{"id":201382,"date":"2025-01-13T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-13T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/some-thoughts-on-the-recent-bond-woes\/"},"modified":"2025-01-14T09:35:15","modified_gmt":"2025-01-14T09:35:15","slug":"some-thoughts-on-the-recent-bond-woes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/some-thoughts-on-the-recent-bond-woes\/","title":{"rendered":"Some Thoughts on the Recent Bond Woes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The global bond selloff is certainly getting plenty of attention from investors, whether or not they normally focus on fixed income.&nbsp; I\u2019ve certainly received more questions about the recent rise in yields than anything else in recent days.&nbsp; It\u2019s not a the easiest topic to parse because there isn\u2019t a single cause for the moves, but the explanations include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Perceptions of a slower path of rate cuts, especially in the US<\/strong>:&nbsp; Investors have been pricing in fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, especially around the December FOMC meeting.&nbsp; After the November meeting there were 4 cuts (of 25 basis points each) expected for 2025.&nbsp; That was down to two by December, and after Friday\u2019s employment report we are only pricing in somewhere between one and two.&nbsp; If we take out 3 x 25bp cuts from the pricing, that\u2019s 75bp, which could explain a good portion of the rise in rates in the US.&nbsp; And we have also seen rate cuts expectations fall in the UK and Europe.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Fears of higher issuance, particularly in the UK and perhaps the US:<\/strong>\u00a0 UK Gilts are around levels that reflected the Liz Truss crisis, and while that was a bit of a shock, the current move also involves fears of big deficits.\u00a0 In the US, it is not clear whether Elon Musk and \u201cDOGE\u201d will be able to deliver the spending cuts that they originally touted, while simultaneously the new administration seems committed to further tax cuts. \u00a0A big \u201ctell\u201d occurred during the government shutdown talks of a few weeks ago \u2013 they temporarily unravelled after a last-minute demand to eliminate the debt ceiling.\u00a0 A new administration that is serious about fiscal responsibility would not make that demand, and thus it is probably not a coincidence that rates took another leg higher after that negotiation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Inflation fears, particularly if a tariff war breaks out<\/strong>:&nbsp; A unilateral set of tariffs might raise prices in the US; retaliation from other countries, particularly if it can be termed a \u201ctariff war\u201d might raise prices everywhere<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Potential changes to the composition of US debt issuance<\/strong>: The nominee for head of the Council of Economic Advisers, Dr. Stephen Miran, wrote a paper with Nouriel Roubini earlier this year asserting that the Yellin Treasury is artificially keeping rates low by favoring short-term issuance.\u00a0 (My colleague Jose Torres hosted an IBKR Podcast on this topic with Drs. Miran and Roubini in August \u2013 I was fortunate to participate.) \u00a0I believe that Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent agrees with Miran.\u00a0 If the market believes that there is a realistic chance for proportionally more long-term note and bond issuance, it could explain the steepening of the US yield curve.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Momentum:<\/strong> Bonds tend to move in trends that last for months at a time.&nbsp; That said, this one is relatively steep and global, rather than being focused on one area.&nbsp; But to some extent, if the US sets a big trend, the rest of the world often follows.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>The big exception: China<\/strong>: Quite frankly, if conditions in China sink sufficiently and they export deflation and economic weakness, that could offset some of the concerns we see elsewhere.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>A popular follow up to the \u201cwhy?\u201d of the bond selloff is the \u201cwhen?\u201d, specifically how long will this persist.&nbsp; My thoughts here include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The real test comes next week, shortly&nbsp;after the Inauguration, when a big wave of executive orders about tariffs and immigration restriction are expected. &nbsp;If those are perceived as being inflationary or having negative ramifications for the budget deficit, then the rout is likely to continue. &nbsp;But if they are relatively modest, then we could see bonds stabilize or even improve in a potential \u201csell the rumor, buy the news\u201d type of event.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>And even though U.S. fiscal policy has little direct effect on the rest of the world, if US borrowing needs are perceived to ease then that could ease concerns in other markets like the UK. &nbsp;And of course, if we can avoid a wave of global tariffs, that would certainly help. &nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>And another wild card is certainly China. &nbsp;If their stimulus appears to be getting some traction, some of the money flowing into Chinese debt might flow elsewhere. &nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>If we don&#8217;t get good news after the inauguration, however, then the timing becomes much more complicated. &nbsp;It would depend more on price than time, meaning that yields reach some level &#8211; say, 5% on the U.S. 10-year &#8211; when investors decide that the selling has gone too far. &nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It is important to keep in mind that rising rates are not always a bad sign for stocks, as long as they\u2019re predicated upon a strengthening economy.\u00a0 While many investors have become conditioned to hope for rate cuts over a stronger economy, if not <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/stock-traders-once-again-reveal-their-liquidity-addiction\/\">outright liquidity addicts<\/a>, I will assert that stocks rose in 2024 <em><u>because<\/u><\/em> we had fewer than the 7-8 cuts that were expected at this time last year.\u00a0 The economy simply didn\u2019t require aggressive rate cutting, and instead was strong enough to spur earnings \u2013 the true driver of stock prices.\u00a0 But if the rates are rising for other reasons \u2013 inflation fears, concerns about over-issuance, etc. \u2013 then those do eventually weigh on sentiment and stock prices.\u00a0 Let\u2019s be careful what we wish for.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The global bond selloff is certainly getting plenty of attention from investors, whether or not they normally focus on fixed income.\u00a0 I\u2019ve certainly received more questions about the recent rise in yields than anything else in recent days.\u00a0 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":9037,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,145,146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[310,718],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-201382","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fixed-income","8":"category-ibkr-market-insights","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-bonds","16":"tag-fixed-income","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2020\/09\/fixed-income-2.jpeg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/201382","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=201382"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/201382\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9037"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=201382"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=201382"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=201382"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=201382"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}