{"id":11356,"date":"2024-03-20T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-20T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/uncategorized\/what-options-markets-expect-for-todays-fomc-meeting\/"},"modified":"2024-03-21T17:20:23","modified_gmt":"2024-03-21T17:20:23","slug":"what-options-markets-expect-for-todays-fomc-meeting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/what-options-markets-expect-for-todays-fomc-meeting\/","title":{"rendered":"What Options Markets Expect for Today’s FOMC Meeting"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This afternoon we have the most highly anticipated FOMC meeting since, well, the last one six weeks ago. Expectations for a rate cut are essentially nil, even if the probability of a June cut has crept back up to about 70%. Today\u2019s activity will be driven primarily by traders\u2019 interpretation of Chair Powell\u2019s demeanor, and the newest \u201cdot plot\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of now, a few hours ahead of the meeting, equity investors and options traders seem relatively unconcerned.  If they were nervous, we wouldn\u2019t have seen two prior days of rallies and a current reading of VIX below 14.  They appear to believe that the Summary of Economic Projections (aka SEP, or \u201cdot plot\u201d) will be benign and that Powell will once again be \u201cGoldilocks in a Suit<\/a>\u201d at the press conference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Using the prices of S&P 500 (SPX) index options as a guide for broad market sentiment, we see that a sanguine attitude, if not the continuing demand for \u201cFOMO insurance<\/a>\u201d, prevails.\u00a0 The IBKR Probability Lab shows that SPX options are assigning peak probabilities to options in the 5200 range, about 0.35% above current levels:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring March 20, 2024<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring March 22, 2024<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It has become fairly typical for major indices and stocks to be more heavily weighted to upside reactions than downside.\u00a0 An extended period of \u201cweaponized FOMO<\/a>\u201d will do that.\u00a0\u00a0 That said, at-money volatilities do indeed show a regard for the potential that volatility can result from today\u2019s activities.\u00a0\u00a0 The implied volatility for options expiring today is pricing in a move of just under 2.4%, with options expiring tomorrow and Friday pricing in average daily moves of about 1.3% and 1.1% respectively.\u00a0 The latter two readings imply that the bulk of any post-FOMC move will be felt today and ebb during the rest of the week.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SPX Volatility Term Structure<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"SPX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today\u2019s anticipated move is well above the 1.39% average move (in absolute value terms) that we see on FOMC days, while the following days\u2019 pricing may be underestimating the reaction that could occur over the rest of the week:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"1<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Option skews do reflect some degree of risk aversion.  Options expiring today, this Friday, next Thursday (markets are closed Friday for the Good Friday holiday) and at the next monthly expiration all show an asymmetric skew, with downside options sporting higher volatilities than their upside counterparts, and with shorter-term options showing steeper skews:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SPX Skews for Options Expiring March 20 (top), March 22nd<\/sup> (2nd<\/sup> from top), March 28th<\/sup> (3rd from top), April 19th<\/sup> (bottom)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"SPX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom line, options markets are not ignoring the risks of a significant move after today\u2019s meeting.  While there is a respect for the possibility that Chair Powell could upset the market\u2019s mojo, the prevailing sentiment is that he will once again outline the economy\u2019s pros and cons in such a way that traders can seize upon the parts of his comments that fit or amplify the current sanguine<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This afternoon we have the most highly anticipated FOMC meeting since, well, the last one six weeks ago. Today’s activity will be driven primarily by traders’ interpretation of Chair Powell’s demeanor, and the newest “dot plot.” <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":11364,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[145,147,18,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[793,314,935],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":["post-11356","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-options","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-fomc","tag-market-outlook","tag-options-market","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat Options Markets 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