Buy-the-Dip\u201d Gets a Stiff Test<\/em><\/a>.&nbsp; The S&amp;P 500 dropped by -1.71% on Friday, and by Monday, pre-market futures were rising by 0.5%.&nbsp; We had seen pre-market rallies fail in recent sessions \u2013 including a very modest one just ahead of last Friday\u2019s big drop \u2013 so we viewed Monday\u2019s early bounce as traders reflexively buying dips than a considered decision that Friday\u2019s move was unwarranted.&nbsp; The early bounce was proven to be reflexive and hopeful, rather than considered.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It would be one thing if we saw that type of reflexive bounce sporadically.&nbsp; But instead, it occurred with regularity and unsuccessfully.&nbsp; Bearing in mind that during the past five sessions have seen pre-market bounces even as SPX ultimately fell during four of them (-1.71%, -0.50%, -0.47%, +0.01%, -1.59%), traders who chased those fleeting bounces should have tried to take note that the follow-throughs were not arriving as hoped.&nbsp; Perhaps Brian Fantana, Paul Rudd\u2019s character in the film <em>Anchorman,<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/jM8zIvsNaio?t=50\">said it best<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>They&#8217;ve done studies, you know. Sixty percent of the time, it works every time.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ron Burgundy knew that it didn\u2019t make sense, and so should everyone else.&nbsp; It is a fallacy to believe that a particular market tactic works flawlessly, even if it does have a great track record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another strategy with a great track record that has failed recently is trend following.&nbsp; There have been numerous examples of high-profile stocks that had solidly persistent trends that reversed painfully.&nbsp; These include Meta Platforms (META), which gave back about 2\/3 of its 20-day winning streak; Palantir (PLTR), which has regressed fully to pre-earnings levels after a 50% run-up; Hims &amp; Hers (HIMS), which had a stellar but brief surge; and of course Tesla (TSLA), which more than doubled after the election and has since given back nearly all those gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These examples (charts below) are not meant to imply that trend-following is an undesirable strategy.&nbsp; Quite the opposite.&nbsp; But like dip-buying it is far from foolproof.&nbsp; One needs to recognize that trends can turn suddenly and unpredictably.&nbsp; In either case, traders should always manage their risks assiduously.&nbsp; Stop-loss orders and the like, which are themselves not foolproof, mind you, can go a long way to preserving gains or at least minimize losses.&nbsp; There\u2019s never anything wrong with attempting to minimize one\u2019s risks, no matter how aggressive or time-tested the strategy being utilized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-meta-2-months-daily-candles\"><strong><em>META 2-Months Daily Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"877\" height=\"646\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/Picture1-27.png\" alt=\"META 2-Months Daily Candles\" class=\"wp-image-202564 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 877px; aspect-ratio: 877\/646;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-pltr-2-months-daily-candles\"><strong><em>PLTR 2-Months Daily Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"877\" height=\"645\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/Picture2-20.png\" alt=\"PLTR 2-Months Daily Candles\" class=\"wp-image-202563 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 877px; aspect-ratio: 877\/645;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-hims-2-months-daily-candles\"><strong><em>HIMS 2-Months Daily Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"873\" height=\"641\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/Picture3-11.png\" alt=\"HIMS 2-Months Daily Candles\" class=\"wp-image-202562 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 873px; aspect-ratio: 873\/641;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tsla-4-months-daily-candles\"><strong><em>TSLA 4-Months Daily Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"876\" height=\"641\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/Picture4-6.png\" alt=\"TSLA 4-Months Daily Candles\" class=\"wp-image-202561 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 876px; aspect-ratio: 876\/641;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The past few weeks have brought a dramatic change in investor sentiment.  After months, if not years, when risk assumption far outweighed risk aversion, that equilibrium has shifted dramatically in recent weeks, threatening the increasingly popular strategies of buying dips and chasing momentum.  While they remain time-tested trading techniques, traders have gotten an unwelcome reminder that no strategy is foolproof.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":194469,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[147,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[2842,2843,2844,943,2845],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-202560","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-stocks","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-dip-buying-struggles","14":"tag-investor-sentiment-shift","15":"tag-market-strategy-limitations","16":"tag-risk-management","17":"tag-trend-following-risks","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Sixty Percent of the Time, It Works Every Time<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The past few weeks have brought a dramatic change in investor sentiment. 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While they remain time-tested trading techniques, traders have gotten an unwelcome reminder that no strategy is foolproof.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/sixty-percent-of-the-time-it-works-every-time\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus EU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-02-28T18:00:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-03-17T20:52:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/market-rise-fall-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Article\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/stocks\\\/sixty-percent-of-the-time-it-works-every-time\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/stocks\\\/sixty-percent-of-the-time-it-works-every-time\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Steve Sosnick\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Sixty Percent of the Time, It Works Every Time\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2025-02-28T18:00:21+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2025-03-17T20:52:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/stocks\\\/sixty-percent-of-the-time-it-works-every-time\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 582,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/stocks\\\/sixty-percent-of-the-time-it-works-every-time\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/3\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/market-rise-fall-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"dip-buying struggles\",\n\t                \"investor sentiment shift\",\n\t                \"market strategy limitations\",\n\t                \"risk management\",\n\t                \"trend-following risks\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"North America\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Securities\",\n\t                \"Stocks\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/stocks\\\/sixty-percent-of-the-time-it-works-every-time\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/stocks\\\/sixty-percent-of-the-time-it-works-every-time\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/stocks\\\/sixty-percent-of-the-time-it-works-every-time\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Sixty Percent of the Time, It Works Every Time - 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While they remain time-tested trading techniques, traders have gotten an unwelcome reminder that no strategy is foolproof.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/sixty-percent-of-the-time-it-works-every-time\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/sixty-percent-of-the-time-it-works-every-time\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/sixty-percent-of-the-time-it-works-every-time\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/market-rise-fall-featured-img.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/market-rise-fall-featured-img.jpg","width":1000,"height":563,"caption":"market rise fall, graphic."},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/sixty-percent-of-the-time-it-works-every-time\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Sixty Percent of the Time, It Works Every Time"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/","name":"IBKR Campus EU","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549","name":"Steve Sosnick","description":"Steve is the Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers. He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/market-rise-fall-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/202560","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=202560"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/202560\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/194469"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=202560"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=202560"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=202560"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=202560"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}