{"id":193654,"date":"2024-05-10T12:56:49","date_gmt":"2024-05-10T12:56:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/?p=193654"},"modified":"2024-05-10T14:31:54","modified_gmt":"2024-05-10T14:31:54","slug":"aor-update-wage-moderation-allows-fed-patience","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/aor-update-wage-moderation-allows-fed-patience\/","title":{"rendered":"AOR Update: Wage moderation allows Fed patience"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Originally Posted, 7 May 2024 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.franklintempleton.com\/articles\/2024\/clearbridge-investments\/aor-update-wage-moderation-allows-fed-patience\">AOR Update: Wage moderation allows Fed patience<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the recent uptick in inflation fears may take time to abate, ClearBridge Investments believes the improved outlook combined with the recent pullback in U.S. equities represents an opportunity for long-term investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">Key takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Slowing wage growth has helped improve the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard\u2019s Wage Growth indicator to yellow and should allay fears of a wage-price spiral that could lead to further monetary tightening.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The moderation in wage gains has achieved a \u201cGoldilocks\u201d zone supportive of a soft landing, with wages cooling to a level consistent with the Federal Reserve\u2019s (Fed) 2% inflation target yet remaining strong enough to support robust consumer spending.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While the recent uptick in inflation fears may take time to abate, we believe the improved outlook combined with the recent pullback in U.S. equities represents an opportunity for long-term investors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-wage-growth-no-longer-instigating-inflation\">Wage growth no longer instigating inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Renewed fears of sticky inflation pushed 10-year Treasury yields nearly 50 basis points higher and the S&amp;P 500 Index 4.2% lower in April. However, wage data has continued to moderate in 2024 with average hourly earnings dipping to 3.9% in April, the coolest reading since mid-2021 and down substantially from a peak of 5.9% in early 2022. April\u2019s lower reading also brought the three-month annualized rate of change for average hourly earnings to just 2.8%, which suggests wage gains should moderate further in the coming months. With wages slowing to levels consistent with an eventual return to the Fed\u2019s 2% inflation target, policymakers do not appear to be in a rush to reverse course and hike interest rates, despite the recent resurgence of inflation fears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the pace of wage gains moderating, the Wage Growth indicator in the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard has improved to a cautionary\/yellow signal this month, from its previous recessionary\/red reading. There are no other changes on the dashboard this month, and the overall signal remains yellow (Exhibit 1).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Historically, once the Wage Growth indicator has turned red once it has stayed through to a recession. However, an array of data suggests the current economic cycle is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.franklintempleton.com\/articles\/2024\/clearbridge-investments\/the-long-view-a-unique-cycle\">one of the most unique<\/a> in modern history. Critically, the moderation in wage gains has reached a more sustainable pace broadly consistent with the Fed\u2019s 2% inflation target yet is still strong enough to support robust consumer spending. Wages reaching a \u201cGoldilocks\u201d zone that can support spending (and thus the continued economic expansion) without setting off a wage-price spiral which would spur a return to tighter monetary policy is critical because labor income is the primary source of spending for most Americans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-exhibit-1-clearbridge-recession-risk-dashboard\">Exhibit 1: ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"640\" data-src=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/cb-aor-0524-ex1-1100x640.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-193656 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/cb-aor-0524-ex1-1100x640.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/cb-aor-0524-ex1-700x407.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/cb-aor-0524-ex1-300x174.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/cb-aor-0524-ex1-768x447.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/cb-aor-0524-ex1.jpg 1152w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/640;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-source-clearbridge-investments-past-performance-is-not-indicative-of-future-results\"><small>Source: ClearBridge Investments.<\/small> &#8211; Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The massive wage surge in 2021 was a part of the reason the Fed increased the federal funds rate so aggressively. However, the labor market today bears little resemblance to what was seen at that time. Back then, finding workers was one of the most challenging problems facing employers as the economy exited the pandemic. The labor force\u2014those working or looking for work\u2014in early 2021 was about 4.5 million workers smaller than it was pre-pandemic, even as job openings surged. With labor demand (job openings) exceeding labor supply, wages rose to restore balance. Higher incomes spurred workers to enter the labor force over the next three years, and today the labor force is more than 3 million workers larger than at the end of 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-exhibit-2-labor-force-has-recovered-and-then-some\">Exhibit 2: Labor Force Has Recovered&#8230;And Then Some<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"454\" data-src=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/cb-aor-0524-ex2-1100x454.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-193657 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/cb-aor-0524-ex2-1100x454.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/cb-aor-0524-ex2-700x289.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/cb-aor-0524-ex2-300x124.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/cb-aor-0524-ex2-768x317.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/cb-aor-0524-ex2.jpg 1139w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/454;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><small>&nbsp;Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Macrobond. Data last updated on 5\/3\/2024.<\/small> <strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Labor supply also benefited in recent years from the pickup in immigration. While this topic can become politically polarizing, we believe it has important economic ramifications. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently revised its estimates of net immigration higher by 3.3 million individuals over the past two years, representing a large pool of additional potential workers.<sup>1<\/sup>&nbsp;Further, the CBO expects an additional 4.4 million workers to arrive over the next three years relative to prior expectations, which should further add to the pool of potential workers and continue to put downward pressure on wage gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The labor market also changed on the demand side of the equation, helping bring the market into better balance. Job openings swelled in 2021 when workers were hard to find, rising by nearly 5.5 million from pre-pandemic levels. While some of this increase was likely double postings, it coincided with a period of robust hiring with 7.2 million jobs created in 2021 alone. However, the pace of hiring began to slow in 2022 and job openings began to decline. Although there are still 1.8 million more job openings today compared to the end of 2019, the number of job postings has fallen by 3.7 million from peak, a clear sign labor demand is softening but remains robust.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-exhibit-3-softer-demand-better-balance\">Exhibit 3: Softer Demand, Better Balance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"482\" data-src=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/cb-aor-0524-ex3-1100x482.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-193658 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/cb-aor-0524-ex3-1100x482.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/cb-aor-0524-ex3-700x306.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/cb-aor-0524-ex3-300x131.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/cb-aor-0524-ex3-768x336.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/cb-aor-0524-ex3.jpg 1149w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/482;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><small>Job openings data as of March 31, 2024. Sources: FactSet, BLS, St. Louis Fed, NBER.<\/small> &#8211; <strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the labor market coming into better balance and wages falling to a level consistent with the Fed\u2019s 2% inflation target, we believe the central bank can afford to remain patient even in the face of a series of unfavorable inflation releases so far in 2024. While historically uncommon outside of a recession, this rebalancing of the labor market is a welcome development that further boosts the already high likelihood of a soft landing, in our view. While the recent inflation resurgence may take time to abate\u2014shelter inflation should become more favorable over the summer, for example\u2014the improved outlook combined with the recent pullback in U.S. equities represents a potential opportunity for long-term investors. Given the S&amp;P 500 has fallen less than 5% from its all-time high, we understand many investors may want to remain patient, waiting for a larger drawdown to materialize. However, positive inflation developments could spark a rally, meaning investors may want to consider using the recent weakness to build starter positions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.franklintempleton.com\/about-us\/our-teams\/specialist-investment-managers\/clearbridge\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.franklintempleton.com\/about-us\/our-teams\/specialist-investment-managers\/clearbridge\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.franklintempleton.com\/about-us\/our-teams\/specialist-investment-managers\/clearbridge\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.franklintempleton.com\/about-us\/our-teams\/specialist-investment-managers\/clearbridge\"><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.franklintempleton.com\/about-us\/our-teams\/specialist-investment-managers\/clearbridge\"><\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.franklintempleton.com\/about-us\/our-teams\/specialist-investment-managers\/clearbridge\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Endnote<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><small>As of November 15, 2023. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.<\/small><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Definitions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><small>The <strong>ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard<\/strong> is a group of 12 indicators that examine the health of the US economy and the likelihood of a downturn.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><small>The&nbsp;<strong>Federal Reserve Board (Fed)<\/strong>&nbsp;is responsible for the formulation of US policies designed to promote economic growth, full employment, stable prices, and a sustainable pattern of international trade and payments.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><small>The <strong>Congressional Budget Office<\/strong> is a federal agency within the legislative branch of the United States government that provides budget and economic information to Congress.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><small>The&nbsp;<strong>S&amp;P 500 Index<\/strong>&nbsp;is an unmanaged index of 500 stocks that is generally representative of the performance of larger companies in the U.S.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>WHAT ARE THE RISKS?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.&nbsp; Please note that an investor cannot invest directly in an index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Equity<\/strong> securities are subject to price fluctuation and possible loss of principal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Fixed-income<\/strong> securities involve interest rate, credit, inflation and reinvestment risks, and possible loss of principal. As interest rates rise, the value of fixed income securities falls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>International investments<\/strong> are subject to special risks including currency fluctuations, social, economic and political uncertainties, which could increase volatility. These risks are magnified in <strong>emerging markets<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Commodities<\/strong> and <strong>currencies<\/strong> contain heightened risk that include market, political, regulatory, and natural conditions and may not be suitable for all investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>US Treasuries<\/strong> are direct debt obligations issued and backed by the \u201cfull faith and credit\u201d of the US government. The US government guarantees the principal and interest payments on US Treasuries when the securities are held to maturity. Unlike US Treasuries, debt securities issued by the federal agencies and instrumentalities and related investments may or may not be backed by the full faith and credit of the US government. Even when the US government guarantees principal and interest payments on securities, this guarantee does not apply to losses resulting from declines in the market value of these securities.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While the recent uptick in inflation fears may take time to abate, ClearBridge Investments believes the improved outlook combined with the recent pullback in U.S. equities represents an opportunity for long-term investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[146,147,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[420],"class_list":{"0":"post-193654","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-text-articles","9":"category-traders-insight","10":"contributors-categories-franklin-templeton"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>AOR Update: Wage moderation allows Fed patience<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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