{"id":198797,"date":"2024-10-14T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-14T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/weekly-market-recap-october-14-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-10-15T09:21:47","modified_gmt":"2024-10-15T09:21:47","slug":"weekly-market-recap-october-14-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-october-14-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: October 14, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>0.2% m\/m (2.4% y\/y)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Initial jobless claims jumped to 258K<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PPIs came in softer than expected at 0.0% m\/m (1.8% y\/y)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Retail sales<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Housing starts<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In late September, Israel launched an offensive into Lebanon against the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah. In response, Iran fired 200 ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv. Israel has vowed to retaliate. Along with devastating humanitarian consequences, further escalation could spike oil prices. While a sustained geopolitical premium does seem warranted, the impact on the crude market may be muted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, analysts believe Israel will target Iran\u2019s missile rather than energy facilities. After all, the U.S. is far more interested in disrupting Iran\u2019s military capabilities than global oil markets, especially ahead of an election. But should Iranian production take a hit, the market still appears well positioned to absorb the shock. While conflicts like the Iranian Revolution in 1978 caused crippling supply disruptions, the region\u2019s share of the market has declined significantly. Around 65% of supply now comes from non-OPEC countries, and the U.S. is the world\u2019s largest producer of oil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, as this week\u2019s chart shows, OPEC itself has excess production capacity of about 5 million barrels, or 6% of current supply. Member nations are planning on reviving 2.2mbd of capacity over the course of 2025 and would likely ramp up sooner should prices spike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the fog of war is clouding the future, modern-day oil markets are resilient. Prices fell back quickly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and then again after Hamas\u2019s initial attack on Israel. Nevertheless, geopolitical risk is highly elevated. Those who wish to hedge should consider investments with exposure to areas like the defense sector or global transport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"998\" height=\"406\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/Screenshot-2024-10-14-110856.png\" alt=\"Global Oil Production Chart of the Week\" class=\"wp-image-198798 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/10\/Screenshot-2024-10-14-110856.png 998w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/10\/Screenshot-2024-10-14-110856-700x285.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/10\/Screenshot-2024-10-14-110856-300x122.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/10\/Screenshot-2024-10-14-110856-768x312.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 998px) 100vw, 998px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 998px; aspect-ratio: 998\/406;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart of the Week: Bloomberg, EIA, J.P. Morgan Asset Managment.<br>Crude oil includes lease condensate. *Data begins in July 1999. Data<br>are as of June 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results. <\/strong><br>Thought of the week: EIA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted October 14, 2024 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2024 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., October 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of October 14, 2024 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While the fog of war is clouding the future, modern-day oil markets are resilient.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[429],"class_list":{"0":"post-198797","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: October 14, 2024 | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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