The probability of the Fed pausing in December reached a fresh high of 56% on Saturday, during an active trading weekend. The odds have shifted materially after a series of speakers from the central bank voiced worries about inflation that have risen in recent months. The heavier cost forces influenced skepticism that a reduction next month would be prudent in light of a 3-handle on the Consumer Price Index. Indeed, the chance of a hold rose from just 30% last Wednesday to north of 50% on Friday. Approximately 61,000 contracts are open that are tied to the final US rate decision of 2025.
Forecasters Are Bullish Stocks, Bearish Crypto
Other contracts with strong interest in recent days have been whether futures prices on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial indices, and Bitcoin as well as Ethereum. Investors are expecting higher stocks by year-end, according to current pricing, but that same confidence isn’t extending to crypto, with just 47% odds that Bitcoin will finish 2025 above 95k; it traded close to 96k earlier today. Separately, the likelihood of a flip in the lower chamber of Congress remains at an elevated 67%.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 17, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
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