{"id":198145,"date":"2024-09-30T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/rotation-was-the-key-this-quarter\/"},"modified":"2024-10-01T10:59:07","modified_gmt":"2024-10-01T10:59:07","slug":"rotation-was-the-key-this-quarter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/rotation-was-the-key-this-quarter\/","title":{"rendered":"Rotation Was the Key This Quarter"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Today, with the latest inexorable turn of the calendar, the third quarter of 2024 comes to an end.&nbsp; It\u2019s already over in Asia, where it was a wild one, and Europe is coming to a close as I write this.&nbsp; While there were some hiccups in global markets this quarter \u2013 August 5<sup>th<\/sup> should come to mind \u2013 this was another positive quarter for most equity indices, with rotation being a key theme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Indeed \u201crotation\u201d was a key buzzword for large portions of the past few months, and it becomes apparent that wide swaths of the global equity markets benefitted.&nbsp; Rotation, of course, implies divergent relative performances.&nbsp; If money is flowing into one sector or country into another, then by definition, it must either be flowing out of another or flowing in more slowly.&nbsp; For the quarter that is coming to an end, the latter was the case.&nbsp; Money still flowed into most equity markets, but the allocation was different than what prevailed for most of the prior quarters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Exhibit A is the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), which is up about +1.5% for the quarter as I write this (late morning, EDT).&nbsp; The large-cap technology stocks that dominate that index have been stellar performers for quite some time.&nbsp; For comparison, NDX is up over +18% year-to-date.&nbsp; Not too shabby.&nbsp; But when we compare it to other US benchmarks, it is clear that many investors\u2019 focus has moved elsewhere.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was up about 5% this quarter, and 20% ytd, solidly outperforming NDX, which it had lagged for months.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile the equal-weighed calculation of SPX, SPW, is up nearly 9% this quarter, compared with just over 13% ytd.&nbsp; It is quite clear that the \u201cother 493\u201d did more than their share to push the US market higher.&nbsp; It is also obvious that the third quarter contributed mightily to that index\u2019 performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P Midcap Index (MID) also fared well, rising about 6.5% this quarter, versus 12% ytd, while the Russell 2000 owes almost all its year-to-date performance to the third quarter, when it rose about 8.5%, versus nearly 10% ytd.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Clearly, what we saw in the US was a very healthy rotation, since huge, less-loved swaths of the equity market benefitted disproportionately, but not at the expense of the prior winners.&nbsp;&nbsp; They did OK, just less so than the others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>European markets were up across the board.&nbsp; The Euro Stoxx 50 (ESTX50) was up 2.17%.&nbsp; The FTSE 100 was the laggard, up 0.89% for the quarter, while Spain\u2019s IBEX 35 was the leader, up 8.53% for the period.&nbsp; Most were in the 2-3% range for the quarter, giving most of them 9-15% gains for the year so far.&nbsp; France\u2019s CAC 40 is the biggest laggard on that basis, eking out 1.23% for the year thanks to this quarter\u2019s 2.09% gain.&nbsp; It\u2019s another reminder that elections have consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But if you wanted action, Asia was the place to be.&nbsp; The Nikkei 225 snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, with this morning\u2019s -4.8% drop, pushing the quarter\u2019s return to -4.2%.&nbsp; (The plunge was caused by a change in ruling party leadership.)&nbsp;&nbsp; Even so, it\u2019s still up 13.31% for the year.&nbsp; Remember, this was a quarter that saw the Nikkei plunge in early August, thanks to the messy unwind of the \u201ccarry trade\u201d after the Bank of Japan raised rates more than expected.&nbsp; Some might consider a modest loss to be OK after the volatility.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, if you\u2019re looking for fireworks, China is the place.&nbsp; On Friday, we noted that country\u2019s remarkable response to a blast of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures.&nbsp; The CSI 300 built upon last week\u2019s 15.28% rally with another 8.48% today.&nbsp; That means that almost all of the quarter\u2019s 15.52% gain, and the year\u2019s 17.1% gain occurred in the past five sessions.&nbsp; Something similar can be said about Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng Index, which rose 15.82% in the past week, pushing the quarter\u2019s jump to 19.27% and 23.97% ytd.&nbsp; Less dramatic, but also 3Q weighted, we saw Australia\u2019s S&amp;P\/ASX 200 rise 6.47% this quarter, the lion\u2019s share of its 8.95% year-to-date rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bottom line, with the exception of Japanese shares, and to a lesser extent, the megacap US tech leaders, investors did quite well this quarter.&nbsp; Vast swaths of global equities did either well, or extraordinarily well.&nbsp; The question for the coming quarter will be whether investors press their bets or take some money off the table after a stellar year.&nbsp; We\u2019ll be revisiting that in the weeks to come.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today, with the latest inexorable turn of the calendar, the third quarter of 2024 comes to an end.  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