{"id":201049,"date":"2024-12-20T17:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-20T17:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/the-rudolph-rally\/"},"modified":"2025-03-21T18:47:28","modified_gmt":"2025-03-21T18:47:28","slug":"the-rudolph-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/the-rudolph-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"The Rudolph Rally"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>One of the characteristics of a momentum driven market is that traders chase moves, both up and down.&nbsp; We saw the latter on Wednesday, when the market tanked.&nbsp; We saw it yesterday morning when a modest rally metastasized into a nearly 1% move before fading on a lack of follow-through.&nbsp; And we see it this morning.&nbsp; After the early selling abated, a modest rally turned into a sizeable upswing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The interesting part is that both Friday\u2019s and today\u2019s moves are a bit out of proportion with the news.&nbsp; Wednesday\u2019s FOMC meeting was certainly the cause of the jitters.&nbsp; But as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/goldilocks-turns-grinch\/\">we pointed out yesterday<\/a>, the basic elements of the FOMC\u2019s actions were almost exactly what the markets were expecting beforehand \u2013 a 25bp rate cut and guidance that pointed to only two cuts in 2025.&nbsp; Yet some of the underlying data in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and commentary from Chair Powell spooked the bond market to a greater degree than the headlines would have indicated.&nbsp; That led to higher yields, which led to a stronger dollar, which led to pressure on multinationals, which then spooked an equity market that had been displaying some cracks under the surface.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/it-went-to-11\/\">We concluded Tuesday\u2019s piece with<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <em>They [markets] may not be fragile, but they\u2019re certainly not \u201canti-fragile.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It turns out that there was some fragility, and the selling began to feed upon itself.&nbsp; That\u2019s momentum at work.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This morning\u2019s activity, however, is what we see when FOMO powers the momentum.&nbsp; Stocks opened lower after disappointment that the hoped-for resolution to avoid a government shutdown failed last night.&nbsp; But just as yesterday\u2019s attempted rally failed when there was no follow-through \u2013 and the stubbornly high level of VIX was a \u201ctell\u201d that nerves were still frayed yesterday \u2013 today\u2019s selling also ran out of steam.&nbsp; It\u2019s understandable why buyers would have stepped in \u2013 that\u2019s what good traders do.&nbsp; What\u2019s less understandable is why we now see an across-the-board rally of about 1.8%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s where the FOMO comes in.&nbsp; It\u2019s one thing to hop on a rally, another thing to chase it relentlessly.&nbsp; The news flow this morning has been mildly positive, with slightly better PCE readings that took pre-market futures off their lows, and a mixed UMich Consumer Confidence report at 10am.&nbsp; The rally began in earnest after the numbers, but not for about 15-20 minutes. &nbsp;There have been some rumblings about the potential for a Congressional deal, but nothing substantive.&nbsp; &nbsp;Bond yields have declined by about 4-7bp, so that\u2019s a positive, but not enough to propel a monster rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No, this was about momentum writ large.&nbsp; Those who sold into the decline or missed the opportunity to buy at the lows seemed to return with a vengeance. The fact that it\u2019s a quarterly expiration Friday certainly abetted the potential for a big move, since we have literally thousands of possibilities for a rally to push stocks through expiring strikes.&nbsp; And there is a definite \u201cWhat Me, Worry?\u201d characteristic to the move, with VIX collapsing from 24.09 to 18.34.&nbsp; We\u2019re not back to full complacency, but the sizeable backwardation in VIX futures is now gone, meaning the excess demand for volatility protection is now gone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course the final theory for the ferocity of today\u2019s rally could be the desire to front-run Santa Claus.&nbsp; Before this week\u2019s bout of volatility, the consensus was for a placid, upward end to the year.&nbsp; It\u2019s clear that many have returned to that type of thinking.&nbsp; I\u2019ll call today\u2019s move the Rudolph Rally, where people have decided that they now have the ability to see through whatever holiday murk might have inhibited the markets before today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One of the characteristics of a momentum driven market is that traders chase moves, both up and down.\u00a0 We saw the latter on Wednesday, when the market tanked.\u00a0 We saw it yesterday morning when a modest rally metastasized into a nearly 1% move before fading on a lack of follow-through.\u00a0 And we see it this morning.\u00a0 After the early selling abated, a modest rally turned into a sizeable upswing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":201050,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,147,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[747,365,2846,1530,745],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-201049","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-fomo","15":"tag-market-volatility","16":"tag-momentum-driven-market","17":"tag-rally","18":"tag-vix","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast 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