{"id":199417,"date":"2024-10-31T12:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-31T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/a-spooky-end-to-the-month-looking-to-aapl-and-amzn\/"},"modified":"2024-11-01T17:44:54","modified_gmt":"2024-11-01T17:44:54","slug":"a-spooky-end-to-the-month-looking-to-aapl-and-amzn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-spooky-end-to-the-month-looking-to-aapl-and-amzn\/","title":{"rendered":"A Spooky End to the Month; Looking to AAPL and AMZN"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This morning, Halloween is bringing tricks, not treats to many investors.  The S&P 500 (SPX) seemed set to extend its monthly winning streak to six, but it seems to be choking \u2013 just like my Yankees did last night.  Yes, I\u2019m tired and cranky after a lousy night in the Bronx, but even though I can\u2019t be objective about my team\u2019s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, I\u2019ll do my best to keep my sour mood out of today\u2019s analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While last night\u2019s baseball game hinged upon a series of silly mistakes, today\u2019s drop seems to be much more rooted in cogent thinking.  Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) are leading a broad selloff.  Both companies handily beat their EPS estimates \u2013 MSFT $3.30 vs. $3.11 exp, and META $6.03 vs $5.52 exp \u2013 but their commentary seems to have spooked investors, nonetheless.  MSFT offered tepid guidance for its Azure cloud division, noting that they fell short of data center capacity and thus will need to spend more to catch up.  META reaffirmed its commitment to spend heavily on artificial intelligence and other forward-looking technologies.  META investors have heard this before, perhaps recalling the stock\u2019s swoon in 2022 when its heavy spending on the metaverse failed to improve the bottom line. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That combination has led to some rethinking about the promise of AI.  At some point, all this spending has to improve the bottom lines of its users \u2013 not just the chipmakers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market\u2019s mindset seems to be switching from one where anything AI-related was a reason for enthusiasm towards one where investors are looking for some returns on their massive spending.  That\u2019s definitely what\u2019s hitting META and MSFT today.  If I\u2019m investing in a company that is spending billions on AI chips, servers, and developers, I\u2019d eventually like to see that resulting in some ROI. And I think an increasing number of investors agree, though not all. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately, we need to see a wide range of companies see bottom-line results from their AI activities.  So far, it\u2019s been a huge boon to the chipmakers, the picks and shovels of the AI gold rush, and there is a giant halo on the \u201cminers\u201d, the software providers like MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN, etc.  But think about the early days of the internet.  It did indeed prove to be a huge productivity boost for a wide range of companies, but it took a while to achieve it.  I would not be surprised if we start to see some more skepticism about AI spending until we start to see some real productivity as a result \u2013 not just a lot of capital spending.  Let\u2019s see what AAPL and AMZN have to say on the topic today.  (And will the potential accounting issues at NVDA\u2019s 3rd<\/em> largest customer (SMCI)  have any effect on its bottom line?)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So now it\u2019s Apple\u2019s (AAPL) and Amazon\u2019s (AMZN) turns at bat.  On a one-year basis, both have offered double-digit returns, and on a year-to-date basis they have performed roughly in line with SPX and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1-Year Chart, AAPL (red\/green daily candles), AMZN (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at AAPL, the IBKR Probability Lab reveals little.  We have a symmetrical probability distribution with a peak in at-money options:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for AAPL Options Expiring November 1st<\/sup>, 2024<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skew charts reveal a bit more risk aversion.  Once again, we see a bit of a \u201cW\u201d shape, but there is a pronounced bias to the downside.  Today\u2019s drop seems to have traders a bit more concerned about the potential for another megacap dip.  The at-money, near-term options have a daily volatility just shy of 5.5%.  That is well above the average for the past six post-earnings moves of 2.87% (+0.69%, +5.98%, -0.54%, -0.52%,-4.8%, +4.69%)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skews for AAPL Options Expiring November 1st<\/sup> (dark blue), November 8th<\/sup> (light blue), November 15th<\/sup> (yellow)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is normal for implied volatilities to rise as an earnings date approaches, but the one-day change in AAPL is indeed quite pronounced.  A down day will do that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skew for AAPL Options Expiring November 1, 2024, Today (dark green), Yesterday (light green)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interestingly, AMZN options tell a different story from AAPL\u2019s.  In AMZN\u2019s case, the Probability Lab shows a peak below the current $186.21 in the $180-$182 range:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for AMZN Options Expiring November 1st<\/sup>, 2024<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skews, however, are largely flattish, with only a slight tilt towards the downside.  Those too reflect a daily at-money implied volatility well above the 6.34%  average of the past six post-earnings moves (-8.78%, +2.29%, +7.87%, +6.83%, +8.27%, -3.98%).  The flat skew might be the result of four rises after the last five earnings. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skews for AMZN Options Expiring November 1st<\/sup> (dark blue), November 8th<\/sup> (light blue), November 15th<\/sup> (yellow)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As with AAPL, the front week\u2019s volatilities expanded dramatically today:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skew for AMZN Options Expiring November 1, 2024, Today (dark green), Yesterday (light green)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today\u2019s reports will hopefully offer some clarity into whether AI is benefitting two important tech giants.  AMZN has noted that AI has improved the company by simplifying many programming tasks, though it\u2019s not clear if those benefits have been quantified.  AAPL\u2019s latest iPhones have highlighted their improved AI ability.  We hope to learn if that is engaging buyers, leading to greater revenues and profits.  For today, at least, that seems to be what investors want.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This morning, Halloween is bringing tricks, not treats to many investors. The S&P 500 (SPX) seemed set to extend its monthly winning streak to six, but it seems to be choking \u2013 just like my Yankees did last night. 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Yes, I\u2019m tired and cranky after a lousy night in the Bronx, but even though I can\u2019t be objective about my team\u2019s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, I\u2019ll do my best to keep my sour mood out of today\u2019s analysis.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-spooky-end-to-the-month-looking-to-aapl-and-amzn\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-spooky-end-to-the-month-looking-to-aapl-and-amzn\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-spooky-end-to-the-month-looking-to-aapl-and-amzn\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/11\/halloween-treats-e1634832682249.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/11\/halloween-treats-e1634832682249.jpg","width":1000,"height":563,"caption":"halloween treats"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-spooky-end-to-the-month-looking-to-aapl-and-amzn\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"A Spooky End to the Month; Looking to AAPL and AMZN"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/","name":"IBKR Campus EU","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549","name":"Steve Sosnick","description":"Steve is the Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers. He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/11\/halloween-treats-e1634832682249.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=199417"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199417\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/199430"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=199417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=199417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=199417"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=199417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}