{"id":193511,"date":"2024-05-02T15:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-02T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/uncategorized\/some-quick-thoughts-about-the-fomc-and-failed-rallies-2\/"},"modified":"2024-05-03T08:05:32","modified_gmt":"2024-05-03T08:05:32","slug":"some-quick-thoughts-about-the-fomc-and-failed-rallies-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/some-quick-thoughts-about-the-fomc-and-failed-rallies-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Some Quick Thoughts About the FOMC and Failed Rallies"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I\u2019m trying for brevity today, as I have been busy attending this year\u2019s Options Industry Conference as a speaker.&nbsp; It also meant that I couldn\u2019t pay as careful attention as usual to Chair Powell\u2019s speech and the trading that ensued.&nbsp; But there was much that was notable despite the lack of rate movement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I was asked for an instant reaction to the FOMC statement and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-04-30\/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?sref=UQoV8r0O\">came up with this<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Pulling back on QT [quantitative tightening] is the noteworthy aspect, particularly because cutback is strictly on the Treasuries side while agencies and mortgages remain unchanged. A bit of dovishness to balance the acknowledgement of lack of progress on inflation.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A fellow attendee raised the question about whether the reduction in QT was in fact a bit of QE (quantitative easing).&nbsp; I disagreed, because a less restrictive policy does not mean that we have flipped to something accommodative.&nbsp; Yet I found another attendee\u2019s question about whether the reduced QT meant that the Fed could engage in yield curve control to be oddly compelling.&nbsp; It is indeed quite possible, if not likely, that the Fed can be selective about where it reinvests the proceeds of maturing bonds, thus subtly influencing the shape of the yield curve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As I did my best to follow allow with Powell\u2019s press conference, I noticed the usual Goldilocks tone which seemed to mollify nervous traders.&nbsp; But rather than suffice with a modest rally when he acknowledged that hikes were not likely, the 1%+ move seemed excessive.&nbsp; And it was.&nbsp; It was obvious that the usual crop of speculators who seem to chase every decent rally found no one to sell to when they tried to close out their day trades.&nbsp; So down we went.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-05-01\/jerome-powell-offered-markets-a-reprieve-it-vanished-in-a-blink?sref=UQoV8r0O\">I commented<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>I was more puzzled trying to figure out what Powell said to make stocks rally so sharply.&nbsp; Sure, he said no hikes are necessary and downplayed fears about stagflation, but that wasn\u2019t worth a big speculative rally.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The head fake troubles me, and could indicate the changing trading environment that we <a href=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/its-still-an-uptrend-but\/\">referred to recently<\/a>.&nbsp; It may be time to be more assiduous about selling rallies rather than buying dips&nbsp; &#8211; and certainly not chasing rallies on flimsy rationales.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m trying for brevity today, as I have been busy attending this year\u2019s Options Industry Conference as a speaker.  It also meant that I couldn\u2019t pay as careful attention as usual to Chair Powell\u2019s speech and the trading that ensued.  But there was much that was notable despite the lack of rate movement.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":193512,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[311,793,314],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-193511","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-fed","15":"tag-fomc","16":"tag-market-outlook","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Some Quick Thoughts About the FOMC and Failed Rallies<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"I couldn\u2019t pay as careful attention as usual to Chair Powell\u2019s speech and the trading that ensued. 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