{"id":201258,"date":"2025-01-06T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-06T18:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/tariffs-no-biggie-as-long-as-nvda-is-up\/"},"modified":"2025-01-07T10:31:31","modified_gmt":"2025-01-07T10:31:31","slug":"tariffs-no-biggie-as-long-as-nvda-is-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/tariffs-no-biggie-as-long-as-nvda-is-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Tariffs? No Biggie, As Long As NVDA Is Up"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I was out of the office for the last two trading days, and while I found the beginning-of-year movements to be relatively unsurprising, I did find this morning\u2019s activity to be curious \u2013 at least for a few minutes.  Then the usual reality kicked in.  It\u2019s not about fiscal policy, it\u2019s still about Nvidia (NVDA) and FOMO.  Enthusiasm about Jensen Huang\u2019s address<\/a> to the Consumer Electronics Show outweighed political considerations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Judging from my crowded flights on Wednesday and yesterday, it was obvious that not everyone was back at work last week after the calendar turned.\u00a0 Thus, on Thursday the market seemed to trade as if it had a hangover, and on Friday we had the all-too-common end-of-week surge (I\u2019m going with Friday Follies as a nickname, though I\u2019m open to suggestions) when light volume intersects with hundreds of expiring weekly options.\u00a0 From my vantage point, that appeared to be the reason that Friday\u2019s move continued to accelerate throughout the day on lighter- than-normal volume.\u00a0 There were bargains to be hunted and plenty of expiring strikes for stocks and indices to act as slingshots for a concerted up move after a relatively long and disappointing downdraft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When I woke up this morning, I was originally surprised to see overnight futures continuing the rally rather than showing some profit-taking.  But that was before I saw the Washington Post article<\/a> reporting that the incoming President would be leaning towards tariffs applied to every country but targeted to strategic industries.  Many investors are concerned that broad-based tariffs could be inflationary, so it is understandable why a more limited approach to then would be considered market friendly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But just before the market opened, we learned that the rally was not really about tariffs after all.   President-elect Trump refuted the article on Truth Social at 9:15 EST:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

If traders were truly enthused about the potential changes to the tariff policy, then stocks should have given back a significant piece of their pre-market gains.\u00a0 But they didn\u2019t, and the rally accelerated shortly thereafter.\u00a0 It seems logical to conclude that this morning\u2019s move was never about tariffs.\u00a0The following charts tell more of the story:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Frankly, it\u2019s not every day that we see a major stock rally by more than 10% in two sessions.  Considering that NVDA sports a market capitalization of roughly $3.7 trillion, investors seem to have decided that Huang\u2019s comments will be worth about $370 billion to the value of the company he manages.  But we know that\u2019s not really how investors are thinking.  One of the stocks that dominate market psychology broke out of a short-term trading range on Friday and is now flirting with all-time highs.  No one wants to miss a move like that \u2013 at least in an environment where FOMO is a persistent theme.  So up we went, with megacap stocks once again leading the rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019ll find out after 6:30 PST whether the current move in NVDA is a \u201cbuy-the-rumor, sell-the-news\u201d event.  Remember, that type of reaction is less about the company itself than the market\u2019s anticipation for the event in question.  Expectations are clearly rosy, and considering Huang\u2019s propensity for positive messaging, that seems justified.  \u201cHow rosy\u201d or \u201ctoo rosy\u201d is the question that will be resolved tonight.  Stay tuned tomorrow, and in the meantime, perhaps take advantage of the below-16 VIX.  It strikes me that the least likely CES outcome will be a snooze; thus with NVDA once again taking the market\u2019s lead, some sort of broad reaction seems probable.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s not about fiscal policy, it\u2019s still about Nvidia (NVDA) and FOMO. 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