{"id":192855,"date":"2024-04-09T08:12:04","date_gmt":"2024-04-09T12:12:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/uncategorized\/chart-advisor-is-march-madness-over\/"},"modified":"2024-04-10T09:10:51","modified_gmt":"2024-04-10T09:10:51","slug":"chart-advisor-is-march-madness-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-is-march-madness-over\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart advisor: Is March Madness Over?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>By<a href=\"https:\/\/cmtassociation.org\/presenter\/gordon-scott\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> Gordon Scott, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1\/ A Broken String of All-Time Highs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2\/ Apple\u2019s Unusual Divergence<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3\/ <strong>Trouble in Houses<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. &nbsp;The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-a-broken-string-of-all-time-highs\"><strong>1\/<\/strong>A Broken String of All-Time Highs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In January of this year, the S&amp;P 500 broke through its 2021 high water mark and posted a new all-time high. Through February and March it made a regular practice of posting new all-time highs each week, though the price action has taken a pause over the past few days. (See chart of S&amp;P 500 ETF, SPY, below).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"626\" data-src=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T1_2-1100x626.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-192862 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T1_2-1100x626.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T1_2-700x398.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T1_2-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T1_2-768x437.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T1_2-1536x874.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T1_2.png 1920w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/626;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most notable in the past two weeks\u2019 price action was the fierce rejection of a buying surge that occurred last Thursday, April 4th. Price hit a deep low for the day only slightly slower than a basketball rejected by Zach Edey in the NCAA championship game last night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since then, the response of buyers has been tepid at best, and it remains to be seen if prices can launch for new highs as earnings begin to roll out later this week with Delta (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/markets\/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=dal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">DAL<\/a>) on Wednesday followed by J.P.Morgan Chase (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/markets\/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=jpm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">JPM<\/a>) and Wells Fargo (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/markets\/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=wfc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">WFC<\/a>) on Friday.&nbsp; Earnings will have to be surprisingly strong to help buyers get past the fact that the Fed may not cut interest rates as much as they want this year. For now it looks like the madness of crowds seen in March is truly over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-apple-s-unusual-divergence\">2\/ <strong>Apple\u2019s Unusual Divergence<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If you had a group of investors in a room trying to persuade each other that stocks were likely to continue bullish for the next few months, they\u2019d likely have to lean right or left to see each other. They\u2019d have to look around the elephant in the room, a.k.a. Apple (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/markets\/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=aapl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AAPL<\/a>).&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This stock represents about 7% of the market cap of the Nasdaq 100, thus it is highly influential on the index. So it is a bit of a marvel that Invesco\u2019s Nasdaq ETF (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/markets\/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=qqq\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">QQQ<\/a>), is able to continue its march higher despite shares of the tech giant taking a divergent path lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"1167\" data-src=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T2_2-1100x1167.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-192858 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T2_2-1100x1167.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T2_2-700x743.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T2_2-300x318.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T2_2-768x815.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T2_2-1448x1536.png 1448w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T2_2.png 1548w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/1167;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the past 20 years, such a divergence has only happened twice. In both cases, after a period of about six months, AAPL shares were positioned at what one could only consider (in hindsight anyway) as the buy of the decade. Until Apple gets a serious stake in the AI future, or some similar major technological advance, it will be difficult to imagine a replay of that pattern, but it could happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile the shares are weighing heavily on the tech index and may make it difficult for investors to see all-time highs during the second quarter of this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-trouble-in-houses\">3\/ <strong>Trouble in Houses<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The following chart shows the share price action of Home Depot (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/markets\/quote?tvwidgetsymbol=hd\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">HD<\/a>) during the past three months, overlaid on a technical indicator called an Anchored VWAP, with bands showing multiples of an Average True Range (ATR) designating a price level of&nbsp; +1, +2, -1 and -2 ATRs above the multi-day VWAP line. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The purpose of this indicator (courtesy of VantagePoint Software) is to reflect institutional buyer\u2019s preferences for the stock by simply showing support or resistance at the various lines shown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"496\" data-src=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T3_2-1100x496.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-192856 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T3_2-1100x496.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T3_2-700x315.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T3_2-300x135.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T3_2-768x346.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T3_2-1536x692.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/04\/T3_2.png 1920w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/496;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This picture gives a pretty clear indication that while this stock has been in high demand among institutional buyers as of late, the tide may have turned over the past two weeks. This is an interesting indication because the homebuilding sector has been strong up until now, and this chart might be the earliest evidence that this is changing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally posted on April 9th, 2024<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In January of this year, the S&amp;P 500 broke through its 2021 high water mark and posted a new all-time high. Through February and March it made a regular practice of posting new all-time highs each week, though the price action has taken a pause over the past few days. (See chart of S&amp;P 500 ETF, SPY, below).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":192858,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[335,146,147,8,12,153,22,148,7],"tags":[1396,333,1397,1398,1399,1400,1146,1401,1063,955,1402,1403,1301,967],"contributors-categories":[503],"class_list":{"0":"post-192855","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-technical-analysis","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"tag-aapl","17":"tag-amzn","18":"tag-chdn","19":"tag-cost","20":"tag-dal","21":"tag-hd","22":"tag-jpm","23":"tag-qqq","24":"tag-spdr","25":"tag-spy","26":"tag-tgt","27":"tag-tsla","28":"tag-wfc","29":"tag-xly","30":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Chart advisor: Is March Madness Over? | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In January of this year, the S&amp;P 500 broke through its 2021 high water mark and posted a new all-time high. 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