{"id":202548,"date":"2025-02-28T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-28T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/earnings-season-wraps-up-us-ceos-signal-highest-confidence-in-two-years\/"},"modified":"2025-03-03T16:34:59","modified_gmt":"2025-03-03T16:34:59","slug":"earnings-season-wraps-up-us-ceos-signal-highest-confidence-in-two-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/earnings-season-wraps-up-us-ceos-signal-highest-confidence-in-two-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Earnings Season Wraps Up: US CEOs Signal Highest Confidence in Two Years"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Q4 2024 earnings season tapers off from here, with S&amp;P 500\u00ae EPS growth surpassing 17%, the highest in 3 years<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Large cap outlier earnings dates this week include: Diamondback Energy (FANG), Realty Income Corp (O), FirstEnergy (FE) and The Mosaic Company (MOS)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This is the final week of peak season, with 2,530 companies expected to report<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The fourth quarter 2024 earnings season more-or-less wraps up this week with the final trickle of retailers coming in, as well as the highly anticipated report from Nvidia which was out yesterday afternoon. At this point, roughly 90% of S&amp;P 500 companies have reported results for Q4, showing YoY EPS growth of 17% and revenue growth just over 5%.<sup>1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tuesday&#8217;s Q4 results from Home Depot surprised investors with a slight beat on both the top and bottom-line.<sup>2<\/sup>&nbsp;This comes after a Q3 earnings call during which management commented on the slowing of the US consumer who seemed to be deferring large ticket home improvement projects.<sup>3<\/sup>&nbsp;The outlook was more positive on this call, with the company\u2019s CFO, Richard McPhail, anticipating consumers will stop putting off projects as they begin to accept higher interest rates as the norm.<sup>4<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The home improvement retailer\u2019s results come at a time when the US housing market is struggling. Last Wednesday, US Housing Starts for January slid to an annualized 1.366M, a nearly 10% decline MoM.<sup>5<\/sup>&nbsp;Many things likely contributed to the decline, including severe weather around the country that delayed construction, rising material costs due to import tariffs and stubbornly high mortgage rates. Despite this, home prices continued to rise higher according to the latest reading of the S&amp;P Case-Schiller Index which showed an increase of 3.9% in December, the 19th consecutive monthly increase.<sup>6<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent readings on the US consumer have also confirmed there is uncertainty in the air. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for February slid nearly 10% MoM, the second consecutive monthly decline.<sup>7<\/sup>&nbsp;The survey found that 40% of those surveyed were concerned about tariffs and the possibility that they would reignite inflation.<sup>8<\/sup>&nbsp;The February reading on consumer confidence from The Conference Board showed the same, with the index slipping nearly 7% MoM, the largest monthly drop since August 2021.<sup>9<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This most certainly impacts retailers that started reporting last week. WalMart, after beating expectations on the top and bottom-line for Q4, issued a warning about waning growth in 2025.<sup>10<\/sup>&nbsp;TJX Companies, the parent company of off-price retailers such as TJMaxx, Home Goods and Marshall\u2019s also showed robust growth in the final quarter of 2024, but issued weaker-than-expected same store sales guidance for its fiscal 2026.<sup>11<\/sup>&nbsp;Dollar stores, such as Dollar Tree, which doesn\u2019t report until mid-March, has already announced they would likely have to discontinue carrying certain items that are made in China and may also raise prices to combat the impact of tariffs. Roughly 40% of Dollar Tree\u2019s goods are derived from overseas.<sup>12<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To top off the week, AI darling Nvidia reported yesterday afternoon, beating sell side expectations on both the top and bottom-line. Revenue of $39.3B was a quarterly record for the company, as was yearly revenue of $130.5B, a 114% increase over 2023. Despite worries around the emergence of Chinese AI company DeepSeek, NVDA guided for sales of $43 billion in Q1, stronger than the Wall Street estimate of $41.78B.<sup>13<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-us-ceos-the-most-confident-they-ve-been-since-q2-2022\"><strong>US CEOs the Most Confident They\u2019ve Been Since Q2 2022<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite how consumers might be feeling, corporate confidence is rebounding. After rising to its highest level in four years during the last quarter of 2024, the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wallstreethorizon.com\/late-earnings-report-index\">Late Earnings Report Index<\/a>&nbsp;(LERI), our proprietary measure of CEO uncertainty, has fallen back below the historical benchmark, a sign that clarity around future performance is improving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The LERI tracks outlier earnings date changes among publicly traded companies with market capitalizations of $250M and higher. The LERI has a baseline reading of 100, and anything above that indicates that companies are feeling uncertain about their current and short-term prospects. A LERI reading under 100 suggests that companies feel they have a pretty good handle on the near-term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The official post-peak season LERI reading for Q4 (data collected in Q1) stands at 72, well below the baseline reading, suggesting companies are feeling more certain about economic conditions than they were for the last three quarters. As of February 26, there were 156 late outliers and 196 early outliers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These results were similar to last week\u2019s reading from The Conference Board\u2019s Measure of CEO Conference. The measure increased by 9 points in Q1 to 60, the highest level in three years, \u201cindicating that CEOs have shifted from the cautious optimism that prevailed in 2024 to a more confident optimism.\u201d<sup>14<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"757\" height=\"468\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/250226WSHLERI.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-202551 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 757px; aspect-ratio: 757\/468;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Wall Street Horizon &#8211;<strong> Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-on-deck-this-week\"><strong>On Deck this Week<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This week marks the final peak week of earnings season with 2,530 companies (in our global universe of 11k) set to report, and 12 from the S&amp;P 500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/250224-WeeklyEarningsGraphic1920x1400px-1100x802.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-202550 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/802;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Wall Street Horizon<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-outlier-earnings-dates-this-week\"><strong>Outlier Earnings Dates This Week<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Academic research shows that, when a company confirms a quarterly earnings date that is later than when they have historically reported, it\u2019s typically a sign that the company will share negative news on their upcoming call, while moving a release date earlier suggests the opposite.<sup>15<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This week we get results from a number of large companies on major indexes that have pushed their Q4 2024 earnings dates outside of their historical norms. Six companies within the S&amp;P 500 confirmed outlier earnings dates for this week, all of which are later than usual and therefore have negative DateBreaks Factors*. Those names are Diamondback Energy (FANG), Realty Income Corp (O), FirstEnergy (FE), Synopsys (SNPS), The Mosaic Company (MOS) and Teleflex Incorporated (TFX).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*&nbsp;<em>Wall Street Horizon DateBreaks Factor: statistical measurement of how an earnings date (confirmed or revised) compares to the reporting company&#8217;s 5-year trend for the same quarter. Negative means the earnings date is confirmed to be later than historical average while Positive is earlier.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-q4-earnings-wave\"><strong>Q4 Earnings Wave<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Yesterday, February 26, was the most active day of the entire Q4 earnings season with 931 companies reporting, followed closely by today, February 27, during which 869 companies are anticipated to report. Thus far, 82% of companies have confirmed their earnings date (out of our universe of 11,000+ global names), and 55% have reported results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"821\" height=\"497\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/250218_wsh.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-202549 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 821px; aspect-ratio: 821\/497;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Wall Street Horizon &#8211;<strong> Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted February 27, 2025 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wallstreethorizon.com\/blog\/Earnings-Season-Wraps-Up-US-CEOs-Signal-Highest-Confidence-in-Two-Years\">Earnings Season Wraps Up: US CEOs Signal Highest Confidence in Two Years<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1 Earnings Insight, FactSet, John Butters, February 14, 2025,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/advantage.factset.com\/hubfs\/Website\/Resources%20Section\/Research%20Desk\/Earnings%20Insight\/EarningsInsight_021425.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/advantage.factset.com<\/a><br>2 The Home Depot Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2024 Results, February 25, 2025,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ir.homedepot.com\/~\/media\/Files\/H\/HomeDepot-IR\/press-release\/q4-2024-earning-release.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/ir.homedepot.com<\/a><br>3 The Home Depot Announces Third Quarter Fiscal 2024 Results, November 12, 2024,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ir.homedepot.com\/~\/media\/Files\/H\/HomeDepot-IR\/press-release\/q3-2024-earning-release.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/ir.homedepot.com<\/a><br>4 Home Depot Earnings Call, February 25, 2025,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/event.choruscall.com\/mediaframe\/webcast.html?webcastid=TMeAa4xs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/event.choruscall.com<\/a><br>5 MONTHLY NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, JANUARY 2025, United States Census Bureau, February 19, 2025,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrc\/current\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.census.gov<\/a><br>6 S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.9% Annual Gain in December 2024, February 25, 2025,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/spdji\/en\/index-announcements\/article\/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-index-records-39-annual-gain-in-december-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.spglobal.com<\/a><br>7 Final Results for February 2025, Survey of Consumers, University of Michigan, February 21, 2025, https:\/\/www.sca.isr.umich.edu\/&nbsp;<br>8 Consumer sentiment drops as inflation worries escalate, University of Michigan, February 21, 2025,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/news.umich.edu\/consumer-sentiment-drops-as-inflation-worries-escalate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/news.umich.edu<\/a><br>9 US Consumer Confidence Dropped Sharply in February, February 25, 2025,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conference-board.org\/topics\/consumer-confidence\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.conference-board.org<\/a><br>10 Walmart Releases Q4 FY25 Earnings, February 20, 2025,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/corporate.walmart.com\/news\/2025\/02\/20\/walmart-releases-q4-fy25-earnings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/corporate.walmart.com<\/a><br>11 The TJX Companies, Inc. Reports Q4 and FY25 Results, February 26, 2025,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/investor.tjx.com\/news-releases\/news-release-details\/tjx-companies-inc-reports-q4-and-fy25-results-q4-comp-store\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/investor.tjx.com<\/a><br>12 Dollar Tree may stop selling some products because of Trump\u2019s tariffs, CNN, Nathaniel Meyersohn, December 4, 2024,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/12\/04\/business\/dollar-tree-tariffs-business\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/edition.cnn.com<\/a><br>13 NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2025, February 26, 2025,<br><a href=\"https:\/\/nvidianews.nvidia.com\/news\/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-2025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/nvidianews.nvidia.com<\/a><br>14 CEO Confidence Increased Sharply in Q1 2025, February 20, 2025,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conference-board.org\/topics\/CEO-Confidence\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.conference-board.org<\/a><br>15 Time Will Tell: Information in the Timing of Scheduled Earnings News, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Eric C. So, Travis L. Johnson, Dec, 2018,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2480662\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The fourth quarter 2024 earnings season more-or-less wraps up this week with the final trickle of retailers coming in, as well as the highly anticipated report from Nvidia which was out yesterday afternoon. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":586,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[147,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[455],"class_list":{"0":"post-202548","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-north-america","7":"category-region","8":"category-securities","9":"category-stocks","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"contributors-categories-wall-street-horizon"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Earnings Season Wraps Up: US CEOs Signal Highest Confidence in Two Years<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The 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