{"id":195998,"date":"2024-07-16T14:10:36","date_gmt":"2024-07-16T14:10:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/?p=195998"},"modified":"2024-07-18T09:38:54","modified_gmt":"2024-07-18T09:38:54","slug":"talking-gold-july-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/talking-gold-july-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Talking Gold \u2014 July 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Originally Posted, 12 July 2024 – Talking Gold<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Market Recap<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Gold finished a choppy month with a modest 0.42% decline, rebounding from slightly larger losses earlier in the month as softening economic data renewed rate cut hopes.1<\/sup> Specifically, on the last trading day of the month, the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, advanced at the slowest pace since March 2021.2<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

With softening economic data, implied fed funds forecasts signal the first rate cut may now be in November. The increased probability of at least one rate cut this year has helped gold maintain technical support above US$2,300\/oz. And despite the slight loss in June, the yellow metal continues to exude positive cross-over momentum. The gold spot price once again closed above its crucial 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and the 50-day ended the month well above the 100- and 200-day moving averages.3<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the quarter, the price of gold rose 5.26%. Gold is now up double digits (+12%) through the first half of the year, its best first half since 2020 when pandemic-related volatility sent prices higher.4<\/sup> Excluding that anomalous period, this is gold\u2019s best first half since 2016. 2024\u2019s double-digit gains add to the counterintuitive 35% surge in the spot price since the first rate hike this cycle on March 15, 2021.5<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This resilience in price action supports our view that gold has been able to weather macro headwinds from rates and the US dollar. Secular influences also underpin the rally, including fiscal imbalances, sustained demand from central banks, and overseas investor demand (e.g., China) for perceived safe-haven assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Performance Drivers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Flows:<\/strong> In June, global gold ETF holdings increased by 0.29%, an estimated 7 metric tons(t).6<\/sup> This was the first positive month of inflows since June 2023, according to Bloomberg data.4<\/sup> Net speculative positioning in COMEX gold futures increased to 158,202 contracts in June, which is significantly higher than the 3-year average of 70,022 contracts.7<\/sup> The recent extension of long contracts highlights that money managers remain bullish on gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Factors:<\/strong> Gold has been range bound since crossing US$2,300\/oz for the first time in April. The yellow metal\u2019s 14-day RSI is near 50, indicating that gold is in neither overbought nor oversold territory.8<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fundamentals: <\/strong>According to the World Gold Council 2024 Central Bank Gold Reserves (CBGR) Survey, which was conducted between February 19, 2024 to April 30, 2024 with a total of 70 responses, 29% of central banks respondents intend to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level observed since the survey began in 2018.9<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Golds<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Gold Price Trends
<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Trailing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Gold ETF Flows<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Gold<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Gold Futures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Gold<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Footnotes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

1<\/sup> Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors, as of June 30, 2024. Note: Gold is represented by LBMA Gold Price PM (US$\/oz).
2<\/sup> Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors, as of June 30, 2024.
3<\/sup> Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors, as of June 30, 2024.
4<\/sup> Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors, as of June 30, 2024.
5<\/sup> Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors, as of June 30, 2024.
6<\/sup> Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors, as of June 30, 2024.
7<\/sup> Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors, as of June 30, 2024.
8<\/sup> Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Global Advisors, as of June 30, 2024.
9<\/sup> World Gold Council, Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey, as of June 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Important Risk Information<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This communication is not intended to be an investment recommendation or investment advice and should not be relied upon as such.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The views expressed in this material are the views of the SPDR Gold Strategy Team through the period ended June 30, 2024, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor\u2019s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your tax and financial advisor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The trademarks and service marks referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Third party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and have no liability for damages of any kind relating to the use of such data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without SSGA\u2019s express written consent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Commodities and commodity-index linked securities may be affected by changes in overall market movements, changes in interest rates, and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes, or political and regulatory developments, as well as trading activity of speculators and arbitrageurs in the underlying commodities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investing in commodities entails significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gold finished a choppy month with a modest 0.42% decline, rebounding from slightly larger losses earlier in the month as softening economic data renewed rate cut hopes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[144,335,16,12,153,148,7],"tags":[222,829,291],"contributors-categories":[462],"class_list":{"0":"post-195998","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-commodities","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-futures","9":"category-securities","10":"category-stocks","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-gold","14":"tag-gold-prices","15":"tag-macro","16":"contributors-categories-state-street-global-advisors"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTalking Gold 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