{"id":200540,"date":"2024-12-06T13:21:36","date_gmt":"2024-12-06T13:21:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=200540"},"modified":"2024-12-06T17:07:54","modified_gmt":"2024-12-06T17:07:54","slug":"going-global-short-duration-bonds-well-positioned-for-economic-divergence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/going-global-short-duration-bonds-well-positioned-for-economic-divergence\/","title":{"rendered":"Going global: Short-duration bonds well positioned for economic divergence"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Originally Posted 4 Dec 2024 | Daniel Siluk<\/strong>, Head of Short Duration & Liquidity | Portfolio Manager – Going global: Short-duration bonds well positioned for economic divergence<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Head of Global Short Duration Daniel Siluk believes that an extension of the economic cycle in the U.S. and suspect growth elsewhere create an opportunity for bond investors to capture attractive yields and preserve capital by diversifying globally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In assessing the prospects for global bonds in 2025, investors must consider the inextricable links between the shifting macro and policy environments. In the U.S., even prior to November\u2019s election, markets were calibrating expectations for the Federal Reserve\u2019s (Fed) easing cycle. The combination of a resilient labor market and inflation falling perhaps not as rapidly as hoped lessened the urgency to cut rates as an extension of the economic cycle was priced in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In many respects, the election of former President Donald Trump increased the likelihood of sustained economic growth, but it also introduced new uncertainties that bond investors cannot ignore. While pro-growth initiatives such as deregulation and tax reform could spur investment and consumption, tariffs and trade barriers could be inflationary at the very least and \u2013 at worst \u2013 present potential hindrances to global growth should these measures be reciprocated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Already interest rates have taken notice. The U.S. Treasuries yield curve has risen across all tenors. Shorter-dated yields reflect a more subdued rate cut trajectory, and longer-dated yields have risen as investors account for greater volatility, potentially higher growth, and the possibility that the battle to fully tame inflation isn\u2019t over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Facing acute headwinds, other regions \u2013 much of Europe, for example \u2013 may have to be more deliberate in easing policy. It will be the responsibility of investors digging into the details to determine which regions, sectors, and securities will be net beneficiaries of the incoming administration\u2019s policies and which may face new headwinds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exhibit 1: Market-based expectations for policy rate paths<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations for an extension of the economic cycle could benefit certain corporate bonds, but they also indicate that, in many regions, more rate-sensitive issuance will receive less of a tailwind from rate cuts in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Market-based<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg, Janus Henderson Investors, as of 29 November 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From an investment perspective, diverging economic and policy prospects create both opportunities and risks for bond investors. Across jurisdictions, the battle against inflation has sent yields to levels that can again provide investors with attractive income streams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The outlook for rates is evolving, however. With Europe facing floundering growth, bond yields may continue to fall farther, representing an opportunity for capital appreciation along the front end of sovereign curves. In the U.S., any pro-growth initiatives or barriers to trade may alter the pace of inflation\u2019s downward trajectory. This could lead to additional volatility in mid- to longer-dated Treasuries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As different regions travel their own economic and policy paths, investors with a global view have the opportunity to increase diversification within fixed income allocations by incorporating issuance with attractive yields and securities in regions where rates may fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exhibit 2: U.S. Treasuries curve<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. Treasuries curve remains relatively flat, meaning longer-dated notes could be subject to volatility should economic growth or inflation surprise to the upside \u2013 scenarios that must be accounted for given the transition of power in Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"U.S.<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg, Janus Henderson Investors, as of 29 November 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One must also consider what\u2019s already been price into markets. In the U.S., for example, the nominal yield on the 10-year note has risen by as much as 80 basis points (bps) since mid-September, with rising expectations for inflation over the next decade accounting for a considerable portion of the increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We believe a similar global approach should be applied when seeking opportunities within corporate credits. Diverging economic prospects have implications for corporate issuers\u2019 credit profiles. And with valuations elevated across the asset class, investors have the opportunity to seek out regions where stabilizing \u2013 or improving \u2013 economic conditions should fortify an issuer\u2019s ability to meet its obligations. In contrast, where growth is more tenuous, richly valued and more cyclically exposed issuance is best avoided.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, valuations in some regions appear more favorable than others, often for the same credit rating \u2013 or even specific issuer. With volatile currency exposure hedged away, global investors can maximize the potential for excess return with little or no incremental increase in risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exhibit 3: Global credit spreads<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

With valuations of corporate credits \u2013 as measured by the difference between their yields and those of their risk-free benchmarks \u2013 relatively rich, investors may seek out regions that offer more attractive relative value for the same level of risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Global<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg, Janus Henderson Investors, as of 29 November 2024. Note: Data based on following indices: Bloomberg US Aggregate Corporate Index, Bloomberg Australian Corporate Index, Bloomberg Pan-European Aggregate Corporate Index, Bloomberg Canada Aggregate Corporate Index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One way to navigate the still-uncertain economic environment is to focus on shorter-dated corporate issuance. Higher yields relative to much of the past 15 years have resulted in the potential to generate attractive returns due to the steeper roll down of these securities as they near maturity. Over these shorter time horizons, investors tend to have better visibility into an issuer\u2019s ability to service its debts. The rationale for a focus on the front end is reinforced by still-low term premiums, meaning investors are potentially exposing themselves to considerably more volatility for only marginally higher returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policy matters<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We expect to gain greater insight into President-elect Trump\u2019s economic priorities during the early months of his administration. His team\u2019s approach to trade, deficits, and the economic aspects of his national security agenda will reverberate globally. Pro-growth initiatives would likely keep Treasury yields high relative to global peers. The accompanying dollar strength would come at the expense of other currencies and also funnel a greater share of global investment toward the U.S. This could aggravate the economic positions of regions like Europe. And to the degree this agenda would alter expected growth trajectories, it would inevitably influence the decisions of the Fed and other central banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Definitions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Basis point (bp)<\/strong> equals 1\/100 of a percentage point. 1 bp = 0.01%, 100 bps = 1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Credit Spread<\/strong> is the difference in yield between securities with similar maturity but different credit quality. Widening spreads generally indicate deteriorating creditworthiness of corporate borrowers, and narrowing indicate improving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Duration<\/strong> measures a bond price\u2019s sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The longer a bond\u2019s duration, the higher its sensitivity to changes in interest rates and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monetary Policy<\/strong> refers to the policies of a central bank, aimed at influencing the level of inflation and growth in an economy. It includes controlling interest rates and the supply of money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quantitative Easing (QE)<\/strong> is a government monetary policy occasionally used to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Roll down<\/strong> is the tendency of a fixed income security\u2019s market price to approach its par value as it nears maturity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Volatility<\/strong> measures risk using the dispersion of returns for a given investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A yield curve<\/strong> plots the yields (interest rate) of bonds with equal credit quality but differing maturity dates. Typically bonds with longer maturities have higher yields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IMPORTANT INFORMATION<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fixed income securities are subject to interest rate, inflation, credit and default risk.  The bond market is volatile. As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa.  The return of principal is not guaranteed, and prices may decline if an issuer fails to make timely payments or its credit strength weakens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are the views of the author at the time of publication and may differ from the views of other individuals\/teams at Janus Henderson Investors. References made to individual securities do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, investment strategy or market sector, and should not be assumed to be profitable. Janus Henderson Investors, its affiliated advisor, or its employees, may have a position in the securities mentioned.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance does not predict future returns. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The information in this article does not qualify as an investment recommendation.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is no guarantee that past trends will continue, or forecasts will be realised.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Marketing Communication.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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