{"id":200714,"date":"2024-12-13T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-13T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/its-all-about-guidance-once-again\/"},"modified":"2025-03-21T18:54:31","modified_gmt":"2025-03-21T18:54:31","slug":"its-all-about-guidance-once-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/its-all-about-guidance-once-again\/","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s All About Guidance, Once Again"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thanks to an out-of-the-office business appointment, today\u2019s piece will be a bit more brief than usual.&nbsp; Some things that have caught my attention this morning include investor\u2019s understandable love for optimistic corporate guidance, their disdain for GAAP earnings, another yield curve disinversion, and continued bad breadth.&nbsp; For brevity\u2019s sake, we will present them in the form of an outline rather than the usual paragraph format.<br>Guidance!<br>Broadcom (AVGO) had a modest beat on current earnings, but it\u2019s the optimistic guidance that got the stock zooming.&nbsp; The opposite was the case with Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) earlier this week. &nbsp;It\u2019s quite clear that an EPS beat in the current quarter is a necessary, but not a sufficient condition for a rally. &nbsp;<br>Remember that one of the pillars of the market\u2019s valuation is that there is a general expectation for S&amp;P 500 (SPX) earnings to be up about 15%.&nbsp; Considering that real GDP is expected to be about 3% and inflation is running about 3%, that implies that big companies can grow earnings by an incremental 9%.&nbsp; That\u2019s doable, but it implies that a lot of profit optimism is already baked into stock prices.&nbsp; Any shortfall is being punished, often harshly.<br>Do GAAP<a id=\"_ednref1\" href=\"#_edn1\">[i]<\/a> earnings matter?&nbsp; Apparently not. On a GAAP basis, AVGO earned $0.94 but reported $1.42 on a pro-forma basis.&nbsp; This spread is typical for AVGO, along with a wide range of tech and other companies.&nbsp; Remember that pro-forma earnings exclude certain costs that a company believes distort its true profitability,<br>Pro-forma all but assures that a company can beat its number.&nbsp; It\u2019s nice to be able to selectively exclude expenses.&nbsp;<br>Hence the focus on revenues, cash flows and guidance.&nbsp; Those are unadulterated.<br>&nbsp;<br>Once again there are far more SPX decliners vs. advancers (367-130 as I type this).&nbsp; On the NYSE it\u2019s 2.5:1 for the decliners.&nbsp; The rally is narrowing, not broadening.<br>&nbsp;<br>The 3mo\/10yr yield curve finally disinverted.&nbsp; Most of us have been focused on the 2-10 relationship, but one can argue that the 3mo-10y is more important because it more directly affects a bank\u2019s cost of funding. Either way, the following chart shows that while inverted yield curves are a considered a harbinger of recessions, the recessions only begin AFTER the curve normalizes:<br>(in chart below, white histogram is 2-10, blue line is 3m-10, red is when NBER declared the start of a recession and green is when they say it ended)<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spreads-between-2yr-and-10yr-us-treasuries-white-3mo-and-10yr-treasuries-blue-recession-starts-red-and-ends-green-as-determined-by-nber\"><strong><em>Spreads Between 2yr and 10yr US Treasuries (white), 3mo and 10yr Treasuries (blue), Recession Starts (red) and Ends (green) as Determined by NBER<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"571\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture1-9-1100x571.png\" alt=\"Spreads Between 2yr and 10yr US Treasuries (white), 3mo and 10yr Treasuries (blue), Recession Starts (red) and Ends (green) as Determined by NBER\" class=\"wp-image-200715 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture1-9-1100x571.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture1-9-700x363.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture1-9-300x156.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture1-9-768x399.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/12\/Picture1-9.png 1422w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/571;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Bloomberg, Interactive Brokers<br>&#8212;<br><a id=\"_edn1\" href=\"#_ednref1\">[i]<\/a> GAAP: Generally Accepted Accounting Principles<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Some things that have caught my attention this morning include investor\u2019s understandable love for optimistic corporate guidance, their disdain for GAAP earnings, another yield curve disinversion, and continued bad breadth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":10481,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[145,147,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[2896,2897,686,2889,2898],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":["post-200714","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-corporate-guidance","tag-gaap-vs-pro-forma-earnings","tag-investor-sentiment","tag-market-breadth","tag-yield-curve-disinversion","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 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