{"id":201461,"date":"2025-01-15T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-15T18:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/extreme-sentiment-led-to-a-powerful-post-cpi-move\/"},"modified":"2025-01-16T10:11:56","modified_gmt":"2025-01-16T10:11:56","slug":"extreme-sentiment-led-to-a-powerful-post-cpi-move","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/extreme-sentiment-led-to-a-powerful-post-cpi-move\/","title":{"rendered":"Extreme Sentiment Led to a Powerful Post-CPI Move"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Socially acceptable volatility is rearing its head again today.\u00a0 The proximate cause of today\u2019s rallies in stocks and bonds was a better-than-expected month-over-month Core CPI reading, but the magnitude of the rallies reflected the jittery sentiment that had pervaded markets \u2013 particularly in the fixed income arena.\u00a0 Extremes in sentiment lead to outsized moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seeing a 0.2% rise in December\u2019s Core CPI was unequivocally a positive development.  Decelerating inflation is always welcome, particularly after Friday\u2019s jobs data inspired traders to temper their expectations for rate cuts<\/a> in the coming year.  Today\u2019s report hasn\u2019t caused traders to fully restore their rate cut expectations to the levels that prevailed last Thursday, but they have improved since yesterday:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The swings in the implied rates for December 2025 roughly correspond with the moves in 2-year and 10-year Treasuries that we have seen over that period.  For example, 2-year rates are 9 basis points lower and 10-year rates are 13bp lower so far today.  Throw in a bit of a relief rally into the more volatile long end of the yield curve and we can see that positive sentiment about the Fed is once again driving a wide range of asset prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But we should also take note of the fact that volatility is having a bit of a resurgence lately.\u00a0 Today is the 18th<\/sup> trading day since (including) the December 18th<\/sup> FOMC meeting.\u00a0 Assuming we hold onto at least most of the current gains, this would be the 9th<\/sup> day when the S&P 500 (SPX) closes with a move of greater than +\/- 1%.\u00a0 You wouldn\u2019t know that from seeing the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) plunge to a 16 handle today, but the rally certainly quelled some demand for hedging protection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current period of greater than average volatility is not a particularly ominous sign, though the only period that featured a concentrated set of moves of this magnitude was late July \u2013 early August, when the yen carry trade imploded<\/a>.  After a brief period of jitters, markets quickly recovered, certainly buoyed by the recognition that the Fed was poised to cut rates \u2013 which they did just a few weeks later.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, when I was discussing the recent bout of volatility with a friend this morning, a quote came to mind<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Short term volatility is greatest at turning points and diminishes as a trend becomes established.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regardless of your personal opinions about his politics, George Soros is one of history\u2019s most successful investors and traders.\u00a0 Thus his insights about investing are worthwhile.\u00a0 As noted above, it is far too early to consider this an ominous sign about a potential turning point for markets, but if the current volatility persists or increases, then this quote would become very pertinent.\u00a0 And remember, volatility encompasses moves in either direction: UP and DOWN.\u00a0 Investors of course prefer the up moves to the down moves, so many are quite pleased today.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Socially acceptable volatility is rearing its head again today. The proximate cause of today\u2019s rallies in stocks and bonds was a better-than-expected month-over-month Core CPI reading, but the magnitude of the rallies reflected the jittery sentiment that had pervaded markets \u2013 particularly in the fixed income arena. 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