{"id":10896,"date":"2024-03-04T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-04T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/uncategorized\/return-of-the-return-of-the-nihilists\/"},"modified":"2024-03-05T11:37:32","modified_gmt":"2024-03-05T11:37:32","slug":"return-of-the-return-of-the-nihilists","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/return-of-the-return-of-the-nihilists\/","title":{"rendered":"Return of the Return of the Nihilists?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I ran into a problem this morning.\u00a0 I wanted to title today\u2019s piece \u201cReturn of the Nihilists?\u201d, but it turned out that I wrote a piece with that title in August 2022.\u00a0 That was a follow-up piece to a February 2020 piece entitled \u201cConfessions of a Market Nihilist\u201d.\u00a0 Nihilism seems to be a nagging theme with me, particularly when we get into a market environment when we see indiscriminate, enthusiastic buying powered by FOMO.\u00a0 That said, the timing of those prior pieces proved auspicious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In February 2020, while noting that stocks were inexorably rising despite increasing concerns about the newly spreading coronavirus, we defined the term thusly:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>It is for that reason that I now consider myself a \u201cmarket nihilist\u201d.&nbsp; For those with neither a philosophical bent nor a love of \u201cThe Big Lebowski\u201d, allow me to define the term.&nbsp; Nihilism, derived from the Latin word for \u201cnothing\u201d, is defined as a philosophy of \u201cextreme skepticism maintaining that nothing in the world has a real existence.\u201d&nbsp; While I hardly espouse that view in my daily life, I have come to realize that if we substitute \u201cmarket\u201d for \u201cworld\u201d in the prior definition it pretty well sums up my attitude towards recent market activity<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I began using the term \u201cweaponized FOMO\u201d around the end of the prior year.\u00a0 The reasoning was that institutional investors needed to avoid being left behind by the bounce that began at the beginning of November, that led to the \u201cF\u201d in FOMO, \u201cFear\u201d, being an important driver of market gains.\u00a0 I used the term once more <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/video\/market-entered-weaponized-fomo-strategist-220157478.html\">in a recent TV appearance<\/a> to help explain why it seems that investors large and small are seemingly chasing an ever-narrowing list of market winners.\u00a0 If the broad market\u2019s performance is being driven increasingly by a narrow cadre of stocks, then investors feel the need to weigh those names more heavily in their own portfolios, and momentum traders follow in their wake.\u00a0 That leads to a feedback cycle \u2013 one we\u2019re seeing now.\u00a0 It\u2019s virtuous while it\u2019s working, treacherous when it\u2019s not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet if one is buying simply because things are going up, is that a sound rationale?&nbsp; It certainly can be for the aforementioned momentum chasers, especially if they are disciplined about risk management.&nbsp; (Check now to see if the latter condition applies to you.)&nbsp; But doesn\u2019t it also imply a certain degree of nihilism if you\u2019re buying something simply because it\u2019s going up, regardless of reason?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The obvious current poster child for nihilism is bitcoin.&nbsp; It seems to rise a few thousand dollars each day, with the proximate cause being the money flowing into the newly listed ETPs that track the product.&nbsp; But when I wake up on Monday morning, well before the US stock markets open, and see bitcoin up by $3000, or roughly 5%, it is far more likely that crypto traders are either front-running potential inflows, not responding to them, or simply chasing what has now become a very powerful rally.&nbsp; By the way, we see far more customer activity in crypto-related stocks and options, such as Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) and Coinbase (COIN), than we do in the ETPs, despite their net inflows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One might argue that it is worth chasing, say, Nvidia (NVDA), thanks to its recent track record of beating expectations, raising them, and beating the newly raised expectations in the next quarter.&nbsp; On a trailing P\/E basis, NVDA seems expensive (~70), but on a forward basis (~35), it\u2019s not atrocious considering its projected growth rate.&nbsp; For something like Super Micro Computer (SMCI), where the move has been almost parabolic, today\u2019s 25% rally on the news of its upcoming inclusion in the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) may be a bit excessive, but it is impossible to shrug off.&nbsp; (Traders with long memories may want to remember that Tesla (TSLA) had a similar trajectory up to and including its own addition to SPX, which became a phenomenal \u201csell-the-news\u201d moment for many.)&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sure, it\u2019s understandable why the chase is on, but less understandable why it is so turbocharged \u2013 particularly for cryptos.&nbsp; Trend-following can be a profitable strategy.&nbsp; Blindly chasing performance tends to be more fickle and less strategic.&nbsp; Consider carefully in which you might be engaging.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nihilism seems to be a nagging theme with me, particularly when we get into a market environment when we see indiscriminate, enthusiastic buying powered by FOMO.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":10897,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1150,145,146,147,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-10896","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-etps","8":"category-ibkr-market-insights","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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