{"id":194613,"date":"2024-06-04T03:26:17","date_gmt":"2024-06-04T07:26:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/uncategorized\/chart-advisor-tracking-utilities-new-highs\/"},"modified":"2024-06-05T09:11:18","modified_gmt":"2024-06-05T09:11:18","slug":"chart-advisor-tracking-utilities-new-highs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-tracking-utilities-new-highs\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Tracking Utilities New Highs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Shane Murphy, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Zooming Out, Utilities<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ US Interest Rates<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Small-Caps Trending<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ \/ Zooming Out, Utilities<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We begin by reviewing the monthly total-return chart of the S&P 500 Utilities sector. The trend is repairing itself after breaking below a decade long uptrend line last year. For assets purchased for their income or yield such as bond funds or Utilities stocks, we can derive a lot of information from total return or dividend adjusted<\/a> data. For example, last week the Utilities total return chart reached new monthly closing highs, the price index did not. In fact, the price index is still trading well below its 2022 highs. So, what does this mean? Investors who first bought or owned the sector through 2023\u2019s drawdown of ~30%, have been made whole thanks to Mr. Dividend. I find it extremely important to involve both price and total return when analyzing assets known for their income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ US Interest Rates<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interest rate movements will drive asset prices. The above chart displays the US 10-year Treasury Note Yield and a simple 3-month rate-of-change indicator. Notice that as rates continued to form new highs in 2022-2023, the rate-of-change indicator did not. We call this a divergence<\/a>, and it\u2019s indicative of a potential trend change and slowing of momentum. The chart also outlines a key level of 3.00-3.25%. If rates do in fact move lower, this technical level will come into play as it\u2019s well-defined and acted as both support and resistance in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Small-Caps Trending<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Small-cap stocks as measured by the Russell 2000 Index are trending for the first time since 2022. The best way to determine if an asset is trending is to evaluate price. However, indicators can assist in both confirmation of trend and determining strength of trend. The above chart includes the Congestion Index set on a weekly timeframe. Congestion Index (CI) is the ratio of the price change to the range change between highest price and the lowest price for a specific period. When CI sustains itself above +20, the asset is uptrending. When CI remains below -20, the asset is downtrending. Not only did Small-caps form new 52-week highs this year, but the CI made a convincing break above +20. US Small-caps have joined the equity rally and are officially trending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About this week’s author<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shane Murphy, CMT<\/strong><\/a> has been a CMT Charterholder since 2022. He is currently a Wealth Management Associate at Michael Roberts Associates, Inc. where he assists in portfolio construction, investment research, and financial planning. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

————————————-<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted on June 3rd, 2024<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We begin by reviewing the monthly total-return chart of the S&P 500 Utilities sector. The trend is repairing itself after breaking below a decade long uptrend line last year. For assets purchased for their income or yield such as bond funds or Utilities stocks, we can derive a lot of information from total return or dividend adjusted data. For example, last week the Utilities total return chart reached new monthly closing highs, the price index did not. In fact, the price index is still trading well below its 2022 highs. So, what does this mean? Investors who first bought or owned the sector through 2023\u2019s drawdown of ~30%, have been made whole thanks to Mr. Dividend. I find it extremely important to involve both price and total return when analyzing assets known for their income.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":194616,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,146,147,8,12,153,22,148,7],"tags":[1884,1885,1330],"contributors-categories":[503],"class_list":{"0":"post-194613","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fixed-income","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-technical-analysis","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"tag-10yr-us-treasury-notes","17":"tag-russell-index","18":"tag-sp-500","19":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart Advisor: Tracking Utilities New Highs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We begin by reviewing the monthly total-return chart of the S&P 500 Utilities sector. 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