{"id":201872,"date":"2025-01-31T10:50:09","date_gmt":"2025-01-31T15:50:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/chart-advisor-all-eyes-on-sp-500\/"},"modified":"2025-02-04T14:42:28","modified_gmt":"2025-02-04T14:42:28","slug":"chart-advisor-all-eyes-on-sp-500","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-all-eyes-on-sp-500\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: All Eyes on S&P 500"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Todd Stankiewicz CMT, CFP, ChFC<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ One Wild Week<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Is the Market Rotating?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Let the Prices Lead<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

One Wild Week<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This was my fourth time guest-authoring ChartAdvisor, and it was easily one of the most action-packed weeks I\u2019ve had.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monday opened with a gap down after news that DeepSeek might be changing the game in AI. The concern? If true, valuation models for current AI companies could crumble under new assumptions. The Nasdaq dropped over 3%, and Nvidia tanked 17%. This was a real-time example of just how fragile valuation models can be. At these levels, everything has to go right just to hold the line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then we had the FOMC. As expected, rates stayed put on Wednesday. But as I\u2019ve been (not so quietly) pounding the table about, the Fed is still worried about inflation making a comeback. That should be a warning sign for investors: if markets hit turbulence, the Fed Put might not be there anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not with CPI still at 2.9% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, all eyes are on the S&P 500. The breakout attempt failed twice today. Keep a close eye on the support and resistance levels, a move outside the current range could give us a hint about what\u2019s next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Is the Market Rotating?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While tech took a hit this week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average quietly pushed through last week\u2019s highs and is now flirting with new all-time highs. That\u2019s a notable shift. It looks like capital is rotating, and we may not see the same level of extreme concentration we\u2019ve had recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If that\u2019s the case, breadth could expand, which would support a broader market rally. Keep an eye on a breakout above the 450 level, we failed this attempt at the end of the day Thursday, but if that happens, we could finally see some momentum in the indices that have been lagging growth stocks over the past couple of years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Let the Prices Lead<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ll leave off with this last post for the week, it\u2019s simple, but it sums everything up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The past few months have been littered with news, hype, and emotion. My advice? Ignore it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pick an indicator. Pick a level. In this case, the 10-month moving average of the S&P 500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • If the index stays above this level, it\u2019s an uptrend. Staying long probably makes sense.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • A move below likely signals a trend change, meaning the odds are no longer in your favor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Let prices lead. The fundamentals will follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Disclaimer: Advisory Services offered through Sykon Capital, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This material is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be construed as legal or tax advice and is not intended to replace the advice of a qualified attorney or tax advisor.  The information contained in this presentation has been compiled from third party sources and is believed to be reliable as of the date of this report. Past performance is not indicative of future returns and diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against loss in a declining market. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    —
    Originally posted 31st January 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    By Todd Stankiewicz CMT, CFP, ChFC 1\/ One Wild Week 2\/ Is the Market Rotating? 3\/ Let the Prices Lead Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":201878,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[146,147,8,12,153,22,148,7],"tags":[790,390,311,793,806,379,398],"contributors-categories":[503],"class_list":{"0":"post-201872","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-technical-analysis","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-cpi","16":"tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","17":"tag-fed","18":"tag-fomc","19":"tag-nasdaq","20":"tag-nvda","21":"tag-spx","22":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart Advisor: All Eyes on S&P 500 | Traders' Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Valuation models for current AI companies could crumble under new assumptions. 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