{"id":200934,"date":"2024-12-17T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-17T18:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/it-went-to-11\/"},"modified":"2025-03-21T18:50:22","modified_gmt":"2025-03-21T18:50:22","slug":"it-went-to-11","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/it-went-to-11\/","title":{"rendered":"It Went to 11"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Last week, in a piece entitled \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/sp-500-halitosis\/\">S&amp;P 500 Halitosis<\/a>\u201d, we noted the bad <em>breadth<\/em> that has accompanied the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) Index this month.&nbsp; In each of December\u2019s eight trading days prior to its writing, SPX decliners had outpaced advancers each day.&nbsp; Despite yesterday\u2019s advance, the streak hit day 11; today\u2019s decline threatens day 12.&nbsp; I can\u2019t find a precedent for the current situation, where the market rose \u2013 SPX is currently up 0.3% for the month \u2013 amidst a streak of this sort.&nbsp; The longer it goes, the more likely this becomes a concern rather than a statistical fluke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The following graph sums up the screaming divergence in the markets right now.&nbsp; As noted above, SPX is essentially treading water for the month of December.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is up over 5% but the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (SPW) is down over 3%.&nbsp; The largest stocks, primarily megacap tech shares, are once again carrying the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-12-days-spx-red-green-15-minute-candles-ndx-blue-spw-purple\"><strong><em>12-Days, SPX (red\/green 15 minute candles), NDX (blue), SPW (purple)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"881\" height=\"597\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture3-4.png\" alt=\"12-Days, SPX (red\/green 15 minute candles), NDX (blue), SPW (purple)\" class=\"wp-image-200935 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture3-4.png 881w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture3-4-700x474.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture3-4-300x203.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture3-4-768x520.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 881px) 100vw, 881px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 881px; aspect-ratio: 881\/597;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In case you harbor any doubts that the current market environment is a thoroughly tech-focused, story-driven, momentum fest, this chart should puncture them.&nbsp; The key market themes involve semiconductors, crypto, AI, and quantum computing.&nbsp; Of course there is no shortage of overlap among those themes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Broadcom (AVGO) was up 38% in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/its-all-about-guidance-once-again\/\">a stupendous post-earnings rally<\/a> that ran from Friday through yesterday.&nbsp; The move was triggered by increased guidance, which in turn was spurred by fresh demand for its AI-related chips.&nbsp; It is now the 8<sup>th<\/sup> largest component in SPX and #4 in NDX.&nbsp; Thus, it checks the \u201cmegacap\u201d, \u201csemiconductor\u201d, \u201cAI\u201d boxes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The megacap companies that precede AVGO in SPX weight also tend to check multiple boxes.&nbsp; Tesla (TSLA) has some stake in crypto and utilizes AI in its self-driving technology; Meta Platforms (META) has an open-source AI offering.&nbsp; I can go on, but you should get the point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Just last week, Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) started a frenzy about quantum computing since announcing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/ck\/a?!&amp;&amp;p=aa637eabe140fc17963d24173d326034feeb42ea16f86a0f16634e137281d93aJmltdHM9MTczNDM5MzYwMA&amp;ptn=3&amp;ver=2&amp;hsh=4&amp;fclid=396fb4cb-d070-6bc1-3e1a-a19ad1c06ae6&amp;psq=alphabet+quantum+computer&amp;u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucmV1dGVycy5jb20vdGVjaG5vbG9neS9nb29nbGUtcGFyZW50LWFscGhhYmV0LWp1bXBzLXF1YW50dW0tY2hpcC1icmVha3Rocm91Z2gtMjAyNC0xMi0xMC8&amp;ntb=1\">a breakthrough in that field<\/a>.&nbsp; Most of the other beneficiaries are small companies, but who had been paying attention to recent winners like Rigetti (RGTI) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS)?&nbsp;&nbsp; The following two charts show how much GOOGL has risen since that announcement and how the rally in the megacap pales in comparison to its tiny competitors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-googl-9-days-hourly-candles\"><strong>GOOGL 9-Days Hourly Candles<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"883\" height=\"643\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture2-8.png\" alt=\"GOOGL 9-Days Hourly Candles\" class=\"wp-image-200937 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture2-8.png 883w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture2-8-700x510.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture2-8-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture2-8-768x559.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 883px) 100vw, 883px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 883px; aspect-ratio: 883\/643;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-9-days-googl-red-green-hourly-candles-rgti-blue-qbts-purple\"><strong><em>9-Days, GOOGL (red\/green hourly candles), RGTI (blue), QBTS (purple)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"881\" height=\"640\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture1-14.png\" alt=\"9-Days, GOOGL (red\/green hourly candles), RGTI (blue), QBTS (purple)\" class=\"wp-image-200941 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture1-14.png 881w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture1-14-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture1-14-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture1-14-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 881px) 100vw, 881px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 881px; aspect-ratio: 881\/640;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>But is very important to keep the magnitudes of the money in perspective.&nbsp; The stupendous rallies in RGTI and QBTS have pushed their combined market cap to just under $4bn.&nbsp; Meanwhile, GOOGL\u2019s 12% move has added about $300bn in market cap to Alphabet.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus if the big boys can keep getting bigger, they can keep SPX afloat.&nbsp; But this raises the fragility inherent in the marketplace.&nbsp; Stock market rallies are best built upon a broad base.&nbsp; If we continually chip away at the market\u2019s foundation, a shock to any of the few remaining pillars increases the chance that it can topple the tower.&nbsp; So far, the recent decline in Nvidia (NVDA) has not been deleterious to the overall market because its shrinkage has been met by growth in AVGO and others.&nbsp; But it is unreasonable to expect this type of rotation to occur indefinitely.&nbsp; If the negative SPX A\/D picture continues to weaken, evermore weight rests upon the few remaining pillars.&nbsp; They may not be fragile, but they\u2019re certainly not \u201canti-fragile.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last week, in a piece entitled \u201cS&#038;P 500 Halitosis\u201d, we noted the bad breadth that has accompanied the S&#038;P 500 (SPX) Index this month.\u00a0 In each of December\u2019s eight trading days prior to its writing, SPX decliners had outpaced advancers each day.\u00a0 Despite yesterday\u2019s advance, the streak hit day 11; today\u2019s decline threatens day 12.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":8681,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[147,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[2889,2822,2890,1527,1330],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-200934","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-stocks","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-market-breadth","14":"tag-market-divergence","15":"tag-megacap-tech","16":"tag-nasdaq-100","17":"tag-sp-500","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - 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