{"id":197289,"date":"2024-08-28T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-28T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/options-market-expectations-for-nvda-earnings\/"},"modified":"2024-08-29T09:11:18","modified_gmt":"2024-08-29T09:11:18","slug":"options-market-expectations-for-nvda-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/options-market-expectations-for-nvda-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"Options Market Expectations for NVDA Earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The long-awaited day is upon us.&nbsp; After much ink (more likely, pixels) has been spilled on the topic of Nvidia (<span class=\"stock-ticker\" data-stock-ticker=\"NVDA\">NVDA<\/span>) earnings, we will finally learn the results after today\u2019s close.&nbsp; It bothers me to think that one company\u2019s results are perceived as being consequential for the equity market\u2019s performance on the whole, but in this case it is not an exaggeration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/nvda-remains-the-markets-atlas\/\">In yesterday\u2019s piece<\/a>, we outlined the ways that NVDA influences a wide range of other key stocks and sectors beyond semiconductors.\u00a0 We won\u2019t belabor them again today \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/nvda-remains-the-markets-atlas\/\">read this linked article instead<\/a> \u2013 but suffice to say that when artificial intelligence remains the dominant market theme and the other six Magnificent Seven stocks are among its largest customers, we feel comfortable continuing to assert that NVDA is the market\u2019s Atlas, hoisting whole indices upon its broad shoulders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The question before us is not whether NVDA will report good results.&nbsp; Even a subpar quarter from NVDA would be considered amazing for almost any other company.&nbsp; We\u2019ve gotten spoiled by their unprecedented ability to beat on the top and bottom lines, raise guidance, then do it all again next quarter.&nbsp; The question before us is less about whether they will meet expectations but instead how much they will raise guidance going forward, and whether there is a \u201cwhisper number\u201d that exceeds even the published expectations.&nbsp; The recent rally increases the likelihood of heightened expectations being priced in.&nbsp; Below is a helpful \u201ccheat sheet\u201d for interpreting this afternoon\u2019s results (though it is impossible to quantify the potential impact of comments about the new Blackwell chip) :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"499\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-197290 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/08\/Picture4.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/08\/Picture4-700x373.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/08\/Picture4-300x160.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/08\/Picture4-768x409.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/499;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, what might the options market be telling us about the potential post-earnings moves for NVDA?&nbsp; Bearing in mind that the last four of the last six post-earnings moves have exceeded 9% (+9.32%, +16.4%, -2.46%, +0.1%, +24.37%, 14.02%), it is hardly unreasonable to see that at-money options expiring this week are currently pricing in over 10% daily moves between now and Friday:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>NVDA Skews for Options Expiring August 30<sup>th<\/sup> (green), September 6<sup>th<\/sup> (blue), September 20<sup>th<\/sup> (yellow)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"564\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture3-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-197291 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/08\/Picture3-1.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/08\/Picture3-1-700x422.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/08\/Picture3-1-300x181.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/08\/Picture3-1-768x463.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/564;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unlike before previous quarters, when skews were essentially flat, we do see a bit of a downside bias for options roughly +\/- 20% from current levels.&nbsp; The skew steepens dramatically below $100, but that might be the result of NVDA\u2019s recent flirtation with that key level:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>NVDA Skews for Options Expiring August 30<sup>th<\/sup> (green), September 6<sup>th<\/sup> (blue), September 20<sup>th<\/sup> (yellow)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"422\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture2-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-197292 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/08\/Picture2-2.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/08\/Picture2-2-700x316.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/08\/Picture2-2-300x135.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/08\/Picture2-2-768x346.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/422;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The IBKR Probability Lab also shows some modest risk aversion, with a peak outcome shown around $117.50, about 4.5% below current levels:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"398\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/Picture1-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-197293 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/08\/Picture1-3.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/08\/Picture1-3-700x298.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/08\/Picture1-3-300x128.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/08\/Picture1-3-768x327.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/398;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both NVDA and broad indices and have sold off a bit since I started writing this piece.&nbsp; It is not unreasonable to think that at least some of that reflects a bit of concern ahead of today\u2019s earnings report.&nbsp; Paradoxically, the more we sell off today, that might be a good thing for tomorrow.&nbsp; It is not necessarily a bad thing when people show some healthy risk aversion ahead of a potentially market-moving event \u2013 they\u2019re less likely to get blindsided.&nbsp; Frankly, it\u2019s a lot scarier when people are truly sanguine. That said, there was a considerable amount of good news priced in when the stock rallied from $100 to $125 in just three weeks.&nbsp; We\u2019ll find out soon enough whether that was appropriate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The long-awaited day is upon us.  After much ink (more likely, pixels) has been spilled on the topic of Nvidia (NVDA) earnings, we will finally learn the results after today\u2019s close.  It bothers me to think that one company\u2019s results are perceived as being consequential for the equity market\u2019s performance on the whole, but in this case it is not an exaggeration.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":11220,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,147,18,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-197289","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Options Market 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