{"id":11405,"date":"2024-03-21T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-21T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/uncategorized\/dont-fight-the-fed-or-dont-fight-the-tape\/"},"modified":"2024-03-22T10:02:38","modified_gmt":"2024-03-22T10:02:38","slug":"dont-fight-the-fed-or-dont-fight-the-tape","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/dont-fight-the-fed-or-dont-fight-the-tape\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Don&#8217;t Fight the Fed&#8221; or &#8220;Don&#8217;t Fight the Tape&#8221;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Many market veterans favor one of two mantras: \u201cdon\u2019t fight the Fed,\u201d and \u201cdon\u2019t fight the tape.\u201d\u00a0 Like many time-tested market adages, there is a valuable element of truth in both.\u00a0 The former tends to be more relevant for investors, the latter for traders.\u00a0 But it is clear that \u201cdon\u2019t fight the tape\u201d is dominating decision-making for both.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When the FOMC released its latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcprojtabl20240320.htm\">Summary of Economic Projections<\/a>, it showed a \u201cdot plot\u201d that continued to show a median estimate of three rate cuts in 2024 even as their GDP estimate rose to 2.1% from 1.4%.&nbsp; More economic growth AND the continued prospect of rate cuts.&nbsp; Why not be enthusiastic about that?&nbsp;&nbsp; Traders could buy stocks without fighting either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the Federal Reserve, or other central banks, are accommodative, that typically helps asset prices.&nbsp; If the banks are restrictive, then it can be a hinderance.&nbsp; &nbsp;Even though the FOMC declined to cut rates and to reduce quantitative tightening yesterday, they once again acknowledged that they are poised to do both at some point in the near future.&nbsp; Thus, even though their policies are currently neutral to restrictive, there is a valid reason to expect that those will shift to accommodative in the near future.&nbsp; Investors are forward looking, and the roughly 80% probability that futures markets are assigning to a June rate cut affirms that viewpoint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, the <em>prospect <\/em>of accommodative policies has outweighed the <em>current <\/em>restrictive bias since stocks have been successfully fighting the Fed for over a year.&nbsp; The carrot is outweighing the stick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cDon\u2019t fight the tape\u201d refers strictly to trends and momentum.\u00a0 When any tradeable asset enters a predictable trend \u2013 up or down \u2013 it behoves any trader or investor to respect the price action.\u00a0 When the market is sending a clear message, one should listen \u2013 at least in the short-term.\u00a0 Momentum stocks, and the funds that invest in them, have been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/money\/savingandinvesting\/momentum-etfs-hit-new-52-week-highs\/ar-BB1iVc3Z\">big winners recently<\/a>.\u00a0 Betting against them, and a wide range of global markets that have been driven by uptrends, has been a painful task.\u00a0 It is difficult to recall an environment where so many market leaders have managed to keep such long winning streaks over such a long period of time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Therein lies the problem with following trends.&nbsp; It is perhaps the easiest strategy to execute, but trends can reverse sharply and unpredictably. &nbsp;&nbsp;These trends have been particularly persistent \u2013 any given month\u2019s winners have been likely to differ little from the prior month\u2019s \u2013 but this is the sort of outcome that works until it stops working.&nbsp; Some other adages come into play here: \u201ctrees don\u2019t grow to the sky,\u201d \u201cno one ever went broke taking a profit,\u201d and \u201cbe fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.\u201d&nbsp; It is tough, if not dangerous, to advocate fighting the current trends, but one must show healthy respect for considerations that some of the trends may be fully-, if not over-extended, and the degree to whether greed has potentially outpaced fear.&nbsp; Taking some well-earned profits and\/or considering hedges is far different than fighting the tape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yesterday, during a <a href=\"https:\/\/now.asharq.com\/clips\/1738203\/%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%8A%D9%81-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%8A%D9%83-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%A3%D8%AF%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D8%A3%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%B3%D9%85%D8%B9%D9%87%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AF%D8%A9\/\">foreign media appearance<\/a> immediately after Chair Powell\u2019s press conference, I was asked a very probing question. \u00a0To paraphrase (and I only got the question in translation): \u201cIf the economy and markets are humming and inflation has improved but not yet at the Fed\u2019s target, then why cut rates?\u201d\u00a0 I replied that it was exactly the sort of question that I would have posed at the presser.\u00a0 Powell can reiterate his commitment to a 2% inflation target, but he and his colleagues seem willing to cut rates pre-emptively anyway.\u00a0 If the goal of rate cuts is to stimulate the economy, it doesn\u2019t seem to need much stimulation.\u00a0 The goal may be to \u201cnormalize\u201d rates, but \u201cnormal\u201d is a relative term.\u00a0 On a post-2008 basis, real rates are uncomfortably high; on a long-term historical basis, they are roughly normal now.\u00a0 (see chart below)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bottom line \u2013 it may not be timely or even sensible to fight either the Fed or the tape right now.&nbsp; But perhaps it\u2019s time to consider when either of those market determinants might change their footing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"552\" data-src=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/03\/Picture1-19.png\" alt=\"1-Year Real Interest Rate\" class=\"wp-image-11406 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/03\/Picture1-19.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/03\/Picture1-19-700x413.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/03\/Picture1-19-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/03\/Picture1-19-768x453.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/552;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Many market veterans favor one of two mantras: &#8220;don\u2019t fight the Fed,&#8221; and &#8220;don\u2019t fight the tape.&#8221;\u00a0Like many time-tested market adages, there is a valuable element of truth in both.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":8197,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[311,1303,291,314],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-11405","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-fed","15":"tag-federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell","16":"tag-macro","17":"tag-market-outlook","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) 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