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Election Day Sends Forecast Volumes to YTD Record Above 8.9 Million: Nov. 4, 2025

Election Day Sends Forecast Volumes to YTD Record Above 8.9 Million: Nov. 4, 2025

Posted November 4, 2025 at 12:28 pm

Jose Torres
IBKR Macroeconomics

Election Day is here and forecast volumes are currently north of 8.9 million with plenty of hours to go. Transactions have posted their second consecutive year-to-date record after yesterday’s tally finished off at 4.096 million. Odds across the most heavily traded contests have remained relatively unchanged, with NYC’s Mamdani leading at 90%, New Jersey’s Sherrill at 82% and Virginia’s Spanberger at 97%. Open contracts across the three races total approximately 22.6 million, 3.698 million and 1.041 million at the moment.

IBKR forecastTrader probabilities of each mayor candidate in New York city winning
IBKR forecastTrader probabilities of each candidate's success in NJ governor race
IBKR forecastTrader probabilities of each candidate's success in Virginia governor race

Source for images: ForecastExPast performance is not indicative of future results

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 4, 2025.

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here

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