{"id":196473,"date":"2024-07-31T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-31T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/uncategorized\/poised-for-a-very-good-start\/"},"modified":"2024-08-01T09:30:07","modified_gmt":"2024-08-01T09:30:07","slug":"poised-for-a-very-good-start","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/poised-for-a-very-good-start\/","title":{"rendered":"Poised for a very good start"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Microsoft (MSFT)<\/strong>&nbsp;reported its quarterly results after yesterday&#8217;s close and its stock promptly declined more than 6.0%, reportedly because Azure growth was not quite as high as expected. To say the least, one had the sense that it was not going to be a good start for the stock market today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The latter view, however, has been negated. It will be a very good start for the broader market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Currently, the S&amp;P 500 futures are up 69 points and are trading 1.3% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 410 points and are trading 2.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 88 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The good start isn&#8217;t because Microsoft turned positive, although it has worked its way back. It is now indicated just 1.7% lower in pre-market trading. The good start has a lot to do with the semiconductor stocks and&nbsp;<strong>NVIDIA (NVDA)<\/strong>&nbsp;in particular.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NVIDIA is up 7.1% in pre-market trading, drafting off the reassuring earnings report and outlook from&nbsp;<strong>Adv. Micro Devices (AMD)<\/strong>&nbsp;and a&nbsp;<em>Reuters<\/em>&nbsp;report that the foreign chip equipment export rule will have key exemptions for allies.&nbsp;<strong>ASML (ASML)<\/strong>&nbsp;for its part is up 7.8% on that report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In any case, the strong rebound action in the semiconductor stocks, and a further drop in Treasury yields, have been influential sources of support for market sentiment, which has had a ton of news infusion since yesterday&#8217;s close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some of those headlines include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Bank of Japan raised its uncollateralized overnight call rate to &#8220;around 0.25%&#8221; from around 0.0-0.1%, and announced a plan to reduce the JGB purchase amount by about 400 bln yen each calendar quarter\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USD\/JPY -1.6% to 150.25<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Earnings results from\u00a0<strong>Boeing (BA), Starbucks (SBUX), DuPont (DD), Mondelez Intl. (MDLZ), Humana (HUM), Mastercard (MA)<\/strong>, and\u00a0<strong>Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The political leader of Hamas was killed in Iran and Iran is alleging that Israel is responsible for the strike, according to\u00a0<em>The Wall Street Journal<\/em>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Brent crude futures are up 3.0% to $80.44\/bbl and WTI crude futures are up 3.5% to $77.37\/bbl<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Boeing (BA)<\/strong>\u00a0appointed Kelly Ortberg, former CEO of Rockwell Collins, as President and CEO, effective August 8<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The July ADP Employment Change Report showed 122,000 jobs were added to private-sector payrolls (Briefing.com consensus 160,000) following an upwardly revised 155,000 (from 150,000) in June. The 4.8% year-over-year gain for job-stayers was the slowest pace of growth in three years.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The key takeaway from the report is that it connotes a slowdown in private-sector hiring and pay, which is the right mix for furthering the market&#8217;s belief that the Fed will cut rates in September<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The second quarter Employment Cost Index showed compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 1.0%), seasonally adjusted, for the three-month period ending in June 2024 versus 1.2% for the three-month period ending in March 2024.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The key takeaway is that there was a year-over-year moderation in wages and salaries and benefit costs that, again, trended in the right manner to suggest the Fed might be convinced to cut rates in September.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>China&#8217;s official Manufacturing PMI for July checked in at 49.4, as expected, but remained below the expansion\/contraction demarcation point of 50.0. The Non-Manufacturing PMI for July was 50.2.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The eurozone&#8217;s flash CPI for July accelerated to 2.6% year-over-year from 2.5% while core CPI remained at 2.9%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Treasury Department announced a quarterly refunding plan that showed no changes in the 2-yr, 3-yr, 5-yr, 7-yr note, 10-yr note, and 30-yr bond auction sizes for the August to October quarter; moreover, it believes it will not need to increase nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We haven&#8217;t even talked about the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. That two-day meeting concludes today. A new policy directive will be issued at 2:00 p.m. ET and Fed Chair Powell will hold his press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The FOMC is expected to leave the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Market participants, however, are widely expecting the directive and\/or Fed Chair Powell to lay the groundwork for a rate cut in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Failing to do so would be deemed a disappointment and would presumably trigger some post-FOMC selling in front of the&nbsp;<strong>Meta Platforms (META)<\/strong>&nbsp;earnings report after today&#8217;s close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Did we mention that there has been a ton of news to digest? Frankly, we haven&#8217;t covered it all, but for now, the stock market and the Treasury market have things covered with a positive orientation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.34% and the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.11%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted July 31, 2024 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/page-one\">Poised for a very good start<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Microsoft (MSFT) reported its quarterly results after yesterday&#8217;s close and its stock promptly declined more than 6.0%, reportedly because Azure growth was not quite as high as expected. To say the least, one had the sense that it was not going to be a good start for the stock market today.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[146,147,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[412],"class_list":["post-196473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-briefing-com"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Poised for a very good start | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Microsoft (MSFT) reported its quarterly results after yesterday&#039;s close and its stock promptly declined more than 6.0%, reportedly because Azure growth...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196473\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Poised for a very good start\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Microsoft (MSFT) reported its quarterly results after yesterday&#039;s close and its stock promptly declined more than 6.0%, reportedly because Azure growth was not quite as high as expected. 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