{"id":199249,"date":"2024-10-24T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-24T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/cybertruck-tries-to-pull-the-whole-market-higher\/"},"modified":"2024-10-25T14:08:01","modified_gmt":"2024-10-25T14:08:01","slug":"cybertruck-tries-to-pull-the-whole-market-higher","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/cybertruck-tries-to-pull-the-whole-market-higher\/","title":{"rendered":"Cybertruck Tries to Pull the Whole Market Higher"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

One of the key points that we made in yesterday\u2019s piece<\/a> about pre-earnings expectations for Tesla (TSLA) was that its implied volatility seemed a bit low considering the stock\u2019s propensity for big post-earnings moves.  And now we\u2019re looking at a 17% rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specifically, we noted<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interestingly, at money weekly options are pricing in a roughly 7.5% post earnings move.  That seems low, considering that the past seven TSLA earnings reports resulted in either double digit percentage moves or something just shy (-12.33%, +12.06%, -12.13%, -9.3%, -9.74%, -9.75%, +10.97%).  It is also sobering to note that only one of the last six, and two of the last seven reports have resulted in upward moves.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Options pricing can often be a contrarian indicator.  If everyone is nervous, then the result can be benign, and vice versa.  Today\u2019s setup into TSLA earnings somehow simultaneously shows a bit of concern (probability, skews) and a relative lack thereof (at-money volatility).  We\u2019ll learn who is correct soon enough.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The quarter was widely reported as a blowout, and understandably so.  EPS of $0.72 handily beat the $0.60 consensus, helped by an improvement in margins and the news that the cybertruck is now turning a profit.  But the key was a forecast that sales could grow by 30% next year.  As we noted last week<\/a>, guidance, not current EPS, is the key to earnings season.  TSLA hasn\u2019t had a great track record of beating consensus recently \u2013 it missed in each of the prior four quarters \u2013 but it rose 12% after missing in Q1.  It is hard to imagine today\u2019s reaction would have been as dramatic if they simply beat on EPS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet even though TSLA\u2019s monstrous rally is a boon for its stockholders — it is now up for the year-to-date \u2013 it is not spreading into the broader market.  When you have one of the top companies by market capitalization moving that much higher (as of yesterday, TSLA was #11 in SPX and #8 in NDX), it has both mathematical and psychological benefits for traders and the indices they follow.  For better or worse, though, TSLA may simply be too idiosyncratic to be the unquestioned market leader that it once was.  We\u2019ve seen Nvidia (NVDA) push past TSLA in both activity and mindshare.  NVDA is the prime mover in the sector that has captured the market\u2019s zeitgeist \u2013 artificial intelligence, of course \u2013  but while Elon Musk is an inescapable presence in all sorts of news, TSLA no longer has the overall market oomph that it once possessed<\/a>.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here’s the telling fact: pre-market ES futures were up over \u00bd% on TSLA enthusiasm, but the S&P 500 (SPX) is now flat at midday.\u00a0 It simply wasn\u2019t enough to carry over completely.\u00a0 But it seems that there is more.\u00a0 Considering yesterday\u2019s tech selloff that pushed the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) down by -1.55% and the prior 3-day dip in SPX, the reaction this morning is rather muted.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even more curious, the lackluster equity market comes despite Treasury yields improving by 4-5 basis points.  Yesterday\u2019s tech selling seemed to be a delayed reaction to the recent jump in yields.  Tech held firm as rates rose sharply on Monday and Tuesday, but succumbed yesterday.  To put the bond move in perspective, 2-Year yields rose by 13bp and 10-Years by 16bp from Friday through yesterday.  That\u2019s a huge move in a short period of time.  Perhaps tech is slow to notice the lower yields today?  Or perhaps stocks are following my one of my mantras: \u201cif you can\u2019t price safe assets [like 2-year notes], it\u2019s really hard to have confidence while pricing risky assets [like stocks].\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One of the key points that we made in yesterday\u2019s piece about pre-earnings expectations for Tesla (TSLA) was that its implied volatility seemed a bit low considering the stock\u2019s propensity for big post-earnings moves.\u00a0 And now we\u2019re looking at a 17% 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