{"id":201639,"date":"2025-01-23T13:15:08","date_gmt":"2025-01-23T18:15:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/bifurcated-trading-action-following-trump-davos-speech\/"},"modified":"2025-01-24T12:13:02","modified_gmt":"2025-01-24T12:13:02","slug":"bifurcated-trading-action-following-trump-davos-speech","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/bifurcated-trading-action-following-trump-davos-speech\/","title":{"rendered":"Bifurcated Trading Action Following Trump Davos Speech: Jan. 23, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Markets are mixed as investors digest this morning\u2019s remarks from US President Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The speech focused on his incoming proposals of lighter taxation, reduced regulations and a manufacturing onshoring push that seeks to reward companies for doing business stateside while penalizing those that keep their operations abroad. The Commander in Chief also spoke a great deal on foreign policy, specifically as it relates to trade, immigration, geopolitics, and oil production. He mentioned that he wants trade to be fair with some of America\u2019s top trade partners including China, Mexico, Canada and the EU. Meanwhile, drill baby drill was also top of mind, including an effort to ask the Saudis to influence OPEC+ into lowering prices for crude. Turning to the economic calendar, continuing unemployment claims marked a 37-month high while the British, South Korean and Canadian economies are continuing to struggle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Continuing Claims Rise to Highest Since Nov\u2019 21<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The labor market softened modestly in the last two weeks, according to this morning\u2019s weekly unemployment claims report. Initial jobless filings rose to 223,000 for the week ended January 18, exceeding the 220,000 median estimate and the 217,000 from the prior period. Continuing filings for the week ended January 11 also increased, climbing to 1.899 million, a 37-month high, above the 1.860 million median estimate and the 1.853 million from the prior interval. Four-week moving averages increased on both fronts from 212,750 and 1.865 million to 213,500 and 1.866 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UK Manufacturers Sentiment Limps Along<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Trade uncertainty and fiscal budget balancing worries are weighing on manufacturing sentiment in the United Kingdom. The Industrial Trends Index from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) registered a -34 result this month, compared to a sharper fall of -40 in December. Survey respondents painted a grim picture, which included contracting orders both domestically and externally, rising cost pressures, reduced capital expenditure plans and lighter headcounts. The main concern happened to be anxiety about demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

South Korea Growth Falters<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Political turbulence and weak household spending weighed on the South Korea economy last quarter. The rate of GDP expansion was barely positive, at just 0.1% quarter over quarter, the same pace as the prior period and missing expectations of 0.2%. Nevertheless, declines in consumer spending and construction investments were countered by fiscal outlays, manufacturing capital expenditures and exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Canadian Consumers Rein in Spending<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sluggish consumption also occurred in Canada, with the nation\u2019s real retail sales declining in November. While transaction dollars were unchanged month over month (m\/m), missing the 0.2% growth projection, retail volumes tanked a sharp 0.4%. Nominal sales also experienced broad-based declines, with 6 of the 9 major categories weighing on the headline figure. Categories experiencing weakness and the amount of their declines were as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Building materials retailers, 2.1%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Food and beverage stores, 1.6%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • General merchandise retailers, 1%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Apparel shops, 0.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Furniture Showrooms, 05%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Health and personal care, 0% (rounded)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

     Automobile dealerships, gasoline stations and sporting goods vendors offset some of the declines, growing 2%, 0.7% and 0.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Singapore CPI Could Support Monetary Easing<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Singapore\u2019s cooperative core Consumer Price Index (CPI) result is incrementally allowing its central bank to ease policy. The figures, which arrive ahead of the Monetary Authority of Singapore\u2019s statement due tomorrow, came in well below the institution\u2019s 2% target. But as the headline and core CPIs for December came in at 1.6% and 1.8% year over year (y\/y), they exceeded the median estimates of 1.5% and 1.7%. The print was similar to the previous month\u2019s 1.9% and 1.6%, however. In the short-term though, headline and core increased 0.3% and 0.5% m\/m, which may contribute to cautious accommodations in policy, especially considering the significant trade uncertainty on the horizon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Japan\u2019s Exports Strengthen<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Heathy demand for automobiles and semiconductor chips and a weaker yen drove a meaningful export beat last month for Japan. Exports rose 2.8% y\/y, well above the 2.3% estimate but slower than the 3.8% in November. The trade balance moved closer to a surplus as a result, especially since import growth was well below anticipations of 2.6% m\/m, dropping 1.8% instead. Imports were driven by American computer products and copper ore from Chile, while export growth was comprised of hybrid cars sent to the US and chip-making equipment to China. The nation\u2019s trade deficit shrank by almost half in 2024 relative to the year earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    US Earnings Reports Depict Strengthening Profits<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Recent earnings from various economic sectors exceeded expectations, a result of strong consumer spending, improving credit conditions and other factors as detailed in the following highlights:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Discover Financial Services (DFS) earnings and revenue surpassed expectations and grew 253% and 14% y\/y, a result of increased credit card spending by customers, record-high net interest income and its loan quality improving. On a y\/y basis, the company lowered its credit loss provision from $1.91 billion to $1.20 billion while net interest income, or the difference in what it pays for capital and the finance charges it collects, climbed 4.7%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • American Airlines (AAL) followed in the wake of United and Delta by posting top-and bottom-line results that surpassed Wall Street\u2019s forecast, but its guidance fell below analysts\u2019 estimates. The company cited higher unit costs from expectations of elevated fuel prices, capacity constraints and wage escalation from union negotiations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Among manufacturers, The Boeing Company\u2019s (BA) production helped GE Aerospace (GE) produce a banner year, including the fourth quarter. With quality control issues and regulatory developments hindering Boeing\u2019s manufacturing, airlines have been forced to increase their use of aging aircraft to meeting growing travel demand, boosting sales of GE\u2019s aerospace components, which are sold with lucrative service contracts. In the recent quarter, earnings and revenue surpassed expectations and the company\u2019s guidance was stronger than expected, despite the company disclosing that supply chain issues are limiting its production of engines and other products.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Railroad company Union Pacific\u2019s (UNP) earnings were better than expected but revenue of $6.12 billion was $300 million less than forecast. Union Pacific\u2019s operating revenue dipped 1% y\/y with the company citing lower surcharges for fuel costs, an unfavorable business mix and other factors. Conversely, overall volume and core pricing strengthened. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      Bifurcated Trading Action<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      Today\u2019s trading action is bifurcated amongst equity benchmarks as well as across the Treasury curve. Indeed, 2 out of the 4 major benchmarks are taking losses while short-duration rates are lighter, but the long-end is heavier. The Dow Jones Industrial and Russell 2000 indices are up 0.7% and 0.2% while the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 gauges are lower by 0.4% and 0.1%. And in the fixed-income complex, the 2- and 10-year Treasury maturities are changing hands at 4.29% and 4.65%, 2 basis points (bps) lower on the former but 3 bps higher on the latter. Sector breadth is positive in equities, with 8 out of 11 segments higher and led by industrials, healthcare and utilities; they\u2019re up 1.1%, 0.9% and 0.8%. Meanwhile, representing the laggards are technology, communication services and consumer discretionary, which are down 0.5%, 0.1% and 0.1%. In currencies and commodities, the dollar is weaker on the back of Trump patience on tariffs while oil is lower on speculation that the Saudis may be able to influence OPEC + towards reduced prices. The greenback\u2019s index is down 29 bps to 107.96 as the US currency depreciates versus most of its major counterparts including the euro, pound sterling, franc, yen and Aussie and Canadian tenders. It is appreciating relative to the yuan though. In commodities, silver, lumber and crude oil are lower by 1%, 0.6% and 0.3% but copper and gold are up 0.8% and 0.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Sentiment Strengthens as Trump Rolls Back Regulations<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      President Trump has already taken steps to roll back burdensome regulations, including withdrawing rules that haven\u2019t been published in the Federal Register, preventing new restrictions from being proposed that haven\u2019t been reviewed by department heads that he has appointed and reversing some of former President Joe Biden\u2019s programs addressing diversity, immigration and climate change. Ideally, reduced regulations can be a positive economic factor by encouraging consumer confidence and business investment. Indeed, I believe the current regulatory regime is excessive: just look at the drag on economic growth in Europe that overbearing business requirements have caused. The lack of pro-growth momentum in Europe has weakened economic activity, lessened entrepreneurship and incrementally destroyed their incentive system. With that in mind, Trump\u2019s early efforts to ease regulatory burdens are being met with optimism from the business community and investors, which is helping to sustain equity gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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