{"id":194222,"date":"2024-05-20T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-20T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/uncategorized\/why-did-vix-close-at-long-term-lows-last-week\/"},"modified":"2024-05-21T10:03:33","modified_gmt":"2024-05-21T10:03:33","slug":"why-did-vix-close-at-long-term-lows-last-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/why-did-vix-close-at-long-term-lows-last-week\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Did VIX Close at Long-Term Lows Last Week?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Friday\u2019s close on the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX<\/span>) caught my eye.  It finished the week at 11.99, the first time that VIX closed with an 11 handle since November 2019 \u2013 just before that year\u2019s Thanksgiving holiday.  While US markets are closed for Memorial Day next  Monday[i]<\/a>, I don\u2019t believe that is playing an active role in the suppression of implied volatilities in the marketplace.  Like most other market factors, it\u2019s mostly about supply and demand. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a crucial point about VIX that we would like to stress: It is our contention that VIX is a barometer for institutions\u2019 demand for protection.  I have often stated that \u201cVIX is not a fear gauge, it just plays one on TV.\u201d <\/a> That is not to be dismissive of the media\u2019s reporting on VIX.  It does tend to rise when fears intrude into investors\u2019 psyches, but it is not explicitly constructed to reflect sentiment.  Instead it is designed to reflect the market\u2019s best estimate of anticipated volatility over the coming 30 days.  Since we tend to have asymmetric reactions to market moves \u2013 sharp upward moves can be considered \u201csocially acceptable volatility<\/a>\u201d because investors perceive that markets are supposed<\/em> to go up \u2013 VIX tends to rise when markets get rocky.  That increases the perception that volatility will be elevated over the coming days, but it is more likely that VIX is rising as investors reconsider their risk exposures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we want to see the relative availability of volatility protection, we look to the term structure of VIX futures.\u00a0 When VIX, or most other commodities, are in contango<\/a> \u2013 meaning that the curve slopes upwards from left to right \u2013 it means that the commodity in question has a relatively plentiful short-term supply relative to demand.\u00a0 We see that VIX futures are currently in contango, except for those that cover the period around the upcoming Presidential election.\u00a0\u00a0In the graph below, note how both the levels of VIX futures AND the shapes of the curves have changed in the course of a month:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

VIX Futures Term Structure, Today (yellow), 1-Month Ago (magenta)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"VIX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Remember that one month ago we were nearing the end of a very rocky April, while today we are once again at or near all-time highs on many key indices.  We see that there was slight backwardation in the near-term futures, meaning that demand for volatility protection was outpacing supply in the short-term, even if the absolute level of VIX was well below other selling climaxes.  Now we see a very steep near-term contango, meaning that short-term protection is clearly abundant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why the abundance?  Partly it\u2019s \u201canimal spirits.\u201d  Things feel good, so why hedge?  No one is thinking about umbrellas when clear skies prevail.  The same is true for volatility protection. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that only explains the lack of demand.  It doesn\u2019t explain the abundant supply.  The recent popularity of funds that utilize volatility-selling strategies explains that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A paper published by the Bank for International Settlements<\/a> (BIS) provides a significant amount of data.  They show the relative explosion in money that has flowed into ETFs that utilize covered call selling strategies.   While they\u2019re at it, they puncture the myth that so-called \u201czero-dated\u201d or \u201c0DTE\u201d options have \u201cbroken\u201d VIX<\/a>.  Note the recent explosion in what they term \u201c1MTE\u201d options \u2013 one-month to expiration, the period measured by VIX:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"VIX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: <\/em>Bank for International Settlements<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To me, the key graph is the one on the left, where the blue line (cumulative flows to covered call ETFs) rises sharply as the level of VIX falls.  It\u2019s not prima facie evidence that the call-writing strategies are the single cause of the low VIX readings, but they must play a key role.  If there is plenty of volatility (or anything) for sale, it pressures the price.  Hence the lower-trending VIX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the surface this should not be a major concern.  But look at the track record of low VIX readings.  They are almost inevitably followed by spikes in volatility. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

VIX, Weekly Candles Since 2006<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"VIX,<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Does this mean that panic time is approaching?  In and of itself, no.   But with Nvidia\u2019s (NVDA) earnings approaching this week, where disappointment could upend the market\u2019s mentality about all things AI-related<\/a>, we do seem a bit sanguine.  (The same is the case with that stock\u2019s options.)  People seem greedy rather than fearful.  I think Warren Buffett had something to say about that, no?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[i]<\/a> I hope my Canadian friends are enjoying Victoria Day today<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Friday\u2019s close on the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) caught my eye.\u00a0 It finished the week at 11.99, the first time that VIX closed with an 11 handle since November 2019 \u2013 just before that year\u2019s Thanksgiving holiday.\u00a0 While US markets are closed for Memorial Day next\u00a0Monday, I don\u2019t believe that is playing an active role in the suppression of implied volatilities in the marketplace.\u00a0 Like most other market factors, it\u2019s mostly about supply and demand.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":194226,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[145,147,18,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[1801,359],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-194222","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-cboe-volatility-index-vix","16":"tag-volatility","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy Did VIX Close at Long-Term Lows Last Week?<\/title>\n<meta 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