Spotlight on semiconductor news today; and econ data later in the week

Briefing.com Summary:

*NVIDIA, AMD to pay 15% of China AI chip sales to U.S. government for export licenses.

*Fed’s Bowman supports potential three rate cuts before year-end.

*Spotlight this week will shine on key economic data: CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales

More companies will be reporting their quarterly results this week, but the spotlight is going to be shining on other developments this week. Specifically, it will be shining on economic data, the August 12 expiration date for the pause on the U.S.-China reciprocal tariffs, and Friday’s meeting in Alaska between President Trump and Russia’s President Putin.

That is all later this week. The market’s attention today has been fixated on the following reports:

• NVIDIA (NVDA) and Adv. Micro Devices (AMD) will pay the U.S. government 15% of their AI chip sales to China in exchange for export licenses, according to FT.
• Fed Governor Bowman (FOMC voter) reaffirmed her belief that three rate cuts could be in order before the end of the year.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said trade tariffs could go down as trade balances improve, and most trade talks could be done by October, according to Nikkei.
• Micron (MU) issued fiscal Q4 (Aug) EPS and revenue guidance that is above consensus, citing improved pricing and strong execution.

What the market also remains fixated on is the performance of the mega-cap stocks and the resilience of “the market” to selling interest, notwithstanding a rising level of bearish sentiment and a growing number of calls that it is due for a pullback.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up five points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up seven points and are trading fractionally above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 64 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value.

These indications point to a fairly level start coming off Friday’s move, which culminated in a new record high for the Nasdaq Composite. The S&P 500 just barely missed a record closing high.

There isn’t any economic data of note today, but that will change tomorrow with the release of the July Consumer Price Index. The Producer Price Index will be out Thursday, and the July Retail Sales Report will be released on Friday.

Treasuries are tip-toeing into the week as well. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.76%, while the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.27%.

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Originally Posted August 11, 2025 – Spotlight on semiconductor news today; and econ data later in the week