{"id":199309,"date":"2024-10-28T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-28T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/buckle-up-for-a-big-earnings-week\/"},"modified":"2024-11-11T18:21:04","modified_gmt":"2024-11-11T18:21:04","slug":"buckle-up-for-a-big-earnings-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/buckle-up-for-a-big-earnings-week\/","title":{"rendered":"Buckle Up for a Big Earnings Week"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Enjoy the relative calm today, because we have a very busy week ahead.\u00a0 Five of the so-called \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d stocks report over the course of this week (Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) on the 29th<\/sup>, Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) on the 30th<\/sup>, and Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) on the 31st[i]<\/a>), while we also receive key economic reports on Thursday and Friday (the GDP and Payrolls reports, respectively).\u00a0 That\u2019s quite a bit for markets to digest.
It is important to remember the weights of the reporting stocks in key indices.\u00a0 They have the five biggest weights in the S&P 500 (SPX)[ii]<\/a>, summing to over 20%.\u00a0 Because the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) uses a modified market cap weighting, Broadcom (AVGO) sneaks into 5th<\/sup> place, but when we sum the five stocks plus \u201cMag 7\u201d-adjacent AMD (also reporting on the 29th<\/sup>), we arrive at about one-third of that index.\u00a0 No matter how we view it, these are all potentially market-movers.\u00a0 That said, if we get divergent results, the index effects can indeed be muted.\u00a0 Suppose META goes up while MSFT goes down by a similar amount (or vice versa) \u2013 the combined effect on the indices will be virtually nil.\u00a0
The same can\u2019t easily be said for the economic reports.\u00a0 A significant surprise in either the GDP or Payrolls report would have a profound impact on bonds as well as stocks \u2013 and the bond market appears more fragile than the equity area.\u00a0 Over the past two weeks we have seen SPX meander around all-time high levels even as 2- and 10-year Treasury yields rose about 20 basis points, a very significant jump in a short period of time.\u00a0\u00a0
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

10 days, 2-Year (white, right scale), and 10-Year (red, right scale) Yields vs. SPX (blue, left scale)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"10<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg
Yields have a sometimes-elusive relationship with stock prices.\u00a0 In theory, higher yields depress the present value of a company\u2019s earnings and cash flows, reducing its current stock price.\u00a0 In practice, however, that is infrequently the case, at least in the short term.\u00a0 Also, it depends on why the rates are rising.\u00a0 If they are increasing because of perceived economic strength, that should indeed be positive for stock prices because that boosts prospects for corporate earnings.\u00a0 Unfortunately, with the election just a week away, it is difficult to disentangle concerns about rising deficits from pure economics.\u00a0 Furthermore, some of the geopolitical \u201cflight to safety\u201d premium may have ebbed today along with the $4 drop in crude oil after Israel\u2019s targeted attack spared Iran\u2019s oil facilities.
The economic picture seems quite solid, with consensus estimates for a rise in Q3 GDP to 3.0%.\u00a0 The Atlanta Fed\u2019s GDPNow is currently even higher, at 3.3%, and the IBKR ForecastTrader shows a 71% likelihood of the report being above 2.6%.\u00a0 The Core PCE Price Index, akin to the Fed\u2019s preferred Core PCE Deflator, is expected to rise by 0.3% on a monthly basis.\u00a0 These may not be friendly for those hoping for aggressive rate cuts, but they are not dealbreakers for stock investors.
As for October Nonfarm Payrolls, the consensus is for a rise of 110k, down from September\u2019s 254k, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 4.1%.\u00a0 Even with the potential for a big drop in payrolls, those combine for a relatively healthy labor market.\u00a0 Those trading on the ForecastTrader are more optimistic on payrolls, with 64% expecting a report higher than 129,000, and around consensus on unemployment, with 53% expecting more than 4.1%.
Finally, a good way to track the equity market\u2019s expectations for short-term volatility is the VIX9D index.\u00a0 The calculation similar to VIX, but instead of using SPX options with about 30 days to expiry, this uses options with about 9 days left.\u00a0 We see that index increasing toward recent highs even as \u201cbig brother\u201d VIX is unimpressed.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1-Month, VIX9D (red\/green hourly candles), vs VIX (blue line)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"1-Month,<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—
[i]<\/a> Nvidia (NVDA) is expected to report around November 21st<\/sup>, and of course Tesla (TSLA) reported last week.
[ii]<\/a> Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) has a higher weight than either class of Alphabet, but the combination of GOOG and GOOGL outweighs Mr. Buffett\u2019s company.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Enjoy the relative calm today, because we have a very busy week ahead.\u00a0 Five of the so-called \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d stocks report over the course of this week (Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) on the 29th, Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) on the 30th, and Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) on the 31st), while we also receive key economic reports on Thursday and Friday (the GDP and Payrolls reports, respectively).\u00a0 That\u2019s quite a bit for markets to digest.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":199310,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,147,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[252,314,316],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-199309","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-earnings","15":"tag-market-outlook","16":"tag-stocks","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBuckle Up for a Big Earnings Week | Traders' Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Enjoy the relative calm today, 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets several media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/10\/charts-money-people-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199309","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=199309"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199309\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/199310"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=199309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=199309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=199309"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=199309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}