{"id":201121,"date":"2024-12-27T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-27T17:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/there-goes-santa-claus-2\/"},"modified":"2024-12-30T11:20:06","modified_gmt":"2024-12-30T11:20:06","slug":"there-goes-santa-claus-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/there-goes-santa-claus-2\/","title":{"rendered":"There Goes Santa Claus?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Today is a reminder that just because a \u201cSanta Claus\u201d rally is a statistical likelihood, it is far from guaranteed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Considering that today was shaping up to be a quiet, uneventful day of holiday-period trading, I\u2019ve been fielding more inquiries than I was expecting.&nbsp; The general question of course is \u201cwhy the selloff despite the apparent lack of news?\u201d&nbsp; As with most market explanations, the answer can be murky.&nbsp; The best I can figure out is that there are large accounts, pension funds and the like, who need to rebalance their holdings before year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Can I be certain of this?&nbsp;&nbsp; I not been able to confirm first-hand that this is the case.&nbsp; But it is certainly a highly logical explanation.&nbsp; Considering how stock and bond prices have diverged over the past quarter and past, it is highly likely that stocks have become a disproportionately high percentage of a balanced portfolio.&nbsp; Simply put, if a fund desires a 60\/40 ratio of stocks to bonds in its portfolio, and the stock portion has risen while the bond portion has fallen, they will likely find themselves with, say, 65\/35 or 70\/30.&nbsp; Getting back into balance would require selling stocks and buying bonds.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The following graphs show the divergence, using 10-Year Note Futures (ZN) to show prices, not yields (which move inversely):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-months-spx-red-green-daily-candles-continuous-zn-futures-line\"><strong><em>3-Months, SPX (red\/green daily candles), Continuous ZN futures (line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"877\" height=\"638\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture1-23.png\" alt=\"3-Months, SPX (red\/green daily candles), Continuous ZN futures (line)\" class=\"wp-image-201126 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture1-23.png 877w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture1-23-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture1-23-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture1-23-768x559.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 877px) 100vw, 877px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 877px; aspect-ratio: 877\/638;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-year-spx-red-green-daily-candles-continuous-zn-futures-line\"><strong><em>1-Year, SPX (red\/green daily candles), Continuous ZN futures (line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"876\" height=\"642\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture2-16.png\" alt=\"1-Year, SPX (red\/green daily candles), Continuous ZN futures (line)\" class=\"wp-image-201125 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture2-16.png 876w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture2-16-700x513.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture2-16-300x220.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture2-16-768x563.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 876px) 100vw, 876px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 876px; aspect-ratio: 876\/642;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The intraday trading action certainly suggests that a large seller is active.&nbsp; Note how two successive \u201cbuy-the-dip\u201d attempts failed at the 5970 level, and how the second led almost immediately to new intraday lows.&nbsp; That is the sort of action that occurs when a rally attempt is squelched, causing the short-term speculators switch from buyers to sellers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-intraday-chart-spx-1-minute-candles\"><strong><em>Intraday Chart, SPX (1-minute candles)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"744\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture3-9-1100x744.png\" alt=\"Intraday Chart, SPX (1-minute candles)\" class=\"wp-image-201124 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture3-9-1100x744.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture3-9-700x474.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture3-9-300x203.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture3-9-768x520.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture3-9.png 1113w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/744;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unfortunately, there is a flaw in the \u201crebalancing\u201d theory:&nbsp; Bond prices haven\u2019t been the inverse of stock prices since early in the session.&nbsp; It is possible that the overall selling in bonds remains substantial, or that the funds are simply raising cash.&nbsp; We see short-term rates lower on the day, so it would make sense if the funds raised from selling stocks are being deployed in cash equivalents.&nbsp; Or of course, the sellers may be waiting until their sales settle on Monday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-intraday-chart-zn-1-minute-candles\"><strong><em>Intraday Chart, ZN (1-minute candles)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"741\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture4-6-1100x741.png\" alt=\"Intraday Chart, ZN (1-minute candles)\" class=\"wp-image-201123 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture4-6-1100x741.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture4-6-700x472.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture4-6-300x202.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture4-6-768x517.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture4-6.png 1152w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/741;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The following graph shows the disruption to the Santa rally.&nbsp; Both SPX and NDX are trading below the lowest levels of Tuesday\u2019s shortened session, though they are still up for the week.&nbsp; Most consider the Santa Claus rally to begin on Christmas Eve, so it is now no longer a rally.&nbsp; But as of midday we remain higher for the holiday week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-4-day-chart-spx-1-minute-candles-ndx-blue-line\"><strong><em>4-day Chart, SPX (1-minute candles), NDX (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1032\" height=\"686\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture5-4.png\" alt=\"4-day Chart, SPX (1-minute candles), NDX (blue line)\" class=\"wp-image-201122 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture5-4.png 1032w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture5-4-700x465.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture5-4-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture5-4-768x511.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1032px) 100vw, 1032px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1032px; aspect-ratio: 1032\/686;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today is a reminder that just because a \u201cSanta Claus\u201d rally is a statistical likelihood, it is far from guaranteed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":201012,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,147,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-201121","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>There Goes Santa Claus? | Traders&#039; 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