{"id":197317,"date":"2024-08-29T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-29T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/nvda-atlas-shrugged-barely\/"},"modified":"2024-08-30T10:43:25","modified_gmt":"2024-08-30T10:43:25","slug":"nvda-atlas-shrugged-barely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/nvda-atlas-shrugged-barely\/","title":{"rendered":"NVDA \u2013 Atlas Shrugged, Barely"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>This morning, we are seeing the latest in a series of relief rallies.\u00a0 The sigh of relief comes from the market\u2019s reaction to yesterday&#8217;s Nvidia (NVDA) earnings.\u00a0 You might be thinking, \u201cwait, NVDA is lower today.\u00a0 How is that relief?\u201d\u00a0 It\u2019s because although the company didn\u2019t meet the most optimistic \u201cwhisper numbers\u201d, they also didn\u2019t say anything that would invalidate investors\u2019 love for megacap tech and all things regarding artificial intelligence.\u00a0 We have been referring to NVDA as \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/nvda-remains-the-markets-atlas\/\">the market\u2019s Atlas<\/a>\u201d; traders are relieved that Atlas barely shrugged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As I type this, the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is once again flirting with all-time highs, though the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) remains about 5% below the high it made about six weeks ago.\u00a0 We can thank the broadening rally for the outperformance of SPX over the past few weeks.\u00a0 While investors continue to show affection for the megacap tech darlings, they are no longer the only game in town.\u00a0 While both NDX and SPX are both <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/so-top-heavy\/\">top-heavy with tech<\/a>, the relative weighting of non-tech is far higher in SPX, allowing it to outperform recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(That said, this thought literally just occurred to me while I was typing:\u00a0 SPX put in a major top on the first trading day of 2022, right after the long New Years\u2019 weekend.\u00a0 NDX had peaked six weeks earlier and was trading about 5% off its highs at the time. \u00a0A generally ugly year followed. \u00a0With the long weekend ahead, and a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/some-quick-post-powell-pontification\/\">seasonally tricky month<\/a> beginning thereafter, that\u2019s just a coincidence, right?)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Whether or not NVDA\u2019s results failed to meet the loftiest of expectations, they continued to tell a positive story for the company and the AI-investing theme.&nbsp; Their key customers continue to buy NVDA chips, and the company expects to ramp up production of its delayed Blackwell chip in the fourth quarter.&nbsp; They wouldn\u2019t be ramping up if they didn\u2019t foresee demand.&nbsp; Thus, after a modestly risk-averse day yesterday, tech investors got an \u201call clear\u201d to resume their fondness for the sector.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even though the worst appears to be behind us, it was indeed sensible for markets to concern themselves with the risks that could have materialized.\u00a0 If NVDA offered any signs that demand was slowing, that its key customers were slowing their purchases of AI-related chips to focus more on making AI a contributor to their own profits and less on building new capacity, the ramifications <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/nvda-remains-the-markets-atlas\/\">could have been enormous<\/a>.\u00a0 Just because a reasonable risk was averted does not invalidate the concern.\u00a0 Look for it to crop up again \u2013 and with good reason \u2013 three months from now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ve been generally positive about the results, and of course with good reason.&nbsp; But there are a couple of nitpicky items.&nbsp; First, although we noted that NVDA beat expectations, the magnitude of the earnings beats has been shrinking.&nbsp; Last year at this time, NVDA\u2019s EPS beat consensus by 31.07%.&nbsp; The level of \u201cbeat\u201d has declined since then to 19.64%, 11.69% and 8.51% ahead of yesterday\u2019s 5.43%.&nbsp; None of that is bad, but it shows how expectations have been catching up to the company.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also of note, Super Micro Computer was mentioned only once in passing on the earnings call.&nbsp; Normally, that wouldn\u2019t be a big deal \u2013 a CEO doesn\u2019t give shoutouts to all his best customers.&nbsp; But when a company\u2019s third-biggest customer <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/livecoverage\/nvidia-earnings-stock-market-today-08-28-2024\/card\/heard-on-the-street-super-micro-s-ai-boom-gets-more-scrutiny-VdEfSnm68Rg3ORUxiLQT\">delays its 10-K<\/a>, that may merit some concern.&nbsp; None was shown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, the situation remains generally great for NVDA and the investing thesis for the companies in its orbit.&nbsp; But it doesn\u2019t mean that vigilance is unwarranted.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This morning, we are seeing the latest in a series of relief rallies.  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