{"id":195301,"date":"2024-06-21T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-21T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/uncategorized\/the-costco-economy\/"},"modified":"2024-06-24T08:55:33","modified_gmt":"2024-06-24T08:55:33","slug":"the-costco-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/the-costco-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"The Costco Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Both Costco and Ross Stores are experiencing increased foot traffic and higher sales of previously less popular products, indicating a strong and resilient U.S. consumer.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The shift in consumer behavior toward buying more discretionary items is attributed to the deceleration of inflation, according to Costco management.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Constellation Brands, including its Modelo beer brand, is also not seeing any issues with the U.S. consumer and is investing in capacity to meet the demand.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earnings season never really ends. It is a slow, steady drip of useful\u2014sometimes conflicting\u2014data. But listening closely can be powerful for uncovering both positive and negative trends. For example, American Airlines signaling a weaker-than-expected summer should be taken with a grain of Boeing. Norwegian Cruise Lines is not seeing a problem with its travelers. Not every headline should be taken as a sign. It takes a bit of digging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When it comes to top-notch operators, Costco is up there with the best of them. The company has a rather wide view of the consumer. From food to furniture, Costco sells it. What did it have to say about the health of the consumer?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"659\" height=\"242\" data-src=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-195302 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-1.jpg 659w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-1-300x110.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 659px) 100vw, 659px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 659px; aspect-ratio: 659\/242;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Costco.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For Costco, there is little to no worry about the health of the consumer. The retailer\u2019s envied foot traffic? Strong. The categories that have been weak in the post-pandemic period? Those were the leading categories for Costco. That does not align with the narrative of a slowing, struggling consumer. And it should not be readily dismissed, either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Partly, the shift in consumer behavior\u2014according to Costco management\u2014is due to the deceleration of inflation. With less inflation pressure came a shift in consumer behavior back toward buying more of other categories. While specific to the experience of Costco, the data points should not be dismissed. Not only is the U.S. consumer alive and well, it is buying the more discretionary stuff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"252\" data-src=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-2-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-195303 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-2-1.jpg 720w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-2-1-700x245.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-2-1-300x105.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 720px; aspect-ratio: 720\/252;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Costco.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But surely this is a Costco-specific phenomenon? No, it is not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"658\" height=\"275\" data-src=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-3-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-195304 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-3-1.jpg 658w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-3-1-300x125.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 658px) 100vw, 658px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 658px; aspect-ratio: 658\/275;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Ross Stores.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ross Stores called out better foot traffic as well. And it sold more \u201csharply priced\u201d products\u2014that is code for \u201cexpensive.\u201d The consumer is shopping more (foot traffic) and buying stuff that was shunned for the past several quarters. That is a meaningful pushback to the narrative of a potentially problematic U.S. consumer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then, there is commentary from Constellation Brands. Its Modelo beer brand is the #1 brand in the U.S., and the commentary around the outlook was similar to Costco\u2019s. The consumer? No issues there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"664\" height=\"150\" data-src=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-4-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-195305 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-4-1.jpg 664w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-4-1-300x68.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 664px) 100vw, 664px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 664px; aspect-ratio: 664\/150;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Constellation Brands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are certainly headwinds, though. The rise of GLP-1s could be an issue for beer consumption. After the meteoric success of weight loss drugs, many of the staples companies were viewed as at risk. But that might be overplayed for the beer category.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"648\" height=\"396\" data-src=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-5-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-195306 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-5-1.jpg 648w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-5-1-300x183.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 648px) 100vw, 648px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 648px; aspect-ratio: 648\/396;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Constellation Brands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In fact, Modelo and Constellation\u2019s broader beer business has been so successful that it is playing catch-up with its capital expenditures. Where is that capital being invested? Mexico. Again, that is more signal than noise. And it is being done in size. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"666\" height=\"194\" data-src=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-6-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-195307 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-6-1.jpg 666w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/06\/figure-6-1-300x87.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 666px) 100vw, 666px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 666px; aspect-ratio: 666\/194;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Constellation Brands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why does any of this matter? Because it is the reality of the economy, not a sentiment about the direction. Costco is seeing prices \u201clevel off\u201d and the consumer begin to shift spending habits. Both Costco and Ross Stores are seeing foot traffic increase. Constellation is not seeing a consumer slowdown and is investing in capacity to keep up with the demand. None of that is a \u201cmaybe.\u201d All of that is the reality of the U.S. consumer. Yes, the consumer sentiment numbers have been horrid. But what the surveys say and what the consumer is doing are two wildly different things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Welcome to the Costco Economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted June 14, 2024 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wisdomtree.com\/investments\/blog\/2024\/06\/14\/the-costco-economy\">The Costco Economy<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Earnings season never really ends, and listening closely can be powerful for uncovering both positive and negative trends. Samuel Rines exhibits a positive outlook for the U.S. consumer based on the performance of companies like Costco, Ross Stores and Constellation Brands.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1408,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[147,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[2003],"contributors-categories":[457],"class_list":["post-195301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-costco","contributors-categories-wisdomtree-u-s"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Costco Economy | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Earnings season never really ends, and listening closely can be powerful for uncovering both positive and negative trends. 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