Back-to-School Buzz: Spending Expected to Fall From 2023’s Record Level

• Retail sales were strong in June, but some companies report a more cautious consumer
• The back-to-school shopping season is critical for many retailers, and we’ll hear from many Consumer Staples and Discretionary firms in the coming weeks
• 90s fashion trends back in vogue and a possible PC refresh cycle (care of AI) are tailwinds

Consumers are pushing back. After years of accepting rising prices at the grocery store, higher travel costs, and luxury goods turning increasingly unaffordable, there are emerging signs that individuals and families have had enough. So far this earnings season, the consumer remains resilient despite rising credit card delinquencies, but has turned more choosey in their purchases, forcing some industries to rethink their pricing strategies.¹ At the same time, record-high TSA checkpoint data underscores some strength, making for an uncertain macro backdrop.²

CEO Speak

As for the word on the street, the CEOs of PepsiCo (PEP) and Conagra Brands (CAG) both pointed to a more discerning consumer with Conagra’s CEO reporting that shoppers across the income spectrum have exhibited “value-seeking behavior.”³ Then just recently, some high-end brands, namely LVMH (LVMH) and French luxury goods maker Kering, reported slipping sales globally.⁴

Retail Sales Point to Strength, Particularly in E-Commerce

All that didn’t stop Americans from shopping at a solid clip in June.⁵ The U.S. Census Bureau’s Retail Sales for last month underscored that while folks feel some angst, they are still spending away. We won’t hear from many of the big retailers until the middle of August, though we will get an early read on e-commerce spending, which was robust in June, when Amazon (AMZN) issues its Q2 report Thursday night this week. 

The School Bus Is on the Way

In the here and now, the back-to-school shopping season is in full swing. If you have kiddos going back to the classroom and haven’t checked out all the deals, time is ticking. The National Retail Federation (NRF) reports that more than half of back-to-school and back-to-college shoppers have already begun buying items for the upcoming semester – and that was as of early July!

The Dog Days of Summer Mean Big Business

This isn’t child’s play either. Cash spent on preparing for the upcoming school year and college semester is big money. The back-to-school shopping season is the second-largest spending event on the calendar; only the winter holiday period sees more consumer activity, per the NRF.⁶ Amazon and Target (TGT) already tried to jumpstart spending via their respective promotions (Prime Day 2024 and Circle Week), and it’s likely that more deals will be available before the first day of school. 

A Spending Dip

Investors know that most economic data is an expectations game. According to the NRF’s annual survey, total back-to-school spending among families with children in elementary through high school plan to spend $875 per household, on average, which would be a $15 drop from last year’s figure.⁷ That of course includes the classroom staples, but also more discretionary items such as trendy new clothes, shoes, accessories, and electronics. 

A 90s Flashback with a Hint of AI

2024’s season will be particularly pivotal as some analysts expect a PC refresh cycle as AI integrations are rolled out – that will be a key variable in back-to-college spending. As for the fashion scene, the revenge of the 90s has been a boon for Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) and Gap (GPS). Though shares of those two mall magnates are off their year-to-date highs, stock-price gains are in the triple digits on a 1-year basis.⁸

Big picture, total back-to-school spending is forecast to approach $39 billion, second only to last year’s all-time high of $41.5 billion.⁹

Earnings on Tap

Both the Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary sectors will be in focus starting on August 13. That’s when Home Depot (HD) reports second-quarter results. While home improvement retail is out of the spotlight when it comes to back-to-school trends, it could provide important clues on the overall health of household spending. 

Walmart (WMT)’s Q2 numbers hit the tape on the morning of Thursday, August 15. Of course, we won’t hear the full extent of the school-related shopping period, and that will make guidance and full-year outlooks from the world’s biggest retailers all the more important. Here are other earnings dates according to Wall Street Horizon to mark on your calendar, companies marked with an * are unconfirmed (as of July 30) but are estimated based on historical reporting patterns:​

• July 31: Etsy (ETSY)
• August 1: Wayfair (W), Amazon (AMZN)
• August 13: Home Depot (HD)
• August 15: Walmart (WMT)
• August 20: Lowe’s (LOW)*, Macy’s (M)*
• August 21: Target (TGT), TJX Companies (TJX), Foot Locker (FL)*, Urban Outfitters (URBN)
• August 22: Gap (GPS)*, Nordstrom (JWN)*
• August 23: The Buckle (BKE)*
• August 27: Shoe Carnival (SCVL)*
• August 28: Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)*, Bath & Body Works (BBWI)
• August 29: Burlington Stores (BURL)*, Dollar General (DG)*, Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

After the earnings deluge, conference season heats back up in September. A slew of key industry gatherings will shed further light on how spending activities among varying income-level households evolve as the summer fades into the sunset.

The Bottom Line

A Fed meeting, the July jobs report, and the rest of the Magnificent Seven’s earnings will rightly make the big headlines, but investors should stay tuned to the latest household spending trends. We are in the middle of the second most important shopping season of the year, and families continue to spend, but signs emerge that value is becoming a higher priority.

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Originally Posted July 31, 2024 – Back-to-School Buzz: Spending Expected to Fall From 2023’s Record Level​

1 Household Debt Rose by $184 Billion in Q1 2024; Delinquency Transition Rates Increased Across All Debt Types, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, May 14, 2024, https://www.newyorkfed.org
2 Record 3 million passengers passed through TSA checkpoints Sunday after July 4th, Khristopher J. Brooks, CBS News, July 8, 2024, https://www.cbsnews.com
3 Consumers push back on price hikes, Nathan Bomey, July 11, 2024, https://www.axios.com
4 Shares in LVMH and Kering down as shoppers rein in luxury spending, The Guardian, Sarah Butler, July 24, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com
5 US retail sales report showcases consumer, economic resilience, Reuters, Lucia Mutikani, July 16, 2024, https://www.reuters.com
6 Majority of Back-to-Class Shoppers Have Already Begun Purchasing School Items, National Retail Federation, July 11, 2024, https://nrf.com
7 Majority of Back-to-Class Shoppers Have Already Begun Purchasing School Items, National Retail Federation, July 11, 2024, https://nrf.com
8 ANF, StockCharts, July 30, 2024, http://stockcharts.com
9 Majority of Back-to-Class Shoppers Have Already Begun Purchasing School Items, National Retail Federation, July 11, 2024, https://nrf.com ​​​